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-   -   Are you afraid of the Covid Vaccine? (be honest) (https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=26312)

ONeil 2020-12-15 04:44

Are you afraid of the Covid Vaccine? (be honest)
 
Will you be taking the Covid Vaccine? Do you feel its safe? Do you feel the vaccine really will improve your life and you will live a longer healthier life if you take it?

What are your thoughts on the Anti-vaxxers and all the conspiracies regarding Bill Gates and vaccines?


I have not made my mind up about taking the vaccine, I'm still mystified about Trump and Juliani getting over Covid in 3 days and saying they took a elite cocktail to solve the corona virus.

ONeil 2020-12-15 05:10

This is a government run website you guys just proved it by pushing this post from soap box to my blogorrhea. So Uncwilly and Greathouse I guess the vaccine is very important to Big Government the rabble take the jab eh

Watch and learn:
[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6zX2H8UFlI[/url]

[YOUTUBE]t6zX2H8UFlI[/YOUTUBE]

Uncwilly 2020-12-15 05:30

[URL="https://primes.utm.edu/notes/crackpot.html"]#26[/URL]

mathwiz 2020-12-15 06:04

[QUOTE=ONeil;566214]This is a government run website you guys just proved it by pushing this post from soap box to my blogorrhea. So Uncwilly and Greathouse I guess the vaccine is very important to Big Government the rabble take the jab eh[/QUOTE]

Perhaps you should protest by never posting on this site again?

LaurV 2020-12-15 06:10

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;566215][URL="https://primes.utm.edu/notes/crackpot.html"]#26[/URL][/QUOTE]
I would say it's more like #27, due to double score, and the "you are out to get me" attitude.

ONeil 2020-12-15 06:18

Ok guys post your cert jab covid vaccine papers and we shall see if you are all still around post [B][I][U]March 31, 2021[/U][/I][/B].

Go drink the cool aid I will still be here ok.:tu:

CRGreathouse 2020-12-15 06:23

[QUOTE=ONeil;566212]Will you be taking the Covid Vaccine? Do you feel its safe? Do you feel the vaccine really will improve your life and you will live a longer healthier life if you take it?[/QUOTE]

Let's be careful here. There are many different products out there, and it would be silly to say that they're either all safe or all unsafe, and similarly that they're either all efficacious or all inefficacious.

The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is the one that has a US EUA, so I'll focus my attention there. (The Moderna vaccine and the Oxford vaccine are also very interesting and I'd be happy to discuss them. I'm less knowledgeable about the others.) It has strong evidence of efficacy in reducing cases of COVID in ages 16+. What does this mean, and what does this not mean?

There's a spectrum, in a sense, of being affected by SARS-CoV-2:

uninfected < asymptomatic < minimal symptoms < hospital inpatient < hospital ICU < ICU + vent < dead

What has really been tested in this study is, in essence, this cutpoint:
[COLOR="DarkGreen"]uninfected < asymptomatic < minimal symptoms[/COLOR] vs. [COLOR="Red"]hospital inpatient < hospital ICU < ICU + vent < dead[/COLOR]
So this particular vaccine does a good job of stopping the greens from becoming red. But the design doesn't give us much insight on what happens within the reds, and it doesn't give us any information on what happens within the greens at all.

The first part doesn't really bother me, because essentially every vaccine ever studied has been more effective at things like
[COLOR="Sienna"]uninfected < asymptomatic < minimal symptoms < hospital inpatient < hospital ICU < ICU + vent[/COLOR] vs. [COLOR="Indigo"]dead[/COLOR]
compared to the first. They'll study it as best they're able, of course, but their ability to find out about it will depend on how long they can study as well as how bad the pandemic is. (The longer the study and the worse the pandemic, the more they can learn.)

But the second part is a big deal, because from a public health perspective you want to know about
[COLOR="Lime"]uninfected[/COLOR] vs. [COLOR="Pink"]asymptomatic < minimal symptoms < hospital inpatient < hospital ICU < ICU + vent < dead[/COLOR]
because you hope that the vaccine will slow transmission, and we don't have any data on that. It would be much less valuable if the vaccine merely protected the individual recipients but let them pass on the virus -- in fact, it could even make things worse. So until more is known on this important point, I'm not going to say I'm entirely in favor of this vaccine. But choosing not to decide is itself a choice, [url=https://genius.com/1989063]as Rush sings[/url], and in the absence of hard data one must act on the basis of available information: vaccinate, or hold off?

On the safety side it's easy to do a Baysean calculation on your own using the numbers from the study and projections for your region for infection, working in your age and other risk factors. One point here worth mentioning (unfortunately more study is needed, but the US government is proceeding with a great deal of caution here): there have been two reported cases of anaphylaxis which may and may not have been an allergic reaction to a component of the vaccine. Individuals with a history of anaphylaxis or other severe allergic reaction (to any vaccine component, stopper, etc.) may have a contraindication for the vaccine, and even if not, should only vaccinate if the risk profile is appropriate for them. Until more is known, such individuals should probably continue to isolate in preference to vaccinating. I do not have any details here but I understand that gelatin allergies have been particularly problematic, yet easily overlooked, allergies in the past.

But better than any of this: talk to your doctor, who knows your personal medical history.

[QUOTE=ONeil;566212]What are your thoughts on the Anti-vaxxers and all the conspiracies regarding Bill Gates and vaccines?[/QUOTE]

They're idiots.

CRGreathouse 2020-12-15 06:28

[QUOTE=ONeil;566218]we shall see if you are all still around post [B][I][U]March 31, 2021[/U][/I][/B].[/QUOTE]

Why don't you make that more concrete so when the date rolls around we can know unambiguously if you were right or wrong. What, precisely, are you predicting?

retina 2020-12-15 06:30

Which do you fear the most, the vaccine, or the virus?

If you strongly fear them both then enjoy your life locked away in seclusion for the rest of your life.

ONeil 2020-12-15 06:35

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;566219]Let's be careful here. There are many different products out there, and it would be silly to say that they're either all safe or all unsafe, and similarly that they're either all efficacious or all inefficacious.

The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is the one that has a US EUA, so I'll focus my attention there. (The Moderna vaccine and the Oxford vaccine are also very interesting and I'd be happy to discuss them. I'm less knowledgeable about the others.) It has strong evidence of efficacy in reducing cases of COVID in ages 16+. What does this mean, and what does this not mean?

There's a spectrum, in a sense, of being affected by SARS-CoV-2:

uninfected < asymptomatic < minimal symptoms < hospital inpatient < hospital ICU < ICU + vent < dead

What has really been tested in this study is, in essence, this cutpoint:
[COLOR="DarkGreen"]uninfected < asymptomatic < minimal symptoms[/COLOR] vs. [COLOR="Red"]hospital inpatient < hospital ICU < ICU + vent < dead[/COLOR]
So this particular vaccine does a good job of stopping the greens from becoming red. But the design doesn't give us much insight on what happens within the reds, and it doesn't give us any information on what happens within the greens at all.

