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Old 2021-06-28, 02:14   #20
kriesel's Avatar
Mar 2017
US midwest

2·11·277 Posts

By using the history of reaching the 56M milestone, I believe most if not all those effects are well allowed for. The last bit might see a little more aggressive approach because of the priority of Mp48* over a minor 1M milestone. That would have the effect of moving the completion date earlier than the projection, and indicates the odds of reaching it this year are excellent. Any slowdown of completion rate due to run time scaling is modest compared to the calendar margin. (57885161/56M)^2.1 ~ 1.072. It is potentially offset by increased interest or additional DC signups or hardware upgrade easily. If it is not offset at all, it amounts to ~7.2% of 3.4 months = about a week later. That still leaves more than 2.5 months margin to complete it this year. Completing 58M this calendar year seems very likely, and 59M a moderate possibility.

But you know what an estimate is. It's a value we use, with caution, even though we know it is wrong.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-06-28 at 02:15
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