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The Carnivore 2021-02-06 19:36

[QUOTE=The Carnivore;570599]So let's say that you're offered the less effective vaccine now, but not the more effective one.[/QUOTE]
[url]https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/health/Covid-vaccine-explainer.html[/url]

[quote]
Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine might have seemed disappointing. Its overall efficacy ... was reported at [b]72 percent[/b] in the United States...

Those figures appear far below the high bar set by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna ... which reported overall efficacy from [b]94 to 95 percent[/b]...

[b]If you woke up and you say, ‘Well, go to the door on the left and you get 94 or 95 percent, go to the door on the right and you get 72 percent,’ which door do you want to go to?” he asked[/b]...

the more crucial measure was the ability to prevent severe disease, which translates to keeping people out of the hospital and preventing deaths. And that result, for Johnson & Johnson, was [b]85 percent[/b]...

The Moderna vaccine also showed high efficacy, [b]100 percent[/b], against severe disease. The Pfizer-BioNTech one appeared to as well...[/quote]

Now here's the debate:
[quote]Dr. Schaffner said he had just attended a meeting with other public health experts, and they had asked one another what they would tell their spouses or partners to do if they could get the Johnson & Johnson vaccine tomorrow, or had to wait three weeks for Pfizer-BioNTech’s or Moderna’s.

“All of us said, ‘Get the one tomorrow,’” Dr. Schaffner said.[/quote]
If you do the math, there were a little under a million new cases over the past week in the U.S, compared with a population of ~330 million. Therefore, an unvaccinated person's odds of getting infected next week are ~0.3%.

Someone getting 72% protection would have a ~0.084% chance of getting infected and a ~99.916% chance of staying healthy on a specific week, while someone getting 95% protection would have a ~0.015% chance of getting infected and a ~99.985% chance of staying healthy.

If person A receives the J&J vaccine today and person B receives the Pfizer vaccine three weeks later, their odds of remaining uninfected are:
[code]
Week Person A Person B Comments
0 100% 100% Person A receives vaccine
1 99.7% 99.7%
2 99.62% 99.40% Person A is 72% protected
3 99.53% 99.10% Person B receives first dose
4 99.45% 98.81%
5 99.37% 98.66% Person B is 50% protected
6 99.28% 98.51% Person B receives second dose
7 99.20% 98.36%
8 99.12% 98.35% Person B is 95% protected
9 99.03% 98.33%
10 98.95% 98.32%
11 98.87% 98.30%
12 98.78% 98.29%
13 98.70% 98.27%
14 98.62% 98.26%
15 98.53% 98.24%
16 98.45% 98.23%
17 98.37% 98.21%
18 98.29% 98.20%
19 98.20% 98.18%
20 98.12% 98.17% Person A's risk is now greater than Person B's
[/code]
Of course, this assumes that the infection rates remain roughly the same. If cases continue declining, it'll take more than 20 weeks for Person A to have a greater cumulative risk than Person B. But if cases surge, it'll take less than 20 weeks for Person A to have a greater cumulative risk than Person B.

henryzz 2021-02-06 20:56

[QUOTE=The Carnivore;571019]Of course, this assumes that the infection rates remain roughly the same. If cases continue declining, it'll take more than 20 weeks for Person A to have a greater cumulative risk than Person B. But if cases surge, it'll take less than 20 weeks for Person A to have a greater cumulative risk than Person B.[/QUOTE]

That is a very strong assumption. New cases dropped by 25% in a week in the UK(data delayed by a week). If that continues the risk will be lots lower by the time Person B is protected. We may get another spike again but with the vaccine involved it would require stupidity from the government to allow it to get so high again(or a new mutation).

Batalov 2021-02-06 22:11

I like The Carnivore's computation. :thumbs-up::thumbs-up:

It is like being in World War I (imagine yourself inside "1917") and being gassed.
What is a better strategy - A) take a wet cloth (actually a fairly decent cloth, 85%-protecting) over your face and run for shelter, or B) hold you breath while looking all around the bunker for the proper gas mask....

After all, no one is saying that with strategy A you will not also find the proper gas mask some time later.

