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Old 2017-05-05, 20:15   #24
chalsall
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"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002
Barbados

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Quote:
Originally Posted by CRGreathouse View Post
I'm loathe to draw conclusion based on Monty Hall. I've seen many formulations which are underspecified, and the actual practice on the show does not match the mathematical version generally/always presented, so this seems like a questionable example to generalize from.
Again, the point I was /trying/ to make is that statistics can be exceedingly counter-intuitive.

Humans are great at pattern recognition, but sometimes they perceive things which aren't really there. They make (sometimes bad) decisions based on this.

This was fine when our ancestors ran from a field thinking they had seen a predator; in such cases a "false positive" didn't have a huge amount of downside compared to a "false negative".
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