The first part doesn't really bother me, because essentially every vaccine ever studied has been more effective at things like
[COLOR="Sienna"]uninfected < asymptomatic < minimal symptoms < hospital inpatient < hospital ICU < ICU + vent[/COLOR] vs. [COLOR="Indigo"]dead[/COLOR]
compared to the first. They'll study it as best they're able, of course, but their ability to find out about it will depend on how long they can study as well as how bad the pandemic is. (The longer the study and the worse the pandemic, the more they can learn.)

But the second part is a big deal, because from a public health perspective you want to know about
[COLOR="Lime"]uninfected[/COLOR] vs. [COLOR="Pink"]asymptomatic < minimal symptoms < hospital inpatient < hospital ICU < ICU + vent < dead[/COLOR]
because you hope that the vaccine will slow transmission, and we don't have any data on that. It would be much less valuable if the vaccine merely protected the individual recipients but let them pass on the virus -- in fact, it could even make things worse. So until more is known on this important point, I'm not going to say I'm entirely in favor of this vaccine. But choosing not to decide is itself a choice, [url=https://genius.com/1989063]as Rush sings[/url], and in the absence of hard data one must act on the basis of available information: vaccinate, or hold off?

On the safety side it's easy to do a Baysean calculation on your own using the numbers from the study and projections for your region for infection, working in your age and other risk factors. One point here worth mentioning (unfortunately more study is needed, but the US government is proceeding with a great deal of caution here): there have been two reported cases of anaphylaxis which may and may not have been an allergic reaction to a component of the vaccine. Individuals with a history of anaphylaxis or other severe allergic reaction (to any vaccine component, stopper, etc.) may have a contraindication for the vaccine, and even if not, should only vaccinate if the risk profile is appropriate for them. Until more is known, such individuals should probably continue to isolate in preference to vaccinating. I do not have any details here but I understand that gelatin allergies have been particularly problematic, yet easily overlooked, allergies in the past.

But better than any of this: talk to your doctor, who knows your personal medical history.



They're idiots.[/QUOTE]

@GreatHouse,

That was a very intense and convoluted answer and I guessing your waiting to be vaccinated to see better results from the Pfizer vaccine am I wrong or right? So you say all anti-vaxxers are idiots eh. Well some people in the past if they could could cry out from their graves would say you are dead wrong no pun intended. Yet many have led productive lives saved from the ill effects of polio.

What get me is the rush with a new mRNA vaccine the first of its kind and I almost feel persecuted for asking questions of its safety?

ONeil 2020-12-15 06:41

[QUOTE=retina;566223]Which do you fear the most, the vaccine, or the virus?

If you strongly fear them both then enjoy your life locked away in seclusion for the rest of your life.[/QUOTE]


Hmmm a very bad flu that can kill I have a bad flu that nearly killed me when I was a young kid. I got over it. This mRNA vaccine I need to wait till 2022 and see if 2021 will have more deaths than 2020. And if I survive than I will not take it ok!

:picard:

ONeil 2020-12-15 06:44

[QUOTE=retina;566223]Which do you fear the most, the vaccine, or the virus?

If you strongly fear them both then enjoy your life locked away in seclusion for the rest of your life.[/QUOTE]

retina you are an idiot you should be more careful with your words. If you have never been isolated or in seclution count yourself lucky. I hope that never happens to you. But you should not throw around suffering statements like that unless your karma is prepared to handle it yourself. :censored:

ONeil 2020-12-15 06:53

mRNA
[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfYf_rPWUdY[/url]

[YOUTUBE]TfYf_rPWUdY[/YOUTUBE]

ONeil 2020-12-15 07:40

OMG!
[QUOTE]Bill and Melinda Gates give another $70 million to COVID-19 vaccine development
[url]https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/525648-bill-and-melinda-gates-give-another-70-million-to-covid-19-vaccine[/url][/QUOTE]
I'M NOT TAKING THE VACCINE GATES A MAJOR DONOR FOR PFIZER SAID THIS!
check at 2:33

[YOUTUBE]WUJMR3BUm2s[/YOUTUBE]

Batalov 2020-12-15 07:54

[QUOTE=ONeil;566226]Hmmm a very bad flu that can kill I have a bad flu [/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=ONeil;566227]retina you are an idiot you should be more careful with your words[/QUOTE]
Talking out of both sides of the mouth this one is. (answering to a single message in two opposite ways.)

Personally for me, I'll take any vaccine that has been scientifically tested. Which is ... either one of the three! (but not the Sputnik. Remind me, why did I leave USSR? Ah, that's why. Memory is the 2nd thing that goes with age.)

I am getting Pfizer's, probably as early as this week. [SPOILER]Owning a cow and not drinking the milk seems silly. Why the hell did I chose a work at the hospital? Incidentally, our hospital is the four-county-designated storage space for San Diego++ vicinity. We've got enough -80 freezers and plenty of nurses.[/SPOILER]

CRGreathouse 2020-12-15 08:05

[QUOTE=ONeil;566225]That was a very intense and convoluted answer[/QUOTE]

Please let me know what parts you found convoluted and I'll see if I can simplify them further.

[QUOTE=ONeil;566225]So you say all anti-vaxxers are idiots eh.[/QUOTE]

Pretty much, yes. There are plenty of wise people who are cautious about vaccines, but not a single one who calls him/herself an anti-vaxxer.

But I'd be happy to have my mind changed! Do you know of an intelligent anti-vaxxer whose arguments are cogent and based in science and not cherry-picking or other fallacies?

[QUOTE=ONeil;566225]Well some people in the past if they could could cry out from their graves would say you are dead wrong no pun intended. Yet many have led productive lives saved from the ill effects of polio.[/QUOTE]

How many deaths are you talking about? The Cutter incident caused 10 deaths (5 direct, 5 indirect). The 1976 flu vaccine may have caused around 20 deaths from GBS... we don't have a single confirmed case. Over 20 years vaccines saved [url=https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/p0424-immunization-program.html]732,000 lives[/url] (counting only children in the US; worldwide, tens of millions).

This is not even getting into the lives that have been merely improved by vaccines -- people who have not been blinded or deafened or paralyzed by infection. (If you're young enough to think it strange that an infection would do that, thank vaccines, not your lucky stars.)

[QUOTE=ONeil;566225]What get me is the rush with a new mRNA vaccine the first of its kind and I almost feel persecuted for asking questions of its safety?[/QUOTE]

What's the rush? [url=https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/]Seriously?[/url] We're 3 days away from having [b]three times the numbers of Americans dead as from Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan[/b] combined. We're going to hit World War II before Biden takes office.

But maybe I'm missing something here. We're talking about an RNA virus, so if you're squeamish about mRNA then presumably an attenuated vaccine, a recombinant vaccine, or a DNA vaccine would be even more problematic for you. Are you just hoping for a subunit vaccine, or what? Because those generally take lots of doses to become effective, and it's usually tricky to get a good dosing schedule, and often you need to find a good adjuvant to pair with it, and all of these mean serious delays in getting the vaccine out (or even longer delays if you skip the adjuvant).* Going whole-hog means you can skip the adjuvant entirely (usually... and it looks like that's what they're doing here) which is great -- you're getting a much more natural immune response that way, no need to muck around. (Not that I'm opposed to mucking, but not when there's a crisis on!)