Uncwilly 2021-02-06 22:38

And it should be noted that the Triple J (Jansen/J&J) vaccine will likely be used in locations where it is hard to get the other ones. With the cold chain issues, the J[SUP]3[/SUP] vaccine might be great for say: the Amish, tribal areas, oil platforms, small military outposts, etc.
Get the most practical protection to people as fast as possible. Those that get the J[SUP]3[/SUP] will help protect those that get the Pfizer or Moderna and vice versa. Carnivore's numbers assume that the risk does not drop. As more and more get vaccinated, the risk for any given week to the whole population drops.

Dr Sardonicus 2021-02-07 02:21

I have read that the J&J vaccine, despite its lower rate of prevention, is nonetheless effective in tamping down COVID infections to where they do not require hospitalization.

Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA) received the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine before January 20, and tested positive for COVID-19 on January 29. He went into quarantine. He wasn't showing symptoms. I don't know whether he was infectious, but obviously a positive test means you treat him like he is.

The Carnivore 2021-02-07 03:17

[QUOTE=Batalov;571035]I like The Carnivore's computation. :thumbs-up::thumbs-up:

It is like being in World War I (imagine yourself inside "1917") and being gassed.
What is a better strategy - A) take a wet cloth (actually a fairly decent cloth, 85%-protecting) over your face and run for shelter, or B) hold you breath while looking all around the bunker for the proper gas mask....
[/QUOTE]
The bunker isn't that big, hold your breath and find that gas mask!

There are times when running away from a bad situation is typically not in your best interest even though it may be your first instinct. Encounters with mountain lions and bears come to mind.

Batalov 2021-02-07 03:48

1 Attachment(s)
But what it there is no black cat (the gas mask) only the black room (the bunker).

"Do or do not! There is no try."

Why don't I attach a cringeworthy picture to soil the previous sentence. :rolleyes:
[SPOILER]It is actually Elizabeth Holmes in the now-defunct Theranos lobby.. Someone wrote:
"I have hated that goddammed idiotic line from the first time I ever heard it. Anyone who ever quotes it is either absolutely brainless or a con artist. There are no other choices. Both types should be avoided for your own good."
Funny. maybe they worked there.
I do think there are other choices. Sometimes it simply sounds fun.[/SPOILER]

retina 2021-02-07 04:33

[QUOTE=The Carnivore;571019]Now here's the debate:
[quote]Dr. Schaffner said he had just attended a meeting with other public health experts, and they had asked one another what they would tell their spouses or partners to do if they could get the Johnson & Johnson vaccine tomorrow, or had to wait three weeks for Pfizer-BioNTech’s or Moderna’s.

“All of us said, ‘Get the one tomorrow,’” Dr. Schaffner said.[/quote][/QUOTE]Why not both?

Take JJ tomorrow [b]and[/b] PB and/or M in three weeks.

Dr Sardonicus 2021-02-08 01:28

1 Attachment(s)
[QUOTE=Batalov;571052]"Do or do not! There is no try."[/QUOTE]Reminded me of this old cartoon.

Batalov 2021-02-08 03:18

I am happy to report that I helped 4 folks vac'd today.
Rady's hospital runs a family and friends program (they still [B]have to[/B] be 65+ or caretakers) - but it was really helpful for them because most places run at a '2-3-4 hour time to invest' for vaccinating and they spent only 30 minutes (including 15 min obligatory wait after) - and were very happy to have it.
P.S. Interestingly, they got Pfizer!

paulunderwood 2021-02-12 14:59

I have just had my first jab with Pfizer. Please put me down for a Feb vote.

Chuck 2021-02-15 19:22

Second Moderna vaccination completed this morning at a large project run by a local hospital at the county fairgrounds (2,000 vaccinations).

The Carnivore 2021-02-15 20:13

[QUOTE=firejuggler;567134]France has decided to vaccinate eldery first, then medical personnel working with them. As a young (almost 40) and not at-risk person, the vaccine will be availlable to the general population in spring.[/QUOTE]
I don't necessarily agree with this, but there is a case to be made for getting rid of the tiers and just distributing vaccines based on a lottery system. All lives matter, and prioritizing one group over another sends some questionable messages.

If you vaccinate certain professions first, you're saying that some essential workers are worth more than other essential workers even if that's not reflected in their salary or experience. Why is a cop more valuable than a teacher, or vice-versa? Should a firefighter with 10 years of experience be vaccinated over a firefighter with 1 year of experience? Why aren't farmworkers and grocery store workers as valuable as health care workers? Society needs all of those people to run smoothly. If anything, farmworkers, slaughterhouse workers, and grocery store workers should be prioritized over health care workers since most people can survive longer without medical attention than they can without food.

