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Search: Posts Made By: 0scar
Forum: Puzzles 2020-04-14, 17:30
Replies: 44
Views: 6,382
Posted By 0scar
I think that someone didn't stop on day 10 or on...

I think that someone didn't stop on day 10 or on day 19, but he always checked every t until p >=.7 was reached. And he eventually found some p very, very close.
My guess: somewhere before day 81.
Forum: Puzzles 2020-04-13, 09:07
Replies: 44
Views: 6,382
Posted By 0scar
On day 2, city B, only the 9000 people still...

On day 2, city B, only the 9000 people still healthy can be infected (from A only):
1000+9000*0.1= 1900.
Otherwise, some people infected on previous days are counted over and over again, quickly...
Forum: Puzzles 2020-04-12, 22:10
Replies: 44
Views: 6,382
Posted By 0scar
I didn't look at your Excel file before. ...

I didn't look at your Excel file before.
According to your computations, after ten days the cities are contaminated ABOVE 100%.
You noticed it, and you hid it with well placed if statements.
But...
Forum: Puzzles 2020-04-12, 17:09
Replies: 44
Views: 6,382
Posted By 0scar
A simple counterexample. There is a small (but...

A simple counterexample.
There is a small (but strictly positive) chance that the infection never leaves town A in ten days.
Or in ten months.
Or in ten thousand years.
Forum: Puzzles 2020-04-10, 08:06
Replies: 44
Views: 6,382
Posted By 0scar
If so, I apologise. Of course, the text of...

If so, I apologise.

Of course, the text of April 2020 problem is ambiguous.
My first goal was to confirm that uau's interpretation of the problem is coherent with the given example.
I restated...
Forum: Puzzles 2020-04-08, 03:55
Replies: 44
Views: 6,382
Posted By 0scar
Using the same strategy outlined by uau, I...

Using the same strategy outlined by uau, I computed the sequence p(1) - p(10) for the given example:

p(1) = 0 (E has distance 2 from A)
p(2) ~= 0.00101080000
p(3) ~= 0.00651474676
p(4) ~=...
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