But by all means, ask questions about safety. All vaccines intended for the general public need close scrutiny. But so far I haven't really heard anything from you, just vague uneasiness. If you have real concerns, please voice them! Why are you concerned with mRNA vaccines? Why do you (seem to) think it would be safer to let the pandemic rage vs. vaccinate with one of the leading (Pfizer/Moderna/Novavax/J&J/AstraZeneca) vaccines?

* Not that I hate subunit vaccines... they have their place... but lots of downsides here. One upside: very few vaccine reactions, unless you use adjuvants (esp. dermally -- better to go IM or its itchy).

ONeil 2020-12-15 08:10

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;566232]Please let me know what parts you found convoluted and I'll see if I can simplify them further.



Pretty much, yes. There are plenty of wise people who are cautious about vaccines, but not a single one who calls him/herself an anti-vaxxer.

But I'd be happy to have my mind changed! Do you know of an intelligent anti-vaxxer whose arguments are cogent and based in science and not cherry-picking or other fallacies?



How many deaths are you talking about? The Cutter incident caused 10 deaths (5 direct, 5 indirect). The 1976 flu vaccine may have caused around 20 deaths from GBS... we don't have a single confirmed case. Over 20 years vaccines saved [url=https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/p0424-immunization-program.html]732,000 lives[/url] (counting only children in the US; worldwide, tens of millions).

This is not even getting into the lives that have been merely improved by vaccines -- people who have not been blinded or deafened or paralyzed by infection. (If you're young enough to think it strange that an infection would do that, thank vaccines, not your lucky stars.)



What's the rush? [url=https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/]Seriously?[/url] We're 3 days away from having [b]three times the numbers of Americans dead as from Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan[/b] combined. We're going to hit World War II before Biden takes office.

But maybe I'm missing something here. We're talking about an RNA virus, so if you're squeamish about mRNA then presumably an attenuated vaccine, a recombinant vaccine, or a DNA vaccine would be even more problematic for you. Are you just hoping for a subunit vaccine, or what? Because those generally take lots of doses to become effective, and it's usually tricky to get a good dosing schedule, and often you need to find a good adjuvant to pair with it, and all of these mean serious delays in getting the vaccine out (or even longer delays if you skip the adjuvant).* Going whole-hog means you can skip the adjuvant entirely (usually... and it looks like that's what they're doing here) which is great -- you're getting a much more natural immune response that way, no need to muck around. (Not that I'm opposed to mucking, but not when there's a crisis on!)

But by all means, ask questions about safety. All vaccines intended for the general public need close scrutiny. But so far I haven't really heard anything from you, just vague uneasiness. If you have real concerns, please voice them! Why are you concerned with mRNA vaccines? Why do you (seem to) think it would be safer to let the pandemic rage vs. vaccinate with one of the leading (Pfizer/Moderna/Novavax/J&J/AstraZeneca) vaccines?

* Not that I hate subunit vaccines... they have their place... but lots of downsides here. One upside: very few vaccine reactions, unless you use adjuvants (esp. dermally -- better to go IM or its itchy).[/QUOTE]

Sorry GreatHouse you can have your New World Order Juice Now Kiss Bill
[QUOTE]Bill and Melinda Gates give another $70 million to COVID-19 vaccine development
[url]https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...vid-19-vaccine[/url][/QUOTE]
[YOUTUBE]qW0K59hzVdg[/YOUTUBE]

firejuggler 2020-12-15 08:20

Anti-vaxxer and conspiracy... that's not a good cocktail here.

ONeil 2020-12-15 08:31

[QUOTE=firejuggler;566235]Anti-vaxxer and conspiracy... that's not a good cocktail here.[/QUOTE]

[YOUTUBE]R7ZnR2rTLoY[/YOUTUBE]

M344587487 2020-12-15 10:40

[QUOTE=ONeil;566212]Are you afraid of the Covid Vaccine be honest?[/QUOTE]No. I wouldn't have been the first to take it but I will be the millionth if you understand my meaning.

[QUOTE=ONeil;566212]What are your thoughts on the Anti-vaxxers and all the conspiracies regarding Bill Gates and vaccines?[/QUOTE]If this particular mass delusion wasn't so damaging to society it would be hilarious.

[QUOTE=ONeil;566225]What get me is the rush with a new mRNA vaccine the first of its kind and I almost feel persecuted for asking questions of its safety?[/QUOTE]You haven't just started a discussion about the safety of a vaccine, you've also asked people's opinion about anti-vaxxers. As you identify as an anti-vaxxer all that achieves is feeding your persecution complex, misguided is most likely the kindest thing anyone not in an anti-vaxxer bubble is likely to say.

[QUOTE=firejuggler;566235]Anti-vaxxer and conspiracy... that's not a good cocktail here.[/QUOTE]
The two go hand in hand. I have a relative who dabbles in conspiracy theories recreationally, I like to think of it as a harmless outlet for an active imagination which it mostly is, but I still try to keep them grounded if they start swimming away from the shallow end. They have concerns about the vaccine as you might expect, boiling down to a distrust of the government or more accurately the way Covid has played out in the media and the speed at which a vaccine has been developed. They're not anti-vaxxers, but because they have concerns they cite "evidence" that confirms their concerns, it's not entirely unlike a hypochondriac thinking that everything they read is happening to them in some way. Thankfully they have the support network necessary to quickly dispel the nonsense, but those that don't get more and more cranky. The modern problem is that cranks can now easily organise online and exponentially exacerbate their crankiness.

xilman 2020-12-15 10:52

[QUOTE=M344587487;566246] I have a relative who dabbles in conspiracy theories recreationally,[/QUOTE]What I want to know is: if conspiracy theories are complete BS, why does the gummint spend so much time, money and effort trying to debunk them? What are they hiding from us?

firejuggler 2020-12-15 11:01

[QUOTE=xilman;566247]What I want to know is: if conspiracy theories are complete BS, why does the gummint spend so much time, money and effort trying to debunk them? What are they hiding from us?[/QUOTE]


Because, as educated people, they think they can teach disbeliever. And, as good educator, if one method doesn't work, they try again, differently.
That cost time , effort and money.

xilman 2020-12-15 11:36

[QUOTE=firejuggler;566249]Because, as educated people, they think they can teach disbeliever. And, as good educator, if one method doesn't work, they try again, differently.
That cost time , effort and money.[/QUOTE]Irony is wasted on some people.

firejuggler 2020-12-15 11:54

Sorry, it didn't feel that much rethorical.
More like a 2 a step punchline.

CRGreathouse 2020-12-15 18:09

ONeil, every time I try to have a serious discussion you shut it down. Do you have any serious reasons for your antivaxx sentiment?

ONeil 2020-12-15 18:25

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;566300]ONeil, every time I try to have a serious discussion you shut it down. Do you have any serious reasons for your antivaxx sentiment?[/QUOTE]

Yes Bill Gates is into Eugenics flat out and he is behind donating billions of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ to Pfizer for the jab. I will not take this experimental mRNA shot thank you very much. The proteins it will produce will weaken everyone's immune response.

Bill is already planning how to avoid all those who die from the shots by selling this:
March 31, 2021 people will be dyeing in a an unpresented manner far worse than now just wait and see. I have feeling some of those people will be ones who got the jab.