If you vaccinate the elderly first, you're not extending their life expectancy and preventing the virus's spread as much as if you were to vaccinate the young and middle-aged first. If you prevent a 95 year old's death now, he/she will likely die of something else in the next 2-3 years. But if you prevent a 55 year old's death now, he/she is likely to live another 20-30 years, and if you prevent a 25 year old's death now, he/she is likely to live another 50+ years. And wouldn't a working-age adult be more likely to contract and spread the disease than a retiree who can stay at home almost all of the time? And if nursing home staff can get vaccinated, what about those who choose to live with and take care of their elderly parents instead of sending them to a nursing home?

If you vaccinate those with underlying health conditions first, you're saying that people who've likely made bad health decisions should be prioritized over those who've likely taken care of their health. Why should a smoker, a type 2 diabetic, or an obese person get priority over those who had a good diet, exercised, and didn't partake in those vices?

If you vaccinate those in certain living conditions first, you're saying that personal responsibility doesn't matter. Why should a prisoner have a greater priority than a law-abiding citizen who may live in an overcrowded apartment with multiple roommates? Why should a homeless person have a greater priority than someone who worked hard, lived frugally, and has a modest home?

Chuck 2021-02-15 20:36

[QUOTE=The Carnivore;571677]I don't necessarily agree with this, but there is a case to be made for getting rid of the tiers and just distributing vaccines based on a lottery system. All lives matter, and prioritizing one group over another sends some questionable messages.[/QUOTE]

The Florida county where my sister lives is doing vaccinations by lottery.

Uncwilly 2021-02-15 21:57

[QUOTE=The Carnivore;571677]I don't necessarily agree with this, but there is a case to be made for getting rid of the tiers and just distributing vaccines based on a lottery system. All lives matter, and prioritizing one group over another sends some questionable messages.

If you vaccinate certain professions first, you're saying that some essential workers are worth more than other essential workers even if that's not reflected in their salary or experience.[/QUOTE]Ok, let's hand out bullet proof vest at random to all 'essential workers'. The person cleaning out the sewers can get one the same as the lab tech in the hospital and the same as the cop and the pilot. And same with radiation shielding, we will hand that out randomly, the trash truck driver, the postal worker and the teacher will all get the same chance as an x-ray tech. So much sense there.

Old folks are vastly more likely to die from COVID than a 20 year old. Staff working at care facilities are more likely to be a vector to bring the virus into a care facility or shuttle it between patients. People working in the hospital have a much larger exposure risk than the person picking up trash dumpsters. EMS personnel have high exposure risks. A person writing code at home (or screenplays or opinion articles) has a low risk. People who live in concentrated groups (like poor immigrants and soldiers) have a higher exposure risk.

Dr Sardonicus 2021-02-15 23:39

(my emphasis)
[quote=The Carnivore;571677]<snip>
All lives matter, and prioritizing one group over another sends some questionable messages.

If you vaccinate certain professions first, [b]you're saying that[/b]
<snip>
If you vaccinate those with underlying health conditions first, [b]you're saying that[/b]
<snip>
If you vaccinate those in certain living conditions first, [b]you're saying that[/b]
<snip>[/quote]IMO you're [i]hearing[/i] that, or [i]striving[/i] to hear that, because you want to get on your ideological hobby horse.

[quote]If you prevent a 95 year old's death now, he/she will likely die of something else in the next 2-3 years.
<snip>[/quote]So, [i]you're[/i] saying that anybody 95 years of age or older should be denied [i]any[/i] kind of potentially lifesaving medical treatment. They don't have long to live anyway, so their lives aren't worth saving...

[i]You're[/i] saying that, rather than a system based on slowing the spread of the disease, and trying to protect those most susceptible to suffering severe illness from it, you would prefer denying vaccines to those found unworthy by a Death Panel...

:devil: :stirpot:

The Carnivore 2021-02-16 03:08

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;571695](my emphasis)
IMO you're [i]hearing[/i] that, or [i]striving[/i] to hear that, because you want to get on your ideological hobby horse.

So, [i]you're[/i] saying that anybody 95 years of age or older should be denied [i]any[/i] kind of potentially lifesaving medical treatment. They don't have long to live anyway, so their lives aren't worth saving...

[B][i]You're[/i] saying that, rather than a system based on slowing the spread of the disease[/b], and trying to protect those most susceptible to suffering severe illness from it, you would prefer denying vaccines to those found unworthy by a Death Panel...

