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Old 2014-02-07, 06:31   #6
cheesehead's Avatar
"Richard B. Woods"
Aug 2002
Wisconsin USA

22·3·641 Posts

Originally Posted by ewmayer View Post
As far as the real world is concerned, the following trio of articles paints a less happy picture:
... and the first one paints a misleading picture.


"FACT CHECK: Anti-Obamacare chorus is off key"
(with my underline emphasis)
WASHINGTON (AP) — New estimates that President Barack Obama's health care law will encourage millions of Americans to leave the workforce or reduce their work hours have touched off an I-told-you-so chorus from Republicans, who've claimed all along that the law will kill jobs. But some aren't telling it straight.

The analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office predicts the law will give several million people an opportunity to work less or not at all, because they won't be stuck in jobs just for the sake of keeping the health insurance they get from employers. To some Republicans, that amounts to "wreaking havoc on working families," ''dire consequences for workers" and a shower of pink slips across the land — conclusions unsupported by the report.

The study estimates that the workforce will be reduced by the equivalent of 2.3 million full-time workers by 2021 as people choose to leave it. More would take early retirement, work fewer hours or otherwise rearrange their work-home balance to take advantage of new subsidies for health insurance and new markets for individual policies that don't depend on having a job.

In a key point overlooked in the GOP response, the report says, "The estimated reduction stems almost entirely from a net decline in the amount of labor that workers choose to supply, rather than from a net drop in businesses' demand for labor."

In other words, workers aren't being laid off. They are taking themselves out of the workforce, in many cases opening job opportunities for others.

As if recognizing that fellow Republicans were getting a bit overheated, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, House Budget Committee chairman, introduced a reality check when questioning Douglas Elmendorf, budget office director, during a hearing Wednesday. "So just to understand this, it's not that employers are laying people off, it's that ... people aren't working in the workforce, aren't supplying labor," he posited.

. . .

... Of more consequence is the expectation that millions will take themselves voluntarily out of the labor force because they can afford to.

The budget office forecast that over the next several years, there will be plenty of unemployed people available to fill those jobs.
But over the longer term as the economy improves, the supply will shrink, and because of that, total employment and the number of hours people work will be less than it would have been without the health care law.
(BTW, how do Republicans propose to significantly lower health care costs while not having any health-care-related workers laid off?)

. . .

But the predicted withdrawal from the labor market is no more a killer of jobs than today's surge of retirements by baby boomers entering old age. If anything, it could open job opportunities for people who can't get in the workforce now.
Some Republicans would have you believe that the retirement of Baby Boomers is a negative consequence of the Affordable Care Act. Don't fall for their con.

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2014-02-07 at 06:33
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