[QUOTE]Bill Gates: We need a team of 3,000 infectious disease experts to fight the next pandemic
[url]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/15/bill-gates-how-the-biden-administration-can-prep-for-future-pandemics.html[/url][/QUOTE]

This is horrific for what Bill Gates said about the true purpose of vaccines.
[YOUTUBE]qW0K59hzVdg[/YOUTUBE]

mathwiz 2020-12-15 19:32

[QUOTE=ONeil;566302]Yes Bill Gates is into Eugenics flat out and he is behind donating billions of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ to Pfizer for the jab. I will not take this experimental mRNA shot thank you very much.[/QUOTE]

OK. Feel free to risk getting covid-19.

Here on planet Earth, I'm perfectly happy to take a vaccine that has been studied and tested in clinical trials with thousands of people.

[QUOTE]March 31, 2021 people will be dyeing in a an unpresented manner far worse than now just wait and see.[/QUOTE]

They will be [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dye"]adding pigment to their clothes[/URL]? That sounds awful...

ONeil 2020-12-15 21:24

So 4 in 30,000 had this side affect. You numbers guys how many could it be if say since we have a supply of 250 million shots on hand and say we use it all, how many could get bells palsy? What figure would you average?

My figures are about 33,333 people would get Bells Palsy

[QUOTE]U.S. Food and Drug Administration staff recommends monitoring people who get Pfizer or Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine shots for possible cases of Bell’s palsy, saying it’s not necessarily a side effect but worth watching out for after a handful of trial participants got the condition, which causes half of your face to droop.
[url]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/15/fda-staff-recommends-watching-for-bells-palsy-in-moderna-and-pfizer-vaccine-recipients.html[/url][/QUOTE]

Uncwilly 2020-12-15 21:41

[QUOTE=ONeil;566312]So 4 in 30,000 had this side affect. You numbers guys how many could it be if say since we have a supply of 250 million shots on hand and say we use it all, how many could get bells palsy? What figure would you average?[/QUOTE]
That works out to be about 13, per 100,000 = 1 / 7692

[URL="https://emedicine.medscape.com/article/1146903-overview"]https://emedicine.medscape.com/article/1146903-overview [/URL]
[QUOTE]Most population studies generally show an annual incidence of 15–30 cases per 100,000 population[/QUOTE]Seems to be in line with the general population. 1 / 6667 to 1/ 13,333

[URL="https://www.ninds.nih.gov/disorders/patient-caregiver-education/fact-sheets/bells-palsy-fact-sheet"]https://www.ninds.nih.gov/disorders/patient-caregiver-education/fact-sheets/bells-palsy-fact-sheet [/URL]
[QUOTE]Who is at risk?
Bell’s palsy affects about 40,000 people in the United States every year. It can affect anyone of any gender and age, but its incidence seems to be highest in those in the 15- to 45-year-old age group. Risk factors for Bell’s palsy include pregnancy, preeclampsia, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and upper respiratory ailments.[/QUOTE]40,000/331,000,000 = 1 / 8275

So that many cases is the same as background. roughly.

Dr Sardonicus 2020-12-15 22:04

Hmm. It seems that good ol' Alex "Infowars" Jones has been pushing some of the conspiratorialist Kool-aid about Bill Gates and vaccines. Luckily, you don't need a vaccine anyway, because he has colloidal silver toothpaste to sell you that's guaranteed to kill that virus dead. Oh, wait, I think those nasty gummint types got on him about the claims for colloidal silver being fraudulent.

In addition to there being no evidence of colloidal silver being effective against COVID-19 (or having any health benefits whatever), too much of it in your system can lead to a permanent skin discoloration known as [url=https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/12/12/article-2522463-1A0CF58E00000578-768_634x599.jpg]Argyria[/url]. Oh, and did I mention that the condition is [i][b]permanent?[/b][/i]

tServo 2020-12-15 22:08

No, I'm not afraid of getting the vaccination.
I AM afraid of NOT getting it. ( soon enough )
I am also afraid that if enough people DON't get it, we won't reach the threshold that causes the disease to be completely snuffed out and we will have "flare ups" periodically.

A few years ago ( sorry, I don't have a link ), I remember reading about a study that examined each medicine breakthru to estimate how many lives that breakthru has saved.

Vaccines not only won, they were responsible for over half the number of lives saved !!

firejuggler 2020-12-15 22:10

Obligatory xkcd
[url]https://xkcd.com/1520/[/url]

Uncwilly 2020-12-15 22:22

[QUOTE=tServo;566317]A few years ago ( sorry, I don't have a link ), I remember reading about a study that examined each medicine breakthru to estimate how many lives that breakthru has saved.

Vaccines not only won, they were responsible for over half the number of lives saved !![/QUOTE]
Doing some sums from:
[url]http://www.scienceheroes.com/index.php?Itemid=27[/url]
And not counting anything twice I get: 1,076,015,000 lives saved by vaccination.

storm5510 2020-12-16 00:35

Am I afraid of the vaccine? Not really, would be my answer. If it were available now, would I take it? No. I would want to wait and see what side-effects are reported, if any. Then I would consider it. There are stories floating around about bad side-effects. Fact or fiction, I don't know.

Something I wrote in another topic: My sister, who is 61, is a RN at the local hospital and works exclusively with COVID patients. None of her nurse coworkers are willing to take it when it becomes available locally. My sister volunteered.

My last doctor checkup was one week ago. I was given a flu shot and a pneumonia shot. They said the latter is standard practice for anyone 65 or older, which I am. Unless contacted beforehand, my next appointment is March 8. If they were to offer the vaccine at some point before, I would go and take it. As far as I can tell, they will do this on an appointment basis. They would not want throngs of people gathering in all at once when the word gets out that they have it.

retina 2020-12-16 00:49

[QUOTE=storm5510;566333]If [a vaccine] were available now, would I take it? No. [b]I would want to wait[/b] and see what side-effects are reported, if any. Then I would consider it.

... my next appointment is March 8. If they were to offer the vaccine at some point before, [b]I would go and take it[/b].[/QUOTE]Those two statements confuse me. They appear to contradict each other.

storm5510 2020-12-16 02:11

[QUOTE=retina;566334]Those two statements confuse me. They appear to contradict each other.[/QUOTE]

They shouldn't, considering the time distance between. Now vs. March. A lot can happen in three months. A lot can happen in a minute...

retina 2020-12-16 03:51

[QUOTE=storm5510;566338]They shouldn't, considering the time distance between. Now vs. March. A lot can happen in three months. A lot can happen in a minute...[/QUOTE]I guess you mistyped something then. I looks like you are saying if they offer you a vaccine "some point before" March you "would go and take it". So that could be tomorrow.

LaurV 2020-12-16 04:44

[QUOTE=M344587487;566246]
The two go hand in hand. <snip> The modern problem is that cranks can now easily organise online and exponentially exacerbate their crankiness.[/QUOTE]
Very good post. :tu: :goodposting:
I have my "constipation theories" too, as someone likes to call them, but "they kill us with the vaccination" is not one of them. What would they do with an empty world? When I was in Ro, after the iron curtain went down, people were scared that rich men will come from west, buy all the factories, and fire all the workers. What would the rich people buy the factories for? To roller-skate inside? Build luxury homes? Who will buy the homes if people won't have jobs? I still have to see the entrepreneur who is stupid enough to buy a factory to scrap it, when he could use the cheap work force and cheap local supply to make production, and get rich.

