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Old 2020-07-04, 20:49   #946
kriesel's Avatar
Mar 2017
US midwest

10001010000112 Posts

Originally Posted by ewmayer View Post
It's also useful - and jaw-dropping - to compare state-by-state within the US ...
Compared to the above-charted Fab Five US states, Brazil looks like heaven! On a per-capita basis, its 'scary' 1000-new-cases-per day is around 1/30th that of California. Iraq, 100 new cases/day? Roughly 1.5% of CA's new-case rate.
The link I posted was DEATH rate, not case rate. Iraq was ramping up quickly. The previous time I looked at it they were at 20, not 100. Either they bend the curve or they're in big trouble in a matter of weeks. Iraq has a population that's about 11.6% of the US, so it scales to a similar per capita death rate as the US had 2 weeks ago or 5 months ago. Iraq's most recent week of graphed results looks encouragingly flattening. The US peaked around 2000 deaths/day, or about 6.1/million/day. Brazil is plateaued at 1000+/day, ~4.7/million/day. How accurate or comparable the counting methods are is a big question. Using your visualization site, new deaths averaged over a week, several South American nations have the highest per capita rates. Bolivia is ramping steeply upward. Chile is almost off the top of the chart.

It's also useful to compare on a much smaller geographical scale. Census tract 16.03 is the area near the Wisconsin capitol square where there were George Floyd / BLM protests repeatedly, morphing after dark into rioting, vandalism and looting hundreds of stores (with perhaps someday nearly half of those stores ever reopening). Case rate went up over 1,250% in 2 weeks there. It's also an area of off-campus student housing and various bars, high population density, etc. A nearby tract had a 500% increase.

Many other tracts had far lower percentage increases, mostly less than doubling.

Tract 29 and another was unchanged for the same period.
Tract 106 is mostly rural and had a 10% decline despite operating under a recent phase of statewide reopening.

106 and 16.03 are within 10 miles of each other, but at opposite extremes in the trend. Some of the tracts' rates are based on very small case counts on small populations; 106's recent rate works out to about 7 cases.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2020-07-04 at 21:06
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