Thread: White 15
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Old 2013-11-20, 16:23   #10
LaurV
Romulan Interpreter
 
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Jun 2011
Thailand

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[QUOTE=WMHalsdorf;359751]As best as I can figure things out on the queenside is that who ever attempts to open up a column loses which would make Re1 one of the better moves with placement of the R on a1 to be determined by what Black does.[/QUOTE]
Indeed. With 15.Re1 followed by 16.Nf2, our king position is impenetrable. Black has to waste at least 5-6 moves to try anything there, and it is very risky for him. We still get rook and pawns to play. So, his only chance is to push hard on the queen side. I could not find anything 'shocking' they could do there. This is a very tough position, maybe better than the one derived from 15.a4, discussed before, but it is also more complex. Where they can't get in, we can't get out...

Therefore I would go for something that simplifies the position, and in the same time is also more aggressive.

I think 15.e5 is the move by which we win the game! If you are still undecided what to move, have a look to it, and maybe we can decide together. I didn't find any downside of e5. They can beat the pawn, defend d6, push d5, move something else.

From the end to the beginning, to move something else is bad. They have no immediate threat, and assuming they don't move c4, we beat exd6, beat Bxc5 the next move and our pawn is as good as a queen. They may move Nd5, which is actually not a bad move, and I will come to it later, see below the move Nf5. Anything else results in immediate loss of wood for them.

They can push d5. Bad. Bxc5 and they have totally no move. Nf5, g4, need to go back; a4, b4, queen side is dead for them.

They can defend the pawn in d6, by either Rd8 (exd6, Rxd6, Nf2, they have no move again, and they must defend c6, which we may take next), or Nc8 (we still beat the pawn, and beat c6 after), or Kd7 (this will be stupid, we still beat and black king is in the center, undefended), or Nf5, which in fact is not a bad move (see above, Nd5), but we still beat the pawn. If he moved Nf5, he can't beat Nxd6, because Bxc5.

That is why I put Nf5 together with Nd5, because in both cases, if we beat the pawn, his best move would be to beat the bishop first, Nxe3. This continues with (I think is 17.)Nxe3, white, to be clear, and again they have no move, we can do Re1 (prepare for Nd5, he can't capture because the link), or Ng5, Ng4, we control the board, and play a horse and a pawn against a bishop and no pawn for the final stage of the game. This would be a clear win for us.

In all cases, we end with wood advantage (at least a pawn) or a much better position.

So, the only left alternative: they beat e5. Of course, they won't beat with a figure, (B/Nxe5), because fxe5 and we have a heavy piece in advantage. They must beat dxe5, clearly. From here, is simplifying, they have to play in center, if not, we win. So, no risk for us! Same safe as 15.a4 or 15.Re1, or 15.Rf2, etc, but more aggressive.

Are you still with me? :razz:

If so, then there is no alternative to this play: (i.e. black can't play otherwise, without losing)

(moment, let me regain my breath, and save the post, because I wrote a lot, and god forbid a power break now... hehe)

so, edit:

15.e5 dxe5 16. fxe5 Nxe5 17 Nxe5 Bxe5 18.Bxc5 (black moves something) 19. d4 (or b4, depending on their move), and after we push a4 later, to trick b5 out of the way, one of the two pawns (either c or d) is as good as a queen, or it will die taking a black figure with him. If they walk out of this line, we get enough advantage to win. If they walk the line, we can't lose.

Therefore my vote (provisional, but I don't think it can change anymore):

15. e5 - 5 points
15. a4 or Re1 - 2 points
15. other mentioned moves (Rxx etc) - 1 point

Nighty night!

Last fiddled with by LaurV on 2013-11-20 at 16:50
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