Of course I would take the vaccine. Maybe 30 or 40 years ago I would have thought differently, or I would have been worried for the future LaurV generations, but now I am not going to have any children anymore, and few years more or less, caused by the vaccine, won't mean too much for myself. If there is a chance I would help others and help the society by sticking a red hot iron in my ass, I would do that too. I didn't do anything in my life worth to be remembered for, hehe.

ONeil, are you scared? You should be, but not because of vaccine. Because of people who have nothing to lose anymore...

petrw1 2020-12-16 04:48

[QUOTE=storm5510;566338]A lot can happen in a minute...[/QUOTE]

Yeah; just ask my wife :groan:

LaurV 2020-12-16 04:57

[QUOTE=firejuggler;566319]Obligatory xkcd
[URL]https://xkcd.com/1520/[/URL][/QUOTE]
I think you wanted to link this: [url]https://xkcd.com/2398/[/url]
Hihi.

Batalov 2020-12-16 06:13

No, previous one is a propos - [url]https://xkcd.com/2397/[/url]

kriesel 2020-12-16 09:45

[QUOTE=firejuggler;566319]Obligatory xkcd
[URL]https://xkcd.com/1520/[/URL][/QUOTE]And engineering made the benefits from all those fields not merely possible, but practical and economical and so widespread.

Nick 2020-12-16 09:57

What's also missing from this thread up to now is that public health is not about your health as an individual but the health of your society as a whole.

Unless your doctor advises you against it, it is your duty to those around you to get vaccinated.
When thousands of people are dying of a disease every day, your personal opinion is not relevant.

Dr Sardonicus 2020-12-16 15:13

I am not afraid of vaccinations in general, nor am I afraid of the new vaccines for COVID-19.

I do not expect any of the new vaccines to be available in sufficient quantity for general public use for months. So in that sense the question is premature. I think that people who deal directly with COVID-19 patients, be they health care providers (including family), law officers, or janitors, should get the first opportunity to gain some measure of protection.

The principal difficulties I foresee are logistical. In particular, this vaccine has to be kept [i]cold[/i] until it is used. I expect that any doses not kept cold enough will simply have to be thrown out.

I am reassured about the vaccines' safety by the clinical trials already done, and also the fact that the only arguments offered against it so far (IMO) have been based on nothing but a pack of lies, going well into the realm of raving lunacy. If there were any [i]legitimate[/i] reasons to think the vaccine were harmful, it is practically a rhetorical question to ask why such reasons are [i]not[/i] being presented.

I also note that the OP proclaims himself an anti-vaxxer, hence averse to [i]any[/i] kind of vaccination, which (at the risk of arrest for criminal belaboring of the obvious) indicates bias.

I also find the very title of the thread insulting. The appended "be honest" is an old propagandists' trick. On the one hand, it implies that anyone who doesn't answer "yes" is [i]not[/i] being honest. On the other hand, it carries a sense of entitlement to a presumption of virtue by the person asking the question, and a right to pass judgement on the honesty, and perhaps the motives, of others. Since (as I have mentioned before) the OP's arguments are IMO completely [i]dis[/i]honest, I find the demand "be honest" both disingenuous and hypocritical.

storm5510 2020-12-16 17:19

[QUOTE=retina;566344]I guess you mistyped something then. I looks like you are saying if they offer you a vaccine "some point before" March you "would go and take it". So that could be tomorrow.[/QUOTE]

Yes, it could mean tomorrow. I figure the odds of that happening are extremely small.

ONeil 2020-12-17 20:01

These companies are not liable if they hurt you with the first ever of its kind vaccine using mRNA. Wow this is big time, because now it makes me wonder about quality assurance and just why they will not back their mother of all savior concoctions.



[QUOTE]You can’t sue Pfizer or Moderna if you have severe Covid vaccine side effects. The government likely won’t compensate you for damages either
[url]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-side-effects-compensation-lawsuit.html[/url][/QUOTE]

rogue 2020-12-17 20:49

[QUOTE=ONeil;566469]These companies are not liable if they hurt you with the first ever of its kind vaccine using mRNA. Wow this is big time, because now it makes me wonder about quality assurance and just why they will not back their mother of all savior concoctions.[/QUOTE]

This is not "absolute immunity". It cannot protect the vaccine makers from "willful misconduct".

Per the article, there are options for individuals to sue the vaccine makers, but they are not easy options for individuals to take.

I think this is to stop lawyers from trying to make a lot of money with frivolous lawsuits. Maybe it goes too far, as the article suggests.

Uncwilly 2020-12-17 21:27

[QUOTE=ONeil;566469]These companies are not liable if they hurt you with the first ever of its kind vaccine using mRNA. Wow this is big time, because now it makes me wonder about quality assurance and just why they will not back their mother of all savior concoctions.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Nick;566360]What's also missing from this thread up to now is that public health is not about your health as an individual but the health of your society as a whole.[/QUOTE]Public health is so important that the federal government of the USA has set up a system to deal with claims of harm from vaccines. This allows companies to confidently do the research make the vaccine available once approved. The system is liberal in settling claims. The whole concept of doing something for the public good is lost on people. Those of us that have been careful since the appearance of the virus see the benefit of doing things to help out the public good at the expense of our own comfort. A family member of mine has seen people come into the hospital recently and die because people could not stay apart during a recent time when families often gather.

The Carnivore 2020-12-17 22:06

I have no objections to established vaccines like the polio vaccine, but would not take a newly developed mRNA vaccine in the near future because it's too soon to determine whether there will be any long term side effects from it. For example, what if it increases your risk of getting cancer a few years from now?

Uncwilly 2020-12-17 22:33

[QUOTE=The Carnivore;566490]For example, what if it increases your risk of getting cancer a few years from now?[/QUOTE]Let's look at some numbers:
[URL="https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/understanding/statistics"]https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/understanding/statistics [/URL]
[QUOTE]In 2020, an estimated 1,806,590 new cases of cancer will be diagnosed in the
United States and 606,520 people will die from the disease.[/QUOTE]
US COVID Cases 17M, Deaths 308K (total time, ~9.5 months) and by the time we hit 12 months will be ~500,000 ([URL="https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend"]here[/URL])
So, a 10% risk of cancer increase would put it at 60,652 extra cancer deaths in 2021.
And getting everyone vaccinated as soon as possible should save more lives than that in 2021.

retina 2020-12-17 22:45

So what we really need is a cancer vaccine.

Batalov 2020-12-17 22:48

[QUOTE=The Carnivore;566490]For example, what if it increases your risk of getting cancer a few years from now?[/QUOTE]
Incidentally, re: cancer: it is rather the opposite.
There is a valid path forward to treating (and even curing) cancer with "[URL="https://www.google.com/search?q=cancer+vaccines+review"]cancer vaccines[/URL]". I remember at Novartis around 2010 the beginning of talking about cancer vaccine program and at first it sounded like nonsense, but it made some sense if you listened to specialists (which we did have); and now 10+ years later, it is not even controversial.