:devil: :stirpot:[/QUOTE]
Nope, I'm saying that there's a case to be made for not prioritizing anyone and giving out vaccines randomly instead. If a 95 year old wins the vaccine lottery, give it to him/her. If a 20 year old wins the vaccine lottery, give it to him/her.

If anything, vaccinating 20 year olds would slow the spread of the disease a lot more than vaccinating 95 year olds would. The average 20 year old comes into contact with a lot of people - classmates, co-workers, older family members, friends, roommates, significant others, etc. The average 95 year old's social circle, OTOH, is much smaller.

The Carnivore 2021-02-16 03:19

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;571690]Ok, let's hand out bullet proof vest at random to all 'essential workers'. The person cleaning out the sewers can get one the same as the lab tech in the hospital and the same as the cop and the pilot. And same with radiation shielding, we will hand that out randomly, the trash truck driver, the postal worker and the teacher will all get the same chance as an x-ray tech. So much sense there.
[/QUOTE]
If vaccines are prioritized based on profession, those involved in water treatment, food production, food delivery, and energy/power generation should be prioritized over healthcare workers. If everyone involved in healthcare died today, 80+% of the country would be alive in April. But if everyone directly involved in the food, water, and energy sectors were to die today, 80+% of the country would be dead by April.

Batalov 2021-02-16 08:53

[I]Interesting[/I] - It seems that the antibody test that BloodBank uses (after blood donation; namely "Vitros Total Anti-SARS-CoV-2"; it tests against S1 protein) becomes positive after Moderna vac.
Some other antibody tests are checking against N-protein so they remain negative (at least that's what hospital communications said - meaning the one that they are internally using).

Uncwilly 2021-02-16 13:41

[QUOTE=Batalov;571735][I]Interesting[/I][/QUOTE]I think the ARC must be running both, because they have results from donations of: [FONT="Arial Black"][SIZE="4"]+ [/SIZE][/FONT] , [FONT="Arial Black"][SIZE="4"] -[/SIZE][/FONT] and 'Well it's complicated' (my words). That later only shows up when people have had the jab.

xilman 2021-03-03 18:07

Today. Ox-AZ version.

Second dose booked for 2021-05-19T15:55Z.

ryanp 2021-03-03 21:09

Just got mine today - Moderna.

pinhodecarlos 2021-03-12 14:05

Wife had hers today, the Ox-AZ version one.

storm5510 2021-03-15 16:13

Got my first today. Moderna. The second is on April 12.

Xyzzy 2021-03-17 13:16

We received dose #1 (Pfizer) yesterday. The injection site is really sore but other than that everything is fine. We waited at the VA until the end of the day and they had enough left over to take care of us.

:mike:

tServo 2021-03-17 16:21

I just noticed that someone got their shot next month.
OK, fess up, who has the time machine?

pinhodecarlos 2021-03-17 18:17

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;573935]We received dose #1 yesterday. The injection site is really sore but other than that everything is fine. We waited at the VA until the end of the day and they had enough left over to take care of us.

:mike:[/QUOTE]

My wife had very difficult one day and a half after injection but normal when she gets flu. Paracetamol, rest and lots of fluids, mainly red wine.

storm5510 2021-03-17 18:40

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;573935]We received dose #1 yesterday. The injection site is really sore but other than that everything is fine. We waited at the VA until the end of the day and they had enough left over to take care of us.
[/QUOTE]

Wait times at any VA can be lengthy. I used to take a neighbor for his appointments in Louisville, KY, back in the 1980's. It seemed like an all day deal, but it probably was not. I remember the huge framed image of Ronald Reagan in the lobby. A new facility is being constructed in Louisville, the last I heard. There is not enough room at the one I was in.

The soreness in my upper-right arm is gone. It was quite sore yesterday morning when I got up, but eased as the day passed.

frmky 2021-03-17 19:43

For me the second Pfizer shot definitely hit harder. I got the shot in the early afternoon and symptoms started kicking in that evening. I felt crappy the next day with mostly muscle aches and chills. Symptoms started subsiding that night, and I woke up the following day feeling fine.

Batalov 2021-03-17 19:50

I now have a (semi-)vaccinated family unit (N=4; with n=6 shots so far).
Because Phase 1C has just opened on 3/15 in our county and we were able to get the appointments - my wife and son got the first shot (Pfizer). They both felt fine after.

