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Search: Posts Made By: greenskull
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-11-01, 18:12
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
It is nice bold prediction! GIMPS is a sect...

It is nice bold prediction!
GIMPS is a sect with no exit. Those who come here stay here forever.
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-28, 20:59
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
My prediction for M60000000 -- May 12, 2022 ...

My prediction for M60000000 -- May 12, 2022
https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?p=589619#post589619

26029
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-17, 21:51
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
I don't want to participate in Kriesel's game. ...

I don't want to participate in Kriesel's game.
Due to boring uninteresting rules and sloppy data handling.

But I will stay here and will, from time to time, refine my predictions. If necessary,...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-17, 09:54
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
And further. In your rules for evaluating...

And further.
In your rules for evaluating predictions, we cannot adjust our earlier predictions and make new bets.



Taking into account the fact that the deadlines for their execution are...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-17, 08:51
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
I know very well what I am talking about :) ...

I know very well what I am talking about :)

Your formula for estimating the quality of a participant's forecast uses the date that the forecast was made right?
And the rating of participant's...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-16, 21:35
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
Also, you have specified your forecast for...

Also, you have specified your forecast for Mp#49*, M(74 207 281) with the date 2021-08-26 and link:
https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=502995&postcount=11

But I did not find such a...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-16, 21:11
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
My prediction for Mp#49*, M(74 207 281) was March...

My prediction for Mp#49*, M(74 207 281) was March 08, 2025.
https://mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?p=589619#post589619

You marked my prediction in your PDF file as 2028-03-08. It is incorrect....
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-07, 16:31
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
Your first try was the same as firejuggler's one...

Your first try was the same as firejuggler's one -- 2029. It is too far.
The 2nd one is already more thoughtful. Nice.

Extrapolation and forecasting is not only a science but also a kind of art :)
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-07, 13:52
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
Surprisingly similar to my initial forecast. ...

Surprisingly similar to my initial forecast.


Linear?
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-07, 11:57
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
I guess that no later than in 1250 days, we will...

I guess that no later than in 1250 days, we will celebrate the passing of the next milestone here.
I mean M#49 or M(74207281).
https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?p=589619#post589619
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-06, 22:00
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
Respect! :thumbs-up:

Respect! :thumbs-up:
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-06, 16:59
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
I do not exclude that it can go according to a...

I do not exclude that it can go according to a very optimistic scenario and then the desired date will come earlier - in July 2024.
But I don't have enough data yet to confirm this scenario....
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-06, 16:13
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
No problem. But sometimes everyone can shoot the...

No problem. But sometimes everyone can shoot the sky and hit a bird ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-06, 15:49
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
I have no complaints. And there is no limit to...

I have no complaints. And there is no limit to perfection :)

Taking into account your understanding, you should hit the bull's-eye right off the bat.
Or do you also pass like Dr Sardonicus? Oops!...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-06, 14:03
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
The sign of mastery is the ability to repeat it....

The sign of mastery is the ability to repeat it. Otherwise, it's just a coincidence.
This is just an interesting game, there is nothing wrong with a mistake. We learn from mistakes.

For example,...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-06, 13:04
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
Maybe you will try to hit the bull's-eye again? :)

Maybe you will try to hit the bull's-eye again? :)
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-06, 11:50
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
My Magic Crystal Ball tells me that all exponents...

My Magic Crystal Ball tells me that all exponents below 74 207 281 will be tested and verified by
March 08, 2025 ± 64 days (85%).

25869

Accordingly:
M60000000 - May 12, 2022
M65000000 - May...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-06, 10:57
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By greenskull
Perfectly! I just love this forum :) Soon...

Perfectly!
I just love this forum :)

Soon I will give my forecast for the timings.
This will be M60000000, M65000000, M70000000 and of course M74207281 with a confidence interval of 85%.
Showing results 1 to 18 of 18

 
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