The question about these particular vaccines is of course valid, and they have a whole arm of research in the clinical trials ([SIZE="1"]which will continue; this is whole process, a research trial after a research trial, with carefully control-matched cohorts[/SIZE]), but these are underpowered at phase-3 trial (as well as the fertility, pregnancy, breast-feeding aspects). All of these are very important and data will be collected, but as of now there is no [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_of_a_test"]statistical power[/URL] yet, but there are no contraindications based on the data that is available - and pregnant women are not excluded from the vaccination process. As for all other population, the choice is with the individual; there is no mandatory vaccination.

Batalov 2020-12-17 23:24

2 Attachment(s)
This is a bit [URL="https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download"]cumbersome to locate[/URL] - but this is a completely open access data; I will simply attach it here for ease of access. Notable important tables: Table 2 (page 18), Table 3 (page 19), Table 4 (page 20), and next tables are informative. Figure 2 is remarkable (see day 14 after 1st doze and onward).

[URL="https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download"]Similar technical report for ModeRNA[/URL] (on agenda for tomorrow's proceedings (which are, btw, also livestreamed).

Uncwilly 2020-12-17 23:32

[QUOTE=Batalov;566508]This is a bit [URL="https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download"]cumbersome to locate[/URL] - but this is a completely open access data; I will simply attach it here for ease of access.[/QUOTE]
Thanks:
[QUOTE=ONeil;566312]So 4 in 30,000 had this side affect. You numbers guys how many could it be if say since we have a supply of 250 million shots on hand and say we use it all, how many could get bells palsy? What figure would you average?

My figures are about 33,333 people would get Bells Palsy[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;566314]So that many cases is the same as background. roughly.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Safety data from approximately 38,000 participants ≥16 years of age randomized 1:1 to vaccine or placebo with a median of 2 months of follow up after the second dose suggest a favorable safety profile, with no specific safety concerns identified that would preclude issuance of an EUA. Available safety data from all participants enrolled through the November 14, 2020 data cut-off (N=43,252, which includes late enrollment of additional adolescent and adult participants), was consistent with the safety profile for the approximately 38,000 participants with median follow-up of 2 months and also did not raise specific safety concerns. The most common solicited adverse reactions were injection site reactions (84.1%), fatigue (62.9%), headache (55.1%), muscle pain (38.3%), chills (31.9%), joint pain (23.6%), fever (14.2%); severe adverse reactions occurred in 0.0% to 4.6% of participants, were more frequent after Dose 2 than after Dose 1, and were generally less frequent in participants ≥55 years of age (≤2.8%) as compared to younger participants (≤4.6%). [U]The frequency of serious adverse events was low (<0.5%), without meaningful imbalances between study arms. Among non-serious unsolicited adverse events, there was a numerical imbalance of four cases of Bell’s palsy in the vaccine group compared with no cases in the placebo group, [B]though the four cases in the vaccine group do not represent a frequency above that expected in the general population[/B][/U]. Otherwise, there were no notable patterns or numerical imbalances between treatment groups for specific categories of non-serious adverse events (including other neurologic, neuro-inflammatory, and thrombotic events) that would suggest a causal relationship to BNT162b2 vaccine. With the exception of more frequent, generally mild to moderate reactogenicity in participants <55 years of age, the safety profile of BNT162b2 was generally similar across age groups, genders, ethnic and racial groups, participants with or without medical comorbidities, and participants with or without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection at enrollment.[/QUOTE]

M344587487 2020-12-18 00:54

[QUOTE=retina;566497]So what we really need is a cancer vaccine.[/QUOTE]Crowdfunded 3D printed cancer chomping blockchain powered eco-friendly nanobots, someone should probably get on that.

CRGreathouse 2020-12-18 03:45

To back up Serge, there are at least three currently approved cancer vaccines:[list][*] TICE BCG (a therapeutic vaccine for bladder cancer, CIS or more broadly NMIBC)[*] Hep B (chronic Hep B infection is the leading risk factor for liver cancer)[*] HPV ([url=https://www.cdc.gov/cancer/hpv/basic_info/cancers.htm]HPV infection causes the majority of anal, cervical, vaginal, vulvar, penile, and oropharyngeal cancers[/url])[/list]

LaurV 2020-12-18 04:39

[QUOTE=M344587487;566519]Crowdfunded 3D printed cancer chomping blockchain powered eco-friendly nanobots, someone should probably get on that.[/QUOTE]
:w00t: :rofl:

Dr Sardonicus 2020-12-18 12:52

I know, vaccines are preventative, so this isn't a vaccine, but there is a treatment for an extremely aggressive form of brain cancer which uses transmogrified viruses (Polio viruses? I forget).

The cancer somehow fools the immune system into not detecting it as foreign. The transmogrified virus is injected into the body, and infects the cancerous tissue. This then tells the immune system, "We've got a foreign invader here!" The immune system then attacks the cancerous tissue.

Fred Saberhagen had an incident in one of his his [i]Berserker[/i] novels which was oddly prescient of this treatment.

Xyzzy 2020-12-18 13:55

[QUOTE=M344587487;566519]Crowdfunded 3D printed cancer chomping blockchain powered eco-friendly nanobots, someone should probably get on that.[/QUOTE]Dynamically-innovative agilely-crowdfunded paradigm-shifting 3D-printed cancer-chomping 5G-cloud-connected blockchain-powered next-generation eco-friendly machine-learning cage-free quantum-nanobots, as-a-service.

Batalov 2020-12-22 23:13

[B]Got my Moderna shot today.[/B] So far so good, not too sore. :whee::max::jvang:
(Our site received Pfizer first and used ~2000 for some employees, and this week received many more of Moderna and our department was next in line.)

Moderna demonstrated 94% efficacy already at 14-day timepoint after 1st dose, Pfizer didn't report this endpoint (Pfizer's reporting endpoint was 14 days after 2dn dose). It is very likely that both have very similar effect. 2nd dose is still done for both.

P.S. ...one of the hidden benefits of working in a hospital. Ben, how about you? (Mayo?)

Uncwilly 2020-12-22 23:30

Great for you!

Uncwilly 2020-12-23 04:50

1 Attachment(s)
[QUOTE=ONeil;566225]What get me is the rush with a new mRNA vaccine the first of its kind and I almost feel persecuted for asking questions of its safety?[/QUOTE].

LaurV 2020-12-23 06:11

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;567072].[/QUOTE]
Haha, right! :rofl: Lovely... Isn't that sexist? I mean... Coming from "the lady of the forum"? :razz: Like "Men are silly"? (I can't imagine females going to take blue pills...)

pinhodecarlos 2020-12-23 08:25

Not afraid of the vacine and looking forward to take it. Also I would like to know if ONeil gets infected and if you get to a state of requesting treatment, will you go to private or public health system?

ONeil 2021-01-04 21:04

Are the Covid-19 statistics fudged?