Xyzzy 2021-03-17 20:36

[QUOTE=storm5510;573949]Wait times at any VA can be lengthy.[/QUOTE]One of the super powers that we have developed (involuntarily) is the ability to wait extremely long periods of time in a line without going bananas.

:mike:

PhilF 2021-03-17 22:58

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;573961]One of the super powers that we have developed (involuntarily) is the ability to wait extremely long periods of time in a line without going bananas.

:mike:[/QUOTE]

Please be sure to donate your DNA to science so we can figure out how you do it.

S485122 2021-03-17 23:20

[QUOTE=tServo;573940]I just noticed that someone got their shot next month.
OK, fess up, who has the time machine?[/QUOTE]Not sure if a mod can remove that vote and contact the time voyager...

Jacob

Dr Sardonicus 2021-03-18 13:34

[QUOTE=S485122;573983]Not sure if a mod can remove that vote and contact the time voyager...

Jacob[/QUOTE]Mods (and presumably Admins) can edit the poll. Somebody has done so. The April vote is gone, and the number of March votes has increased from 7 to 8.

Whether that somebody was the time traveler, or another person who learned the identity of the time traveler and made contact, I do not know. I only know that the somebody was not me.

PhilF 2021-03-18 15:35

A time traveler would simply hop back in time again to fix the problem that exposed his existence in the first place.

So instead of a time traveler I propose it was a forum member's drunk cat playing on the keyboard. :newcat:

storm5510 2021-03-18 16:18

[QUOTE=frmky;573955]For me the second Pfizer shot definitely hit harder. I got the shot in the early afternoon and symptoms started kicking in that evening. I felt crappy the next day with mostly muscle aches and chills. Symptoms started subsiding that night, and I woke up the following day feeling fine.[/QUOTE]

Mine was Moderna. However, this is what concerns me. Other than the sore arm, the first shot did not bother me. I suppose I will learn for myself on April 12 and the days following the second shot.

frmky 2021-03-18 19:07

[QUOTE=storm5510;574050]However, this is what concerns me. Other than the sore arm, the first shot did not bother me. I suppose I will learn for myself on April 12 and the days following the second shot.[/QUOTE]
With the first shot I just had a sore arm and a short, mild headache. However, for me completing the vaccination was worth one day of reduced productivity.

xilman 2021-03-19 18:26

[QUOTE=storm5510;574050]Mine was Moderna. However, this is what concerns me. Other than the sore arm, the first shot did not bother me. I suppose I will learn for myself on April 12 and the days following the second shot.[/QUOTE]The Ox-AZ dose gave me a sore arm for ~4 days and even more lethargy than usual for 2 days. No other side-effects noticed as I recall.

CRGreathouse 2021-03-19 19:49

I had an extremely sore arm for ~48 hours after my first shot (Pfizer) and the same, but for less than a day, following the second shot. My wife, who got the same vaccine, was practically knocked out for a day (lethargy and generally "down") from the first shot and similar (feeling bad the same day, then tired the first half of the next) following the second. I hear the side effects are generally worse for (nonpregnant) women, which matches our experience. But I wouldn't give much credence to an N = 2.

bsquared 2021-03-19 20:06

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;574148]
I hear the side effects are generally worse for (nonpregnant) women, which matches our experience. But I wouldn't give much credence to an N = 2.[/QUOTE]

My wife's reaction was much worse as well, so make that N = 3.

xilman 2021-03-19 20:19

[QUOTE=bsquared;574149]My wife's reaction was much worse as well, so make that N = 3.[/QUOTE]I had a significantly worse reaction than SWMBO.

To the best of our knowledge, neither of us are pregnant.

The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".

richs 2021-03-21 14:08

I had Pfizer shots on 19 February and 12 March. Minor injection site soreness for one day occurred both times. My wife is waiting for the Johnson & Johnson shot which is in short supply in northern California.

mart_r 2021-03-21 20:24

My mom (80) had her first BioNTech/Pfizer shot on Wednesday. Apart from feeling a bit tired - as she mostly does - she didn't mention any other side effects.

slandrum 2021-03-21 21:06

My dad has had both shots (PFizer) - and both times he had some soreness in the arm near the injection site but that was it. He was anticipating a reaction to the second shot because that had been what others had been reporting, but didn't have anything noticeable.

