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Old 2022-09-30, 19:04   #419
xilman
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Not a hope in hell for at least 10 years.
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Old 2022-09-30, 19:31   #420
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xilman View Post
Not a hope in hell for at least 10 years.
Shall we wager?
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Old 2022-09-30, 19:33   #421
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Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
As I understand it, the "technical ability" required to blow up the pipelines is minimal. You need to know the location of the pipelines. The Russians qualify on that score. You need bombs which can be detonated remotely. A few sea mines would probably suffice. You need to plant the bombs. The explosions occurred around 70 meters deep. Scuba divers could do it, though they'd have to go through decompression during ascent to avoid "the bends."
Heard several comments from various sources:
1. The owner of the pipeline also has equipment that can be easily positioned inside the pipeline - the service robots. This would of course have a consequence of blowouts directed outwards, when inspectors will have access to the sites.

2. Scuba divers could do it, and at that depth helium-oxygen (or other) mix is the usual procedure. Professional diver said there was nothing to it. And that one can hide the operation with a small yacht with dancing girls on the deck while a couple divers can do the job, also see below.

3. The payload could be much less than a lot of TNT. The diver said he had worked on pipeline repairs in his professional life and the standard tool for cutting is two semicircular inward-directed burn "yoke" with hexogen or similar and a similar pipe can be cut with just several kilos of hexogen. The most effective place is usually the 12-meter-spaced welding spaces - they are not covered with additional layers (here, from horse's mouth).

4. Pipes are expected to be trenched and covered with rocks and gravel for ~2 meters, so exposure of the pipe is still needed with some pressure blowers or similar. Don't know if there is control after all pipe being carefully trenched. There could be negligence or erosion and pipe may be exposed somewhere, who knows?

5. Russia laid last segments with a discount operator (maybe their own), when a respectable contractor pulled out of the project because of sanctions; the quality of some segments may have been substandard.
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Old 2022-09-30, 19:35   #422
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Originally Posted by xilman View Post
Very well. I will start with Poland.
Russia started with the US. It's their lie, and they're sticking to it.

Meanwhile, Russia has officially pretended to annex the areas of Ukraine they said they would. And Putin has already said he'd use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if they tried to take those areas back.

Any guess on whether or when Vlad the Insane will go nuclear? Or how? (He has options - tactical nukes on the battlefield, or either tactical or stratgic nukes to inflict massive civilian casualties and/or decapitate Ukraine's government.)

And if/when Putin goes nuclear, how will the US and NATO respond?

EDIT: It seems the Ukrainians have a message for the thousands of occupiers in the city of Lyman, in the Donetsk region that Vlad the Insane recently fantasized as being part of Russia.

I don't know Russian. Perhaps someone could translate.

ั‚ั‹ ะพะบั€ัƒะถะตะฝ

ะฒั‹ะนั‚ะธ ั ะฟะพะดะฝัั‚ั‹ะผะธ ั€ัƒะบะฐะผะธ

Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 2022-10-01 at 13:36
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Old 2022-09-30, 19:58   #423
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Batalov View Post
Heard several comments from various sources:
<snip>
3. The payload could be much less than a lot of TNT. The diver said he had worked on pipeline repairs in his professional life and the standard tool for cutting is two semicircular inward-directed burn "yoke" with hexogen or similar and a similar pipe can be cut with just several kilos of hexogen. The most effective place is usually the 12-meter-spaced welding spaces - they are not covered with additional layers (here, from horse's mouth).
<snip>
So a small charge could do the job by cutting the pipe. I'm not sure whether this is consistent with the data. I read something from IIRC a Danish official that said the seismograph readings were similar to those of explosions on the order of 100 kg of dynamite. (I would guess TNT, but "dynamite" might be generic for high explosives.)
Quote:
5. Russia laid last segments with a discount operator (maybe their own), when a respectable contractor pulled out of the project because of sanctions; the quality of some segments may have been substandard.
Hmm, "one of their own" might lead to a wave of mysterious deaths among higher-ups in the relevant industries...
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Old 2022-10-01, 17:26   #424
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
Russia started with the US. It's their lie, and they're sticking to it.

Meanwhile, Russia has officially pretended to annex the areas of Ukraine they said they would. And Putin has already said he'd use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if they tried to take those areas back.

Any guess on whether or when Vlad the Insane will go nuclear? Or how? (He has options - tactical nukes on the battlefield, or either tactical or stratgic nukes to inflict massive civilian casualties and/or decapitate Ukraine's government.)

And if/when Putin goes nuclear, how will the US and NATO respond?

