View Single Post
Old 2017-05-03, 09:43   #13
CRGreathouse's Avatar
Aug 2006

3·1,987 Posts

Originally Posted by schickel View Post
So, if there's a ~37% chance of not drawing one number in 1000 draws, what would be the odds of missing a win in the following scenario: take 10 different numbers and play them for 100 draws.

Intuition would seem to say that 10(numbers)x100(draws) = 1000 "trials" which would seemingly make it a certainty that you would hit once, but I don't know enough about how to calculate the odds in that case.
It doesn't matter what numbers you pick, the odds are the same. Whether you pick 734 a thousand times or 000 then 001 then 002 then ... then 998 then 999, the chance that you don't win any is ~37%, the chance that you win once is ~37%, the chance that you win twice is ~18%, the chance that you win three times is ~6.1%, the chance that you win four times is 1.5%, and so on.
CRGreathouse is offline   Reply With Quote