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-   -   Predict M47 (https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=10655)

Flatlander 2008-09-15 14:49

Re. Predict M47
 
Do you mean the date of the 47th prime found (whatever the size) or the date of a new record prime?

Mini-Geek 2008-09-15 14:57

[quote=Flatlander;142541]Do you mean the date of the 47th prime found (whatever the size) or the date of a new record prime?[/quote]
Technically, "M47" would mean the 47th Mersenne prime, regardless of the discovery order, but I mean the 47th Mersenne prime to be discovered (i.e. guessing an "M47" value below a known Mersenne prime is allowed), regardless of it being the true M47 (and, therefore, assuming no other primes are discovered larger than M46, the world record) or not.
I think we can all figure out the 47th prime pretty easily, it's the 47th Mersenne prime that's a bit more difficult. :wink:

xilman 2008-09-15 15:23

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;142539]1/19/2038[/QUOTE]Nice!


Paul

ET_ 2008-09-15 15:37

20/12/2012 (European date)

Xyzzy 2008-09-15 16:43

[quote]Nice![/quote]
We were a bit off for M44…

[url]http://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=5201[/url]

xilman 2008-09-15 17:34

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;142559]We were a bit off for M44…

[url]http://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=5201[/url][/QUOTE]Sure, but at least I recognize the significance of that date.


Paul

Xyzzy 2008-09-15 19:27

It was either that date or 12/21/2012.

T.Rex 2008-09-15 19:32

We need a poll
 
We need a poll with a dozen of years. So that anyone can guess and we'll have a global view of all guesses.
My guess is: M47 will be found before end of 2010.
And the 100M prime will be found around 2020 (I previously said 2023. Changed my mind) and it will be M50 or M51. [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution"]Poisson[/URL] told me ! And I believe in [URL="http://image-photos.linternaute.com/image_photo/550/autres-animaux-aquatiques-mayotte-1169808904-1139058.jpg"]Poisson[/URL]. Don't you like "[URL="http://primes.utm.edu/notes/faq/NextMersenne.html"]Poisson[/URL]" ?
Bad we are not 1rst of April...
Tony

xilman 2008-09-16 07:47

[QUOTE=T.Rex;142593]We need a poll with a dozen of years. So that anyone can guess and we'll have a global view of all guesses.
My guess is: M47 will be found before end of 2010.
And the 100M prime will be found around 2020 (I previously said 2023. Changed my mind) and it will be M50 or M51. [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution"]Poisson[/URL] told me ! And I believe in [URL="http://image-photos.linternaute.com/image_photo/550/autres-animaux-aquatiques-mayotte-1169808904-1139058.jpg"]Poisson[/URL]. Don't you like "[URL="http://primes.utm.edu/notes/faq/NextMersenne.html"]Poisson[/URL]" ?
Bad we are not 1rst of April...
Tony[/QUOTE]As they say, one man's fish is another man's poisson...

Paul

nngs 2008-09-16 18:10

1 Attachment(s)
My prediction of M45 was quite off ([url]http://mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=130178&postcount=174[/url]), and didn't even have a chance to predict M46 (my prediction of M46 surely
would be even more off if I give a try).

Now is my prediction of M47:

M47 exponent is around 90087850.
1 sigma range of this prediction is between 69,814,566 and 116,248,250

How I made:

I assume [TEX]$\log_2(\log_2(M_{\rm n}))$[/TEX] depends on n as [TEX]A+B\times n+C\sin(D\times n+E)[/TEX]

The best fit using all 46 known mersenne primes is:
A=1.1253235 +/- 0.125
B=0.55185022 +/- 0.00484
C=0.68753629 +/- 0.0850
D=0.29490442 +/- 0.00560
E=-3.2489748 +/- 0.149

Attached figures is the best fit curve verus 46 data points

ixfd64 2008-09-16 18:12

I predict that "M47" will be discovered early this December, and it will be in the 45M range. That's right - three new Mersenne primes in the same year.


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