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Old 2014-02-07, 07:20   #8
CRGreathouse's Avatar
Aug 2006

5,987 Posts

First of all, this is a bit premature -- the effects won't really be felt until the ACA's major provisions are turned on in 2016.

Second, everyone who knew what they were talking about expected the ACA to reduce the number of hours worked. The issue here is that a more careful study suggests that the loss (vs. the pre-ACA legal landscape) will be closer to 1% than 0.5% (from 1 million FTEs to 2 million FTEs). Of course we'll surely learn more once it actually happens.

More interesting to me is the expected outlay in government healthcare spending, which the report predicts to increase by 1% of GDP from 2015 to 2024:

Outlays for the major health care programs—Medicare (net of premiums and other offsetting receipts), Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies offered through health insurance exchanges and related spending—soon exceed outlays for Social Security. Spending for those programs is estimated to total 5.1 percent of GDP in 2015 and to grow rapidly in coming years because of changes mandated by the Affordable Care Act, reaching 6.1 percent of GDP in 2024.
No doubt Republicans will say this is bad (spending more than we can afford) and Democrats will says it's good (more total healthcare).

(There are more interesting parts of the report, but I'll limit myself to parts related to the ACA here.)
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