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-   -   [Mission Accomplished] Let's finish primality verification through Mp#48*, M(57 885 161) (https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=26591)

 kriesel 2021-10-06 09:38

[QUOTE=greenskull;589605]The game was not fair[/QUOTE]Nonsense. The data you graphed and used to make your predictions included the effects of whatever poaching occurred along the way to those data points. You chose an obvious but inferior metric, and analysis that failed to account for the nonlinearity built into the assignment rules. Statistical analysis and a linear fit, not understanding of the actual mechanisms. Don't whine, learn from it. Read and understand posts [URL="https://mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=582097&postcount=18"]18[/URL]-20 and several following explanatory posts.

 greenskull 2021-10-06 10:38

[QUOTE=kriesel;589610]Nonsense. The data you graphed and used to make your predictions included the effects of whatever poaching occurred along the way to those data points. You chose an obvious but inferior metric, and analysis that failed to account for the nonlinearity built into the assignment rules. Statistical analysis and a linear fit, not understanding of the actual mechanisms. Don't whine, learn from it. Read and understand posts [URL="https://mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=582097&postcount=18"]18[/URL]-20 and several following explanatory posts.[/QUOTE]

Yes, I have hyperopia.
I see worse up close, but very good into the distance :)

 firejuggler 2021-10-06 10:55

 greenskull 2021-10-06 11:14

:thumbs-up:
I'm already there and in the game.

 kriesel 2021-10-06 14:31

[QUOTE=greenskull;589611]I see worse up close, but very good into the distance :)[/QUOTE][URL="https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/there+is+none+so+blind+as+those+who+will+not+see"]"very good"[/URL] until irrefutably proven otherwise. Yet the denial continues.

 greenskull 2021-10-06 14:34

[QUOTE=kriesel;589637][URL="https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/there+is+none+so+blind+as+those+who+will+not+see"]"very good"[/URL] until irrefutably proven otherwise. Yet the denial continues.[/QUOTE]

I'm not interested in competing in demagoguery. I'm interested to see your M#49 forecast :)

 kriesel 2021-10-06 16:31

[QUOTE=greenskull;589639]I'm not interested in competing in demagoguery. I'm interested to see your M#49 forecast :)[/QUOTE]Projections for Mp#49*-51* were previously [URL="https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=502995&postcount=11"]posted[/URL] 2021-08-26 and you were notified of that. See page 5 of second attachment for projected dates and background. I don't see a point to spending any time attempting to refine it after so brief an interval. Nor a point in engaging with you further on the topic, as it is unproductive.

 Prime95 2021-10-06 17:22

[QUOTE=kriesel;589604]1 LL and 1 PRP on [M]57773081[/M]. Server called it done. Milestone reached.[/QUOTE]

As I predicted, a poacher was destined to intervene before the exponent expired.

Congrats to all the hard-working DCers!!

 kriesel 2021-10-06 18:40

Mp48 milestone appears to have been delayed relative to trend of recent DC milestones

5 Attachment(s)
Comparing the last 12 days before reaching the 54M, 55M, 56M, 57M, and Mp48, respectively, indicates a trend toward more DC results submitted in the final days each time, except for Mp48 there was a decline. Some possibilities why that may be so:
Higher Mp means higher run time. Not clear why that would matter at Mp48 but not before.
Increased emphasis on not poaching for the Mp48 milestone.
Possibly change in number of users or systems doing LLDC generally.
Probably there are more.

To follow up on deltas of lowest remaining exponent below a milestone, the last was 112080.

 lycorn 2021-10-06 20:41

[QUOTE=Prime95;589661]As I predicted, a poacher was destined to intervene before the exponent expired.

[/QUOTE]

Quite frankly, I can´t see the point in poaching an exponent that had been released to the legit user only 13 days ago. Aren´t the expiry rules supposed to be followed?
If I were user AndersM I would be really p***ed off. I find these poaching initiatives more detrimental than beneficial to the project, but maybe it´s just me :alien:

 kriesel 2021-10-06 21:30

No matter where the expiration duration is set, or how well people resist poaching, there will be triple matching results on occasion. Take a look at the attachments of post 130. Most of the last 10 results are usually third matching res64. In the future PRP/GEC/proof will help reduce that because certs issue with priority and complete very fast.

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