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-   -   COVID vaccination wavefront (https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=26332)

firejuggler 2020-12-28 17:28

polititians?

storm5510 2020-12-28 18:02

[QUOTE=firejuggler;567549]polititians?[/QUOTE]

The above is a "typo" it appears. Politicians, I believe, was the intended word. :smile:

CRGreathouse 2020-12-28 20:33

[QUOTE=storm5510;567544]I read yesterday that hospitals and nursing homes will be first in line here in the U.S. This is patients and staff. I would guess that all emergency service workers would be next. Police, fire, and ambulance crews, anyone with a high contact rate with other people.[/QUOTE]

First: Health care personnel with potential exposure to COVID patients and LTCF residents (nursing home patients)
Second: Frontline essential workers (First responders [firefighters, police], education [teachers, support staff, daycare], Food and agriculture, Manufacturing, Corrections workers, U.S. Postal Service workers, Public transit workers, Grocery store workers), people 75 and older
Third: People ages 65-74, people ages 16-64 with high-risk conditions, and other essential workers
Fourth: Everyone else

The third wave is the largest -- lots of people have at least one high-risk condition.

S485122 2020-12-28 21:05

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;567560]...
Second: ...
Corrections workers,
...[/QUOTE]To be logical you should include all the incarcerated people, more generally people who can't keep the security distancing measures.

Jacob

CRGreathouse 2020-12-29 02:27

[QUOTE=S485122;567561]To be logical you should include all the incarcerated people, more generally people who can't keep the security distancing measures.[/QUOTE]

Another group that would warrant more protection under most epidemiological models is the homeless. Probably the homeless put the community at even higher risk (as they mingle with the community more, especially once you remove corrections officers) and so are even more deserving of vaccine priority.

a1call 2020-12-29 03:08

IMHO it is inexcusable that there should be any prioritizing at all. It only indicates that there is not enough resources allocated to vaccine production/distribution. By vaccinating and exponentially increasing vaccination production personnel you could vaccinate the whole planet virtually (as opposed to literally) overnight. In times of war all factories and available personnel are converted/retooled and utilized to make bombs and tanks. If they would only use the same logic against Covid-19.
I heard in the news yesterday that Israel has already vaccinated 1% of its population and will finish vaccinating the whole country by April.

retina 2020-12-29 04:07

[QUOTE=a1call;567594]IMHO it is inexcusable that there should be any prioritizing at all.[/QUOTE]Welcome to a1call's fantasy world where there is only ever one thing to consider and all other things are void.

Uncwilly 2020-12-29 04:27

[QUOTE=a1call;567594]IMHO it is inexcusable that there should be any prioritizing at all. It only indicates that there is not enough resources allocated to vaccine production/distribution. By vaccinating and exponentially increasing vaccination production personnel you could vaccinate the whole planet virtually (as opposed to literally) overnight. In times of war all factories and available personnel are converted/retooled and utilized to make bombs and tanks. If they would only use the same logic against Covid-19.
I heard in the news yesterday that Israel has already vaccinated 1% of its population and will finish vaccinating the whole country by April.[/QUOTE]
To say that all factories should be turned into vaccine production is a vast misunderstanding of the process of making the vaccine. It has to be kept 'super cold' or just very cold. What types of factories have that capability? The process of making the vaccine is not like machining parts. Making pistons for tanks is very much like making pistons for cars. Making vaccines is not like making say, fire retardant chemicals or even brewing beer or even some other vital medication. The companies can't stop making other needed medication to make the vaccine instead (sorry grandpa, no more heart medication until we vaccinate everyone).

The companies that have been making the vaccine have been doing things in parallel. In addition to the trials, they have been producing vaccine presuming that the there would be approval. The time from start on the vaccine to development for first human trials to stage 3 trials to EUA has been so quick. Go back and look at the timeline for any prior vaccine or just about any medication. The development and production are unparalleled in speed.

Israel is getting a huge portion of their vaccines from Pfizer (while working on their own version.) So, that is pulling from the same pool as the USA, Canada, and many other countries. Who (country) gets doses when also depends on which country got their order in for how many and when. Some countries have over subscribed for vaccines (they have contracted for more doses than needed to fully inoculate their entire population. Some by 25% extra, some over 100% extra. So, those doses won't be available to other countries until they release them.

