Here's part of the consolidated move analysis that I've doublechecked (which is not to say that you guys could not find a mistake). I am pleased to show that in this part (33 ... Kxe6) of the movetree, we have a forced win of either the a5pawn or a piece, except that there is one branch at move 38 that I haven't finished.
(I'll be posting the NOT YET DOUBLECHECKED parts as soon as I've finished them.)
If [B]33 Nxc8[/B]
If [B]33 ... Nxc8 34 Bh3[/B]
If [B]34 ... [/B] (THIS PORTION IS NOT YET DOUBLECHECKED)
If [B]33 ... Kxe6[/B].
We can pin the N/e7 to Black's king, then use that to pull his B away from a5defending duty long enough to nab the apawn. That requires persuading Black to move his king to f7, [I]while always being on guard not to allow Black to skewer our K and R with his B.[/I] (Moving our K off the a7g1 diagonal would be a good way to avoid the skewer, but it'll be tough to find a place where we can afford to spend that tempo while maintaining the pin.)
[B]34 Bh3+[/B] gives our king another flight square in case of (or to avoid) future check from Bd4+ or Bc5+, _and_ reduces the number of squares from which the Black king can defend the N/e7.
If [B]34 ... Kf6[/B] (or ... Kf7 35 Rb7) [B]35 Rb6+ Kf7 36 Rb7[/B]. [I](Note that we place our rook on the a7g1 diagonal _only_ when giving check, allowing Black no chance to skewer)[/I] Now the N/e7 is both pinned and doubleattacked, forcing Black to use his B to defend it.
[B]36 ... Bb4 (or Bf7) 37 Nxe7 Bxe7[/B]. Now we've (1) pulled the B off a5defending duty and (2) pinned it to the king, allowing us to put our rook on the a7g1 diagonal without immediate skewer.
[B]38 Ra7[/B] threatens 39 Rxa5, [I]but the R is now on the same diagonal as our K, so before Black's B can move again, we must remember to move our K or R[/I].
Black can protect a5 with his N from b3 or c4, so we have to devise a way to drive it away from those two positions.
If [B]38 ... Nb3 39 [/B] (THIS BRANCH IS NOT YET DOUBLECHECKED, though I expect it also to result in our capture of either the a5pawn or a piece)
If [B]38 ... Nc4 39 Bf1[/B] chases the knight away from a5guard duty, but not before possible complications if Black unpins his B.
If [B]39 ... Ke8 or Kf6 or Kf8 (not ... Ke6 40 Bxc4+)[/B] threatens the ... Bxc5+ skewer. but we now have just one tempo for moving our king because Black can't defend both of our attack targets (a5 and c4) with one move.
[B]40 Kg2[/B]. Next we will soon capture one of our targets  but only after complications in one case.
If [B]40 ... any Kmove or pawnmove 41 Bxc4[/B]
If [B]40 ... Bc5 41 Ra8+ (or Ra6+) Kmoves 42 Bxc4[/B]
If [B]40 ... any Bmove except Bc5 41 Bxc4[/B]
If [B]40 ... any Nmove except Nf3+ 41 Rxa5[/B]
If [B]40 ... Ne3+[/B] Black complicates, but as far as I've analyzed none can harm us, and we will eventually succeed in capturing at least one of our targets on a5 and c4.
[B]41 Kf2[/B]. We can place our king back on the dark diagonal because it's shielded by the N/e3 from a check via ... Bc5.
If [B]41 ... Bc5 42 Rxa5[/B]. We can nab the pawn here because [I](rather amazingly) [U]none[/U] of the eight possible discovered checks from 42 ... Nmove can harm us![/I]
If [B]42 ... Nc2+ 43 Rxc5[/B]
If [B]42 ... Nc4+ 43 Rxc5[/B]
If [B]42 ... Nd1+ 43 Kf3[/B]
If [B]42 ... Nd5+ 43 Rxc5[/B]
If [B]42 ... Nxf1+ 43 Kxf1[/B] (not 43 Rxc5 Nxh2)
If [B]42 ... Nf5+ 43 Rxc5[/B]
If [B]42 ... Ng2+ 43 Rxc5[/B]
If [B]42 ... Ng4+ 43 Ke2[/B] If [B]43 ... Nxh2 44 Rxc5[/B]
If [B]41 ... Nxf1 42 Kxf1[/B]
If [B]42 ... Bb4[/B]
Now Black has made it necessary for our king to travel to assist our rook if we want to capture the apawn. But if we were to do just exactly that, Black's king might travel down to take our g&h pawns and then march his g&h passers down to victory.
(I'm not going to try counting moves _now_ to see whether we could win a king/pawnrace, but we can do that later if this position does arise.)
By themselves the Black apawn and B/b4 pose no offensive threat. Our apawn can continue to block theirs by itself (as long as we prevent Black's king from reaching it), while we switch our rook to the kingside.
If [b]33 Nb5[/b]  THIS PART NOT YET FINISHED
Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 20140619 at 13:29
