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Old 2019-04-03, 17:39   #12
greenskull
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Apr 2019
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One more interesting topic.

This is the plot that shows us the number of days (y axis) since 09 February 1997 (starting poin x=0, y=0) when all tests below chosen exponent (x axis) have been verified.
https://ibb.co/2nbJs29

I took the data from here:
https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones
I calculated the starting point 09 February 1997 (x=0, y=0) in such a way that the curve data approximation gave the smallest error.

This mathematical function allows us to extrapolate the day (since 09 February 1997) for any exponent (x axis) when all tests below it will be verified.
At the last 10 values, the error is quite small and does not exceed on average ±45 days. Although of course the value can walk in the larger tube of error.
I wrote about it here:
https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...postcount=3072

We could estimate that all tests below M57885161 will be completed on 12 September 2021 ±45 days.
https://ibb.co/b11f3tt

Assuming the validity of my hypothesis, it can be assumed that at least 3 new Mersenne Prime numbers will be open by this date.
But there are no guarantees and of course not limited to this interval :)
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