I'm now "elgible" in my area, but not able to schedule mine yet. Probably within a week or so, though.

LaurV 2021-03-22 03:16

[QUOTE=bsquared;574149]My wife's reaction was much worse as well, so make that N = 3.[/QUOTE]
My wife's reaction when I said I don't want to get the vaccine unless it is mandatory, was much worse either :lol:, so make that N=4 :razz:.
(edit: to make it clear, this is a joke, neither me nor my wife got the vaccine, but we have relatives who got it).

Joking apart, she really wants to go to Australia to visit our daughter, and I have a bad feeling I can't escape this time, if the traveling opens and the vaccine is required, I will have to get one. Any one, I don't really care. I don't believe that at my age, and without intention to have more children in the future, a vaccine can affect my future in any way... It is just the laziness, or the wish to keep the status quo. I also suspect it will not be cheap (for farangs living in Thai, these things are not free, they tend to cost a lot).

Prime95 2021-03-23 03:23

Got my vaccine (first shot) today!

@LaurV: You just spent $1700 on hardware but won't spring for a vaccine? Please reconsider - we need you here for the long haul!

LaurV 2021-03-23 04:20

:blush: Haha, thanks George. Busted...:redface:

:busted:

Uncwilly 2021-03-30 22:15

I got my second shot last week. My immune system response was substantial. It was not fun. But, I would do it again and again to prevent getting C19.

masser 2021-03-30 22:19

Just got my 1st Pfizer jab, about a month earlier than I expected. Mild nausea has been the only side effect so far.

Uncwilly 2021-03-30 22:23

[QUOTE=masser;574815]Just got my 1st Pfizer jab, about a month earlier than I expected. Mild nausea has been the only side effect so far.[/QUOTE]
Did you log your data into the poll?

masser 2021-03-30 22:41

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;574816]Did you log your data into the poll?[/QUOTE]

Of course.

Batalov 2021-03-31 02:56

I will never get tired of saying this (and I am not alone in this, this is not an original idea):
[B]No matter how you detest your government (and how much it lied to you in the past) - do get vaccinated with [I]any[/I] local vaccine. [/B]
If you can get two vaccines - that's fine - do that too.
If you have already had COVID, still get vaccinated. Protection from past infection is better than nothing but weaker than that from a vaccine.
[LIST][*]Janssen (J&J) is a fine vaccine.[*]Pfizer is a fine vaccine.[*]Moderna is a fine vaccine.[*]AZ is a fine vaccine.[*]CovidVac, SinoVac, "Sputnik-V", all of them are fine vaccines.[/LIST]They are all better than "spitting out pieces of your broken luck" (to paraphrase JT), better than a viral heart damage, better than a viral brain damage that will stay with you for the rest of your life.

Don't hope that you will just lose your sense of smell, or cough hard for a week. It does not amount to just that. Think about early infarction of early dementia (and all other bouquet of [URL="https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-long-covid-pasc"]PAS-C[/URL]).

The vaccination is [B]not[/B] between you and your hated government - it is between you and the cold, senseless bug that doesn't care about your religion or your political preferences. Protect yourself. Be safe!

(not much of a US problem, this. My message is rather an international one.)

Uncwilly 2021-03-31 04:11

[QUOTE=Batalov;574823][B]No matter how you detest your government (and how much it lied to you in the past) - do get vaccinated with [I]any[/I] local vaccine. [/B]
If you can get two vaccines - that's fine - do that too.[LIST][*]Janssen (J&J) is a fine vaccine.[*]Pfizer is a fine vaccine.[*]Moderna is a fine vaccine.[*]AZ is a fine vaccine.[*]CovidVac, SinoVac, "Sputnik-V", all of them are fine vaccines.[/LIST][/QUOTE]
Get which ever one you can get your hands on first.

Novavax's vaccine is fine too.
[url]https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/novavax-covid-19-vaccine.html[/url]
(I know some one that has been part of the trial.)

petrw1 2021-03-31 04:29

Which one???
 
[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3odScka55A[/url]

It doesn't matter.
Just get one.

Dr Sardonicus 2021-03-31 12:44

[QUOTE=Batalov;574823]<snip>If you have already had COVID, still get vaccinated. Protection from past infection is better than nothing but weaker than that from a vaccine.[/QUOTE]Please explain.

My uncle, who is in his nineties, got vaccinated after recovering from COVID-19, and said it was just like having COVID-19 all over again.

