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Old 2015-10-30, 17:21   #1
petrw1
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"Wayne"
Nov 2006
Saskatchewan, Canada

105108 Posts
Default On to 999M -- to 70 Bits

Basically I'm looking at the effort remaining to factor all exponents to 999M to 70 bits
I defined the lower bound as 30M but since all exponents from 30M to 100M are already at 70 bits I am only looking at the 100-999M ranges.

My spreadsheet takes the numbers from: http://www.mersenne.ca/status/tf/0/0/2/0
I've been ciphering and have a few months of stats now....since the above report has been accurate and complete:
1. I take the number of exponents currently at each bit level below 70;
2. I calculate the GhzDays to take those to the next bit level. To make it manageable I:
-- use the GhzDays to TF the 'mean' exponent up 1 bit level
-- multiple the count by that number
-- and 'ass-u-me' that range will average out
3. Calculate the expected number to be factored and carry the remaining to the next bit level column
4. Continue up to to 70 bits.

And here is a 3-month summary:

Code:
	66-Exp	        66-Days	67-Exp	        67-Days	        68-Exp	        68-Days	        69-Exp	        69-Days	        Total-Days
Aug-24	8,762,562	351,170	14,371,316	1,135,950	16,599,700	2,491,221	16,636,680	5,019,375	8,997,716
Sep-30	7,931,520	312,019	13,685,155	1,103,546	16,485,174	2,473,561	16,527,300	4,987,211	8,876,337
Oct-30	6,996,815	275,606	13,337,018	1,086,349	16,373,884	2,457,974	16,405,450	4,946,490	8,766,419
The 66-Exp is the current number of exponents at the 66 bit-level.
The 67-Exp is the current number at the 67 bit-level plus the expected exponents to move up as un-factored from the 66 bit-level.
At the current linear rate of 100,000 GhzDays per Month we have over 7 years to go....Moore's Law to the rescue.
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