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Search: Posts Made By: Dr Sardonicus
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2022-03-24, 18:44
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By Dr Sardonicus
In a 2021-10-07 post to this thread...

In a 2021-10-07 post to this thread (https://mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=589724&postcount=24) I noted 269225 exponents < 74207281 to be cleared, and a (then) daily clearance rate of 213.149.
...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-11-23, 13:56
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By Dr Sardonicus
Oops. I really outdid myself that time! I meant...

Oops. I really outdid myself that time! I meant 2025.

:missingteeth: :missingteeth: :missingteeth: :missingteeth:
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-11-23, 01:58
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By Dr Sardonicus
Check at Mersenne.org: That's 4505 exponents...

Check at Mersenne.org:

That's 4505 exponents in 21 days. At that rate, it would take about 1207 days to clear the remaining 258872 exponents, or around mid-March 2505 2025.

Of course, that...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-07, 14:27
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By Dr Sardonicus
Linear?[/QUOTE]Yes. Number of exponents below...

Linear?[/QUOTE]Yes. Number of exponents below 74207281 remaining to be cleared, divided by daily clearance rate of exponents in that range, is my estimate of the number of days remaining until the...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-07, 13:07
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By Dr Sardonicus
Thank you. A total of 269225 exponents up to...

Thank you. A total of 269225 exponents up to 74207281 yet to be cleared, and a daily clearance rate of 213.149, gives a simple-minded extrapolation estimate of 1263 days. That's around 3 years five...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-07, 02:39
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By Dr Sardonicus
I see a major discrepancy - on the order of a...

I see a major discrepancy - on the order of a factor of 2 - between the rate of clearance figures "20k exponents cleared/6 months" (as per firejuggler) and "213 exponents cleared per day" (as per...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-06, 16:07
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By Dr Sardonicus
I didn't "pass." I endorsed firejuggler's method...

I didn't "pass." I endorsed firejuggler's method and his estimate. It's essentially the same as the method I used for my estimate for 57885161, which proved to be accurate. With 74207281 he simply...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-06, 15:44
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By Dr Sardonicus
I don't know what "fundamental factors" is...

I don't know what "fundamental factors" is supposed to mean.

The question here is when a specific computational task will be completed. It seems to me that the "fundamental factor" in answering...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-06, 13:42
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By Dr Sardonicus
firejuggler beat me to it. The method I would...

firejuggler beat me to it. The method I would use is essentially the same as he used. As I said, it might be possible to tweak it a bit, but IMO it isn't worth the effort.

It would be silly at...
Forum: Marin's Mersenne-aries 2021-10-06, 12:41
Replies: 68
Views: 7,144
Posted By Dr Sardonicus
I'd say it's a perfectly reasonable initial...

I'd say it's a perfectly reasonable initial estimate. Nothing fancy, just extrapolating on the current rate of progress, with an adjustment for larger exponents taking longer to test. I suppose the...
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