[YOUTUBE ]oBErtkeqE24[/YOUTUBEr]

This youtube link has been censorsored by Uncwilly

: 4945797:

[url]https://media2.fdncms.com/sevendaysvt/imager/u/original/4945797/bb.jpg[/url]

Uncwilly 2021-01-04 21:16

1 Attachment(s)
People are dying in huge numbers. If it is not COVID-19 (something that we do know exists) and is something that we don't know exists, then we are in deep :poop:
I have been tracking the deaths in the USofA from all sources by week and plotting the data vs the average for that week (in the past 6 years, which keeps it reasonable for population growth). The attached chart shows the deaths above that average from any cause. If it is not COVID that is killing about 8,000 or more [B][U]extra[/U][/B] Americans every week since the end of March, what is it?

ONeil 2021-01-04 21:22

So you believe the death toll and that every death is official made by covid-19 and there is no crap involved like other complications for a death hmmm

The world is truly gullible

No wonder Hitler had so many followers.

:reality-check:

ONeil 2021-01-04 21:28

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;568378]People are dying in huge numbers. If it is not COVID-19 (something that we do know exists) and is something that we don't know exists, then we are in deep :poop:
I have been tracking the deaths in the USofA from all sources by week and plotting the data vs the average for that week (in the past 6 years, which keeps it reasonable for population growth). The attached chart shows the deaths above that average from any cause. If it is not COVID that is killing about 8,000 or more [B][U]extra[/U][/B] Americans every week since the end of March, what is it?[/QUOTE]


What if I say I don't trust your source that's my right right. I could just take my phone to every hospital and film all those huge non existent lines right lol.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcT0menNM8w&t=161s[/url]

dcheuk 2021-01-04 21:41

[QUOTE=ONeil;568381]What if I say I don't trust your source that's my right right. I could just take my phone to every hospital and film all those huge non existent lines right lol.[/QUOTE]

Just because people don't want to believe something is true doesn't make it false - it's called denialism. If NYT, Reuters, AP, Washington Post, ABC combined doesn't make you believe something is true then I don't know what else can be called `real journalism' and/or how we can possibly educate people. Just because people embraces the earth is flat, evolution is a lie, global warming is a hoax and covid is cooked up by the left doesn't make it true.

We should all be scared that democracy is being corroded in the US.

Uncwilly 2021-01-04 21:54

So what killed 50% more Americans this April than normally died that week? I am tracking deaths from any source. The data is just deaths, the cause is not stated. So, you would have us believe that since the end of March last year that 8 to 25 thousand families are lying about family members dying? That mortuaries all over the country are lying about being overwhelmed by the increase in dead bodies? That thousands of families are buying burial plots that they don't need? That county morgues all over the country are lying about the number of dead in storage? That hospitals all over the country are renting refrigerated trailers for no reason, because the dead bodies don't exist? And family members are being for death announcements that they don't need? You can choose not to believe the data, just like you can choose not to believe in gravity and jump off a cliff. Just because you choose not to believe it, does not make it false. There are so many different data sets that are pointing to a large rise in deaths in the USA that it is irrefutable.

You have shown us in the past that you believe in falsehoods. For example that a Mersenne number with an exponent greater than 13 can have 13 as a divisor. Just because you believe it, it is not false.

Again, the data source I am using is reporting all deaths, from any source. I am doing analysis on the data. BTW, the data also show a [U]small[/U] decrease in mortality of those under 18 during the spring of 2020. This figures well with fewer number of miles travelled by not going to school and other factors.

Till 2021-01-04 22:17

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;566557]I know, vaccines are preventative, so this isn't a vaccine, but there is a treatment for an extremely aggressive form of brain cancer which uses transmogrified viruses (Polio viruses? I forget).

The cancer somehow fools the immune system into not detecting it as foreign. The transmogrified virus is injected into the body, and infects the cancerous tissue. This then tells the immune system, "We've got a foreign invader here!" The immune system then attacks the cancerous tissue.

Fred Saberhagen had an incident in one of his his [I]Berserker[/I] novels which was oddly prescient of this treatment.[/QUOTE]


Do you remember which type of cancer?
I just had a friend dying of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glioblastoma[/url] in december. I thought that is the most aggressive brain cancer and didn't hear of any possible cure.

ONeil 2021-01-04 22:24

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;568386]So what killed 50% more Americans this April than normally died that week? I am tracking deaths from any source. The data is just deaths, the cause is not stated. So, you would have us believe that since the end of March last year that 8 to 25 thousand families are lying about family members dying? That mortuaries all over the country are lying about being overwhelmed by the increase in dead bodies? That thousands of families are buying burial plots that they don't need? That county morgues all over the country are lying about the number of dead in storage? That hospitals all over the country are renting refrigerated trailers for no reason, because the dead bodies don't exist? And family members are being for death announcements that they don't need? You can choose not to believe the data, just like you can choose not to believe in gravity and jump off a cliff. Just because you choose not to believe it, does not make it false. There are so many different data sets that are pointing to a large rise in deaths in the USA that it is irrefutable.

You have shown us in the past that you believe in falsehoods. For example that a Mersenne number with an exponent greater than 13 can have 13 as a divisor. Just because you believe it, it is not false.

Again, the data source I am using is reporting all deaths, from any source. I am doing analysis on the data. BTW, the data also show a [U]small[/U] decrease in mortality of those under 18 during the spring of 2020. This figures well with fewer number of miles travelled by not going to school and other factors.[/QUOTE]

I admitted I was wrong about 13 and I am still running the Lucas Lemer test on 2^109947391-1.

ONeil 2021-01-04 22:33

Are the vaccines safe? Bill Gates?????????????

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edDclRmBxhU[/url]

rogue 2021-01-04 22:42

YouTube is not a credible source of information. Some information you find might be credible and some might not be credible, but in general I wouldn't trust it at face value.

VBCurtis 2021-01-04 22:47

More to the point: This is not a forum for promoting conspiracy theories. You were nearly banned for trolling already with your "I don't understand the math or the programs used here, so instead I wrote programs that don't work instead of using the ones that do!" games.

So, after a short apology for being a tool, you now resume posting your conspiracy BS. This shows a disregard for our forum, and you should expect to be banned. Linking youtube videos without adding insight is spam.

ONeil 2021-01-04 22:48

[QUOTE=rogue;568399]YouTube is not a credible source of information. Some information you find might be credible and some might not be credible, but in general I wouldn't trust it at face value.[/QUOTE]

So the only credible source is what your government tells you?

Uncwilly 2021-01-04 22:51

[QUOTE=ONeil;568389]I admitted I was wrong about 13 and I am still running the Lucas Lemer test on 2^109947391-1.[/QUOTE]
So address the other issues and questions I brought up in this post.
[QUOTE=Uncwilly;568386]So what killed 50% more Americans this April than normally died that week? I am tracking deaths from any source. The data is just deaths, the cause is not stated. So, you would have us believe that since the end of March last year that 8 to 25 thousand families are lying about family members dying? That mortuaries all over the country are lying about being overwhelmed by the increase in dead bodies? That thousands of families are buying burial plots that they don't need? That county morgues all over the country are lying about the number of dead in storage? That hospitals all over the country are renting refrigerated trailers for no reason, because the dead bodies don't exist? And family members are being for death announcements that they don't need? You can choose not to believe the data, just like you can choose not to believe in gravity and jump off a cliff. Just because you choose not to believe it, does not make it false. There are so many different data sets that are pointing to a large rise in deaths in the USA that it is irrefutable.

