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Old 2021-10-02, 16:01   #1
1976 Toyota Corona years forever!
petrw1's Avatar
Nov 2006
Saskatchewan, Canada

19×263 Posts
Default Is it feasible to define a simple P-1 probability "approximator"?

I know there is a very robust accurate P-1 probability calculator here.

But I'd like to find a simplified version that is still "pretty close"; and that can be used as a single formula or function.
At first glance it does not seem like it should be very hard.
There are only 4 variables:
- Exponent
- Current TF Bit level
- Bound 1
- Bound 2
However, it has eluded my synapses.

I track all my P1 work for my Under-2000 sub-project in an Excel spread sheet (sorry, I'm a geek from the 80's).
A big part of this project is determining whether is it more efficient to find the remining required factors with TF or with P-1.
(Or more accurately how much more of each and in what order?)
Where I determine I need more P-1, the bigger question is: "How much more?"
Or more specifically what are the optimal bounds that will produce the desired number of factors with the least total work effort.

My vision is to have a spreadsheet where I:
(I actually already have this ... but step 2 below is inefficient and poorly done)

1. Download the current P-1 work from here
2. Add a column with a "neat and tidy" P-1 estimator formula for the current success rate.
3. Add another few columns with proposed bounds, success rates and work effort
4. Determine which new bounds will generate the required number of factors with the least total work effort.

I can easily complete steps 1, 3 and 4. I just have not had any luck creating a useful simpler estimator.

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