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-   -   Predict M52 (https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=23892)

greenskull 2021-10-13 09:23

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;502537]
2. [COLOR=Olive]Your guess [B]must include a prime number[/B] (we are guessing the exponent) and/or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.) Failure to guess a prime number will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.[/COLOR][/QUOTE]

Q: Have I indicated the prime number AND / OR date?
A: Yes, I indicated the date in the very first comment and then 3 or 4 more times in the explanations.

Q: Have I indicated an interval?
A: Yes, but I indicated it as an addition that can be ignored according to the rules. The interval is indicated NOT INSTEAD of the date, but in addition to it.

Q: Did I not specify a number?
A: I have not specified a number. This is explained in the rules - AND / OR. It is allowed to indicate the date without a number. Moreover, I have already seen this in this thread.

I think we have exhausted this issue. Or not yet? :)

[QUOTE=Dobri;590381]Irrespective of the and/or option, [STRIKE]Catch 22[/STRIKE] Rule #2 ends in "Failure to guess a prime number will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6."
This imposes a 60-day wait for guessing only a specific date, right?[/QUOTE]
I have nothing against this.

kruoli 2021-10-13 09:24

[QUOTE=Dobri;590381]Irrespective of the and/or option, [STRIKE]Catch 22[/STRIKE] Rule #2 ends in "Failure to guess a prime number will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6."
This imposes a 60-day wait for guessing only a specific date, right?[/QUOTE]
That rule is for "experts" which predict composite exponents like "I think M123456788 will be the next Mersenne prime!". So the emphasis goes on [I]prime[/I] in that sentence. Maybe it should be phrased "Guessing a Mersenne number with composite exponent will...".

tuckerkao 2021-10-13 11:02

[QUOTE=greenskull;590382]Q: Did I not specify a number?
A: I have not specified a number. This is explained in the rules - AND / OR. It is allowed to indicate the date without a number. Moreover, I have already seen this in this thread.

I think we have exhausted this issue. Or not yet? :)
[/QUOTE]
The format of the Mersenne number guessing is more like the example below, best if there's a link provided directly towards the specific exponent that has passed the recommended P-1 and trial factoring tests with no known factors.

M[M]168779323[/M] on Feb 14, 2022

tuckerkao 2021-12-08 01:56

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;588992]Why don't we just take 2021-10-08 as the start of your 60 day wait[/QUOTE]
It has been 61 days since that, so I'm eligible to request the P-1 of M[M]196828523[/M] from Kriesel and expect the PRP to be finished by 12/27/2021 if NF-PM1.

As UncWilly previously demanded, I must guess an exponent from a new range, thus M196M qualifies.

Uncwilly 2021-12-08 02:05

[QUOTE=tuckerkao;594701]I'm eligible to request the P-1 of M[M]196828523[/M] from Kriesel and expect the PRP to be finished by 12/27/2021 if NF-PM1.[/QUOTE]You can guess that number, but Kriesel is at liberty to ignore your guess and not do any work on it. If you are using guesses to get someone to do work on a number for you, there may be consequences.

tuckerkao 2021-12-08 02:46

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;577907]We have a loooong way to go to say it will be the longest gap.

2013-01-25 - 2009-04-12 = 1384 days
1996-09-03 - 1994-01-04 = 973 <- sort of counts.
2015-09-17 - 2013-01-25 = 965
2001-11-14 - 1999-06-01 = 897 days

As of now we are 882 days[/QUOTE]
As of 12/08/2021, the gap has been significantly narrowed. 1097 days since a new Mersenne Prime was last discovered. Kriesel is at liberty to extend the drought to reach the exceptional level.

Surprisingly no one else had placed 1 single guess before me since greenskull left his final comment. You made it sound like it was inappropriate to keep this thread going.

tuckerkao 2021-12-08 04:21

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;594703]You can guess that number, but Kriesel is at liberty to ignore your guess and not do any work on it. If you are using guesses to get someone to do work on a number for you, there may be consequences.[/QUOTE]
I had a few private messages with Kriesel several months ago. He said that he couldn't exclusively test my guesses(running PRPs) without the limits, so he wanted me to follow this thread with the rule of 3 active guesses only, so fair to other users too.

As I recall that same day(didn't remember exactly when), Kriesel told me how I could adjust my mfaktc config, so the trial factoring process would auto-stop as soon as a factor was found.

ZFR 2021-12-08 12:20

Is there a link to current list of predictions, so I don't pick a number already taken?

tuckerkao 2021-12-08 12:23

[QUOTE=ZFR;594739]Is there a link to current list of predictions, so I don't pick a number already taken?[/QUOTE]
It's on post #291

ZFR 5/7/2021 109287103 12/14/2021
ZFR 5/7/2021 109287119 12/14/2021
ZFR 5/7/2021 109287131 12/14/2021

You cannot guess more numbers as all 3 previous exponents are still above the milestone.

ZFR 2021-12-08 16:03

[QUOTE=tuckerkao;594740]It's on post #291

ZFR 5/7/2021 109287103 12/14/2021
ZFR 5/7/2021 109287119 12/14/2021
ZFR 5/7/2021 109287131 12/14/2021

You cannot guess more numbers as all 3 previous exponents are still above the milestone.[/QUOTE]

I know all this. I meant list of all live numbers picked by others.

Uncwilly 2021-12-08 17:01

I will post it a bit later. I may have to step away from the terminal at a moment's notice.


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