You have shown us in the past that you believe in falsehoods. For example that a Mersenne number with an exponent greater than 13 can have 13 as a divisor. Just because you believe it, it is not false.

Again, the data source I am using is reporting all deaths, from any source. I am doing analysis on the data. BTW, the data also show a [U]small[/U] decrease in mortality of those under 18 during the spring of 2020. This figures well with fewer number of miles travelled by not going to school and other factors.[/QUOTE]

ONeil 2021-01-04 23:10

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;568402]So address the other issues and questions I brought up in this post.[/QUOTE]


I cannot voice my opinion here, because I don't wish to be banned I'm thinking of deleting this post to satisfy the censors.

Uncwilly 2021-01-05 00:47

[QUOTE=ONeil;568405]I cannot voice my opinion here, because I don't wish to be banned I'm thinking of deleting this post to satisfy the censors.[/QUOTE]It appears that you believe that 100,000 families in the USA are lying about losing loved ones. And that 100,000 of doctors around the world are lying about losing patients. Why would Dr in Russia, China, Italy, Sweden, the UK, the USA, Peru, Cuba, Brazil, etc., etc. all say that people are dying of this, if that is not true? Those governments can't agree on anything. And if you think that the USA is lying about this, then why to you believe the :poop: that the current squatter in the WH is saying?

rogue 2021-01-05 01:07

[QUOTE=ONeil;568401]So the only credible source is what your government tells you?[/QUOTE]

You need to differentiate between opinion and fact. Journalists vet their sources for accuracy. "Personalities" are not journalists. Most people on YouTube are personalities. Most people during prime time on CNN and Fox News are personalities. Like FB, they want people to watch or like them and will say and do whatever it takes to get viewers.

IMO, I blame Section 230 for what social media has become. Trump wants Section 230 abolished so that social media cannot censor what people post. I want Section 230 abolished so that social media has more skin in the game WRT what its users post. I think that abolishing Section 230 would seriously hurt FB and "mein space", aka Parler, because they would suffer repercussions by continuing to allow the spreading of misinformation. The problem is that one can pack a lie amongst a lot of truths and for that single reason the lie will be seen as true.

Back to your question, I think that PolitiFact and snopes.com make honest attempts to determine the veracity of conspiracy theories. The problem is that many conservatives hate these sources because they view them as "liberal". Are they perfect, probably not, but they are certainly better than YouTube, FB, and Parler.

rogue 2021-01-05 01:16

The difficulty that people have with the COVID numbers is that "having COVID at time of death" means to some that COVID was the sole cause of death but to others that it was a contributing factor. I think the fair question is that if someone with co-morbid conditions gets COVID, that they are far more likely to die because of COVID than the co-morbid conditions. Sure, they might eventually die of co-morbid conditions even without COVID, but we cannot predict when that would have occurred so COVID gets the blame. I think that it is fair to do that. The increase in deaths per annum certainly supports that assessment.

One thing I have wondered is if people with co-morbid conditions are dying at a younger age, will this increase average life expectancy for those who survive? If they die at a younger age, will we possibly see a reduction (short term) in overall health care costs because we are not spending $$$ to keep those people alive for additional months or years?

What saddens me is the selfish behavior I see in people who get COVID symptoms but refuse to get tested because they don't want to be forced to quarantine for two weeks. It is saying "I don't care if I go out and someone else gets COVID for me (and possibly dies) because I don't want to be inconvenienced".

ONeil 2021-01-05 01:26

I'm wrong again and I apologize my mind has been muddled by the web thanks for bringing me to my senses I agree with the data Uncwilly.

In the future I will stick with factoring ok I'm on to a a big factoring python code discovery wish me luck on M109947391 sorry everyone this was a dumb post

Dr Sardonicus 2021-01-05 01:56

[QUOTE=ONeil;568401]So the only credible source is what your government tells you?[/QUOTE]I think it is reasonable to infer from your question, that you are as ignorant as gravel about how a person's cause of death is "officially" determined. And your question is thus based on Green's Law of Debate, "Anything is possible if you don't know what you're talking about."

Do you know who makes out and signs the death certificates that give cause of death of someone who dies of natural causes while under medical care, including in a hospital? Do you [i]care?[/i] I'll give you a hint: It's generally [i]not[/i] a government employee or official.

So, my answer to your question is "no."

MisterBitcoin 2021-01-05 02:07

I am honestly concerned about the B.1.1.9 mutation and once i am on the list of vaccination i will take it.

This might be in just a few months due to my job.



The Vaccines are tested, however very rare cases of allergic reaction happen. There is no reason to be concerned about the vaccine at all.



About those "Corona is a lie"-People.


Those are idiots. Just a few weeks ago i lost a family member due to an COVID infection.

Uncwilly 2021-01-05 19:15

[QUOTE=ONeil;568418]I'm wrong again and I apologize my mind has been muddled by the web thanks for bringing me to my senses I agree with the data Uncwilly.

In the future I will stick with factoring ok I'm on to a a big factoring python code discovery wish me luck on M109947391 sorry everyone this was a dumb post[/QUOTE]

And be cause you and others believed idiots and not truthful scientists and diligent journalist people without COVID are also now dying because of it. The hospitals can't treat everyone.
[url]https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=568505&postcount=1243[/url]

mart_r 2021-04-02 07:37

[QUOTE=ONeil;566302]
Bill is already planning how to avoid all those who die from the shots by selling this:
March 31, 2021 people will be dyeing in a an unpresented manner far worse than now just wait and see. I have feeling some of those people will be ones who got the jab.[/QUOTE]

Well, in some countries, people [I]are[/I] dying in an unprecedented manner, especially in Brazil.
Certainly some of them died [I]after[/I] they got their jab.
But I strongly doubt there is much of a correlation there...
(OTOH, maybe I just see an implication in your post that isn't really there...)

Dr Sardonicus 2021-04-02 13:40

[QUOTE=ONeil;566302]I will not take this experimental mRNA shot thank you very much. The proteins it will produce will weaken everyone's immune response.
<snip>
March 31, 2021 people will be dyeing in a an unpresented manner far worse than now just wait and see. I have feeling some of those people will be ones who got the jab.
[/QUOTE]I haven't seen anything to support the assertion that the vaccine would "weaken everyone's immune response." On the contrary, I have heard a number of instances in which (1) people had a stronger reaction to the second shot than to the first, (2) people vaccinated soon after recovering from a COVID infection have experienced symptoms indicating a strong immune response, and (3) vaccinated people getting infected with COVID-19, but experiencing no symptoms or only mild symptoms.

I assume the poster meant "dying in an unprecedented manner," or possibly "dying in unprecedented numbers."

The number of COVID-19 deaths in the USA in December 2020 was around 63,000; in January 2021 around 79,000; and in March 2021, around 38,000.

Other than deaths from COVID-19, which have decreased as these publicly available figures show, I haven't heard of any unusual numbers of deaths in the US recently.


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