EDIT: It seems the Ukrainians have a message for the thousands of occupiers in the city of Lyman, in the Donetsk region that Vlad the Insane recently fantasized as being part of Russia.

I don't know Russian. Perhaps someone could translate.

ั‚ั‹ ะพะบั€ัƒะถะตะฝ

ะฒั‹ะนั‚ะธ ั ะฟะพะดะฝัั‚ั‹ะผะธ ั€ัƒะบะฐะผะธ
Quote:
you are surrounded

come out with your hands up
And Russia has officially withdrawn troop from Lyman (which in non Russian speak means they are running away leaving material behind). What a victory one day after the annexation.

I hope Putin wonโ€™t use nukes. He might use massive bombings (at least try, Iโ€™m not sure they can risk using bombers over Ukraine). And if he goes nukes, I hope NATO will use aircraft over Ukraine to destroy the rest of the second army of the world.
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Old 2022-10-02, 00:46   #425
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ldesnogu View Post
And Russia has officially withdrawn troop from Lyman (which in non Russian speak means they are running away leaving material behind). What a victory one day after the annexation.
The Russian claims of withdrawing troops from the Lyman area seem inconsistent with the Ukrainian claims they had them surrounded. Such is the "fog of war."

Quote:
I hope Putin wonโ€™t use nukes. He might use massive bombings (at least try, Iโ€™m not sure they can risk using bombers over Ukraine). And if he goes nukes, I hope NATO will use aircraft over Ukraine to destroy the rest of the second army of the world.
I think we can rule out Russia doing massive aerial bombings in Ukraine. Since almost the start of the war, Russian pilots haven't been flying over Ukraine, for fear of being shot down. I doubt Putin's pretense of annexation will change the situation in the air. Russia has been using heavy artillery bombardments and missiles, especially against civilians and civilian infrastructure. This will certainly continue.
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Old 2022-10-02, 08:10   #426
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
Russia has been using heavy artillery bombardments and missiles, especially against civilians and civilian infrastructure. This will certainly continue.
Their stock is very likely lower than theyโ€™d like it to be and Iโ€™m not sure they can sustain heavy use as they did in the last months. Thatโ€™s why I am wondering what their next move will be: tactical nuke, chemical weapons, very large bomb (can they be sent with a missile or do they need a bomber?), carefully selected targets for whatโ€™s left of their accurate missiles. Pick your poison
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Old 2022-10-02, 13:32   #427
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ldesnogu View Post
Their stock is very likely lower than theyโ€™d like it to be and Iโ€™m not sure they can sustain heavy use as they did in the last months.
That likely explains why Russia recently bought back a lot of old artillery shells, rockets, and rocket launchers the USSR had sold to North Korea.
Quote:
Thatโ€™s why I am wondering what their next move will be: tactical nuke, chemical weapons, very large bomb (can they be sent with a missile or do they need a bomber?), carefully selected targets for whatโ€™s left of their accurate missiles. Pick your poison
Shortly after Putin started his special military disaster in Ukraine, propagandist Dmitry Kiselyov asked on Russia-1, "Why do we need a world if Russia is not in it?"

More recently, former PM Dmitry Medvedev threatened "doomsday for mankind" if Russia headed toward collapse, as described in this post.

IMO such threats are tantamount to an admission that they're going to lose, and certainly an admission that they know they do not have right on their side.

It also makes me wonder, what hints our diplomats might have dropped to the Russian higher-ups about what kind of "catastrophic consequences" would ensue because "The United States will respond decisively" should Russia use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. If the "doomsday" threats are taken seriously, consequences that would threaten the current regime might result in general nuclear war.

So, how about threats to their personal wealth? "If a nuclear weapon is detonated, you all will lose everything you own, down to the last groat. Oh, and by the way, you might want to check on the following secret accounts you have. Or thought were secret, and thought you had. Incidentally, we are watching your other assets. If you try to move or liquidate them, they will become as smoke in the wind."
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Old 2022-10-02, 14:21   #428
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I wonder how worried Putin really is about the โ€œdomesdayโ€ scenario and western retaliation sitting in his luxury bunker most likely with a self sustaining eco system:

https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/w...2718b45d7.html

So what if 2/3 of the world population would perish. That still leaves a couple of billion people left in remote areas to enslave and rule around the world.

Last fiddled with by a1call on 2022-10-02 at 14:35
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Old 2022-10-02, 15:40   #429
xilman
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Originally Posted by a1call View Post
I wonder how worried Putin really is about the โ€œdomesdayโ€ scenario and western retaliation sitting in his luxury bunker most likely with a self sustaining eco system:

https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/w...2718b45d7.html
Bunker-buster weapons exist.
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