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Old 2019-07-28, 23:31   #12
ewmayer
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Update on the above game ... tried several variants starting at move 16, and whether I "let the machine play itself" from that point or take an occasional alternate-move flyer myself, the outcome in every case was a slow bleed of material by White leading to Black winning. The upshot seems to be that White trading its Bishop pair for Black's Knights is a bad trade, likely because a Bishop potentially controls more squares - max 14 - than a Knight's 8. Perhaps a Bobby Fischer could find a way to use White's 2 knights to advance it pawns while picking off some of Black's material ... but I'd be interested in the outcome of the above game state input to a top-flight computer program, playing itself starting with that as initial state. Since any chess engine worth its salt will have some random slating built in - I notice this even with MacChess - maybe a kind of Monte Carlo approach, do a bunch of games starting from that initial state, see what % is won by Black and White, respectively.
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Old 2019-07-29, 02:41   #13
LaurV
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Black is for sure better here, two pawn islands versus white's 3 pawn islands, plus the bishop pair, which is more valuable for the finals where the game is played on both sides of the board. Sorry for this(TM).

I would try repositioning the knights, or Rad1 to support advancing the pawns from e3, d4, counter its R in d8, or (if its "best" is Bg4 as you said) maybe counter it with h3. However, I didn't put much thinking into it.

Are engines allowed?

Last fiddled with by LaurV on 2019-07-29 at 02:42 Reason: spacing
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Old 2019-07-29, 19:27   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LaurV View Post
Are engines allowed?
Sure - as I said, it would be very interesting to do a Monte Carlo analysis starting from the game state in question ... both White and Black played with presumably equal strength by the computer, what % of games does each win?
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Old 2019-07-29, 20:03   #15
xilman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulunderwood View Post
I would play b3 ...
I would play badly.
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Old 2019-08-04, 17:41   #16
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After spending some hours Sunday evening arguing with a chess engine and a tea cup, we (all tree) agreed that at perfect play it is most probably a draw. Black has the "advantage" all the time (engine shows negative numbers), but not enough to push it to a win. The best moves white can play now seem to be 16.Ne4. 16.Rac1, or 16.Kf2. Some moves he will most probably give up the game include 16.[h4,Na4,Nd2,Rfc1,Rf2,Rfe1] together with other obvious moves when he loses. Unclear if white loses or draw, are 16.[a3, b3,e4,h3,Rad1,Rfd1]. At good play for black, white has no much chance to win, black can force draw by repetition on many variants by hunting the rooks with the bishops. The "so feared" black Bg4 is a bad move, on most of the variants where white plays well.

Last fiddled with by LaurV on 2019-08-04 at 17:43
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Old 2019-08-06, 14:14   #17
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Yes 16. Kf2 would be an attempt to maintain White's superiority over the central squares.
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