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-   -   Predict M52 (https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=23892)

LaurV 2018-12-27 02:09

What do we get if we guess right? :razz:

christian_ 2018-12-27 03:10

93456799 - 7 April 2019
106456799 - 22 January 2020
146456881 - 3 February 2022

Spherical Cow 2018-12-27 18:24

It can't be this close to M51, but that's what I said about the last two primes. I'll go with 97211981, October 30, 2019.

ixfd64 2018-12-27 18:38

M96052357 on May 21, 2021
M110691683 on January 3, 2025
M121596589 on October 8, 2027

Uncwilly 2018-12-27 18:57

[QUOTE=Neutron3529;503776]85615531 Oct. 2019
87946949 Oct. 2019
92074531 Oct. 2019
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Uncwilly;502537]
[B]THE RULES OF THE GAME:[/B][list=1][*].[*].[*][COLOR=Orange]You can [B]not[/B] guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed. If you do guess a number or date that has already been submitted, this will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6. [/COLOR][/list][/QUOTE]Oct 1 is used by your first guess. Therefore the dates for your 2nd and 3rd guesses are being ignored. You must wait 60 days before guessing anymore dates. At that time you may only guess the date, you can't update the number.

patrik 2018-12-28 12:18

91502209 on December 4, 2020

Uncwilly 2018-12-28 15:30

The advantages of guessing late:

84000017 on Feb 28, 2019
89999999 on Apr 15, 2020
95000167 on Sept 24, 2021

firejuggler 2019-01-02 22:00

lets say M
M85,020,577 on 1 january 2020
[URL="https://www.mersenne.ca/exponent/87522767"]M87,522,767 on 3 january 2021[/URL]
[URL="https://www.mersenne.ca/exponent/90098611"]M90,098,611[/URL] on 1 february 2022

Uncwilly 2019-01-04 15:37

2 Attachment(s)
A couple of nice graphs of the guesses:
The first one is a scatter plot. The 2 outer lines were upper and lower bounds (until firejuggler came in and guessed all 3 above the upper bound.) The box represents more than half of the guesses. And I ignored the most pessimistic guesses for this.

In the second I re-assigned the dates and guesses, such that the lowest guess was paired with the earliest date. Graphed with a nice trendline for your pleasure.

GP2 2019-01-04 16:11

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;504930]A couple of nice graphs of the guesses:[/QUOTE]

So, 60% of the guesses are below 100M. And only one (!) guess is solidly above the expected median line of 1.47576 × the previous prime exponent = 121.88M, with three in the borderline area.

I'll revive [URL="https://mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?p=475814&postcount=3"]my previous guess[/URL] of 282,362,693 on March 3, 2025. And yes, it's another p=1 (mod 4).

Uncwilly 2019-01-04 16:23

[QUOTE=GP2;504935]So, 60% of the guesses are below 100M. And only one (!) guess is solidly above the expected median line of 1.47576 × the previous prime exponent = 121.88M, with three in the borderline area.[/QUOTE]
I left these off the charts:
258150181 March 12, 2052
402143633
and these had no date associated with them, so they are not on the left plot:
87885437
87946949
92074531

Current summary
[CODE]Who When guessed Exponent When found
Uncwilly 12/28/2018 84000017 2/28/2019
firejuggler 1/2/2019 85020577 1/1/2020
Neutron3529 12/13/2018 85615531 10/1/2019
firejuggler 1/2/2019 87522767 1/3/2021
Petrw1 12/12/2018 87654361 12/25/2019
moebius 12/14/2018 87885437
Neutron3529 12/13/2018 87946949
kriesel 12/21/2018 88318673 6/14/2019
Uncwilly 12/29/2018 89999999 4/15/2020
firejuggler 1/2/2019 90098611 2/1/2022
patrik 12/18/2018 91502209 12/4/2020
Neutron3529 12/13/2018 92074531
christian_ 12/27/2018 93456799 4/7/2019
axn 12/21/2018 94029857 3/17/2021
Uncwilly 12/30/2018 95000167 9/24/2021
EWMayer 12/12/2018 96000193 5/1/2021
ixfd64 12/27/2018 96052357 5/21/2021
Dylan14 12/14/2018 97200647 2/2/2021
Spherical Cow 12/27/2018 97211981 10/30/2019
christian_ 12/27/2018 106456799 1/22/2020
axn 12/21/2018 107054317 8/31/2023
Prime95 12/16/2018 107448181 6/1/2022
Batalov 12/12/2018 110691517 6/19/2022
ixfd64 12/27/2018 110691683 1/3/2025
masser 12/12/2018 117003179 11/24/2022
masser 12/12/2018 118788157 8/8/2020
ixfd64 12/27/2018 121596589 10/8/2027
kriesel 12/21/2018 121882753 5/21/2025
axn 12/21/2018 121882903 7/12/2026
christian_ 12/27/2018 146456881 2/3/2022
Brian-E 12/21/2018 258150181 5/15/2027
GP2 1/4/2019 282362693 3/3/2025
kriesel 12/21/2018 402143633 3/12/2052
tServo 12/14/2018 12/31/2019
moebius 12/14/2018 1/13/2020
[/CODE]


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