As far as the unhoused or poorly housed population getting priority. Over the summer I worked with that population on multiple occasions.. I have some prior experience dealing with them. They are at high risk. I would rather have them vaccinated ahead of me, if it was my choice. They are a very 'at risk' population. Many are homeless due to medical bills or mental health issues. Those that have medical issues often are seeing good management of their issues. Poorly housed also includes people that are in housing that is too small for the size of the housing unit. Having 4 people out working at low paying jobs increases the risk to the people in that housing unit. And unlike me, their sick time benefits are minimal. That puts them at risk.

If it takes 3 years to get 95% of the world (or 95% of those that are willing/able to take the vaccine) vaccinated, that will be a major triumph. If it occurs in 24 months (counting this month), that will be a near miraculous achievement.

Dr Sardonicus 2020-12-29 13:27

[QUOTE=a1call;567594]IMHO it is inexcusable that there should be any prioritizing at all.
<snip>
By vaccinating and exponentially increasing vaccination production personnel you could vaccinate the whole planet virtually (as opposed to literally) overnight.[/QUOTE]
So, on the one hand, it is "inexcusable" to prioritize who gets the vaccine based on limited availability, while on the other hand, you advocate an impossible level of converting production capacity from other things to producing the vaccine, which is just a different kind of prioritizing. So you are being logically inconsistent regarding the desirability of prioritization.

The impracticability and adverse consequences of trying to increase vaccine production as you indicate have already been described.

Another aspect of vaccine availability has also come up:[QUOTE=Uncwilly;567602]<snip>
Israel is getting a huge portion of their vaccines from Pfizer (while working on their own version.) So, that is pulling from the same pool as the USA, Canada, and many other countries. Who (country) gets doses when also depends on which country got their order in for how many and when.[/QUOTE]To emphasize this excellent point, I offer the following: A December 7 AP story, [url=https://apnews.com/article/feds-pfizer-vaccine-doses-covid-19-88fd7c59fd0af8669ed3cdafdf08881e]Feds passed up chance to lock in more Pfizer vaccine doses[/url][quote]WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration opted last summer not to lock in a chance to buy millions of additional doses of one of the leading coronavirus vaccine contenders, a decision that could delay the delivery of a second batch of doses until manufacturer Pfizer fulfills other international contracts.
<snip>
Under its contract with Pfizer, the Trump administration committed to buy an initial 100 million doses, with an option to purchase as many as five times more.

This summer, the White House opted not to lock in an additional 100 million doses for delivery in the second quarter of 2021, according to people who spoke about the matter on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss it publicly.
<snip>
Days ahead of the vaccine's expected approval, the administration is reversing course, but it is not clear that Pfizer, which has since made commitments to other countries, will be able to meet the latest request on the same timeline.[/quote]In a December 23 story, [url=https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-f35259fee53146887591c32fd8ca6fdb]Pfizer to supply US with additional 100M doses of vaccine[/url],[quote]Under the Pfizer deal announced Wednesday, the company will deliver at least 70 million of the additional vaccine doses by June 30, with the remaining 30 million to be delivered no later than July 31.[/quote]So it looks to me like the Admin's passing on the additional 100 million doses this past summer has cost the US in vaccine availability for most of the second quarter.

retina 2020-12-29 13:46

Re: prioritising
 
I think it is just a consequence of only following the MSM headlines.

When people only see the "most important" news[sup]*[/sup], then the [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic]availability heuristic[/url] kicks in and suddenly the only thing that matters now is what the MSM are talking about.

To all those that only follow the MSM "news": Congratulations on being successfully brainwashed into thinking exactly how the MSM would like you to think. We'll be back after these important messages with more updates, so stay tuned ...

[size=1][sup]*[/sup] Where "most important" is as defined by the MSM. Which translates to: The "news" that generates the most profit for them.[/size]

storm5510 2020-12-29 16:18

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;567560]First: Health care personnel with potential exposure to COVID patients and LTCF residents (nursing home patients)
Second: Frontline essential workers (First responders [firefighters, police], education [teachers, support staff, daycare], Food and agriculture, Manufacturing, Corrections workers, U.S. Postal Service workers, Public transit workers, Grocery store workers), people 75 and older
Third: People ages 65-74, people ages 16-64 with high-risk conditions, and other essential workers
Fourth: Everyone else

The third wave is the largest -- lots of people have at least one high-risk condition.[/QUOTE]

I fear the timeline for this will be long. Then, there is the new variant. I wonder if the current vaccine is already obsolete? My next doctor's appointment is in early March. I will have to ask...


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