I think the probability of finding a factor of M34011449 between 2^62 and 2^68 is about 5%. (Is that a good guess?) Assuming that the probability of finding a factor of M34011449 stays relatively constant throughout the trial factoring (though it probably goes down a small amount since the size of the potential factors increases, and maybe other speed reasons) and estimating that with the Athlon2600@2135MHz it would take 48 hours to complete the factoring in that range (I think that's in the ballpark), the probability of finding a factor in the first 12 minutes is
(5/100)*(12/60)/48 = 1 in 4800, or 0.021%
Don't bomb my house if I'm way off, but you owe me money if I'm close.