I've heard about similar cases, too. I'm not sure what to make of this phenomenon. Does it perhaps indicate that the vaccines trigger a different immune response than the body's response to being infected? If so, yes, that would seem to mean a strengthened immunization.

If the immune response to the vaccine is distinguishable from that to the actual virus, it also might leave open the possibility of testing for prior infection. If the immune responses are not distinguishable, it might be difficult to tell whether a vaccinated person had also been infected.

There is at least one study underway to determine whether vaccinated people can still be "silently" infected (I have heard of at least one fully vaccinated person who tested positive), and if so, whether the virus they shed is still infectious.

I add to the chorus - get vaccinated! Which is best? The one you can get first!

pinhodecarlos 2021-03-31 13:40

Also stop complaining about the vaccination risk. In life there is no 0% risk.

Dr Sardonicus 2021-03-31 14:18

[QUOTE=pinhodecarlos;574846]Also stop complaining about the vaccination risk. In life there is no 0% risk.[/QUOTE]

Sadly, most prison staff are refusing the vaccine. Their reasons include distrust of prison administration, fear of "long-term effects" of the vaccine, and belief in lunatic nonsense being crapped all over social media and the internet - the vaccine "contains tracking devices." It will "mutate your DNA." and on and on. Some say they would rather be fired than take the shot.

I've been watching US law enforcement line-of-duty deaths (LODDs) at the [url=https://www.odmp.org/search/year/2021]Officer Down Memorial page[/url]. Changing the year to 2020 shows last year's figures. Over half the LODDs have been from COVID-19. Of the COVID-19 LODDs, most have been corrections officers or other officers who worked with prisoners; most of the rest have been Homeland Security working at border crossings. Texas has an especially dismal record.

Unfortunately, people who would refuse vaccination for a disease that has their peers dropping like flies are unlikely to be swayed by facts and reason.

pinhodecarlos 2021-03-31 14:43

I'm sick and tired of people not getting vaccinated, then use my taxes to get treated on the national health service. Go to private sector instead! (Not sure if this statement works in USA)



Also don't complain it is not democratic because you can't chose which vaccine to take, grow up. Problem is much bigger than you think.

petrw1 2021-03-31 14:45

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;574841]Please explain.

My uncle, who is in his nineties, got vaccinated after recovering from COVID-19, and said it was just like having COVID-19 all over again.

I've heard about similar cases, too. I'm not sure what to make of this phenomenon. Does it perhaps indicate that the vaccines trigger a different immune response than the body's response to being infected? If so, yes, that would seem to mean a strengthened immunization.[/QUOTE]

That's a good thing. Yes, that is your immune system recognizing the threat and taking action. That is what your Uncle experienced, not the virus in case he thinks he was infected was a live virus.
I'm not speaking as a Doctor, far from it. Merely repeating a reputable Dr. He also said that studies show those who fully recovered from Covid have a stronger immunity than those who received any of the full vaccines. That suggests your Uncle may not have needed it but they still recommend it because: 1. Well it can't hurt (figuratively speaking). 2. Unless it was obvious that you had Covid and not just a bad cold, the process to test for it is much more difficult and not 100% reliable.

Dr Sardonicus 2021-03-31 15:37

[QUOTE=petrw1;574850]That's a good thing. Yes, that is your immune system recognizing the threat and taking action. That is what your Uncle experienced, not the virus in case he thinks he was infected was a live virus.[/QUOTE]He knows the vaccine he got didn't have virus.

The symptomatic immune response to the vaccine still seems notable. It seems that vaccinated (and presumably immunized) people who have subsequently tested positive have not exhibited any symptoms. I'm not sure why someone who has recovered (and is presumably immune) would show symptoms in response to the vaccine.

Since I'm not a physician or immunologist, I can only guess. Perhaps the vaccine delivers a bigger "challenge" than re-infection. Re-infection would probably start with a small number of virus particles. The immune response would likely bring it under control fairly quickly, and then sort of "keep a lazy eye on it."

But the vaccine would deliver a big load of foreign "spike" protein being manufactured all at once, and the immune system response would be, "All hands to battle stations!" And/or the immune system might see the vaccine "challenge" as a [i]different[/i] challenge than the original infection, and create different antibodies. I just don't know.

Batalov 2021-03-31 22:41

I am not very deeply knowledgeable in infectious diseases, but what I do know allows me to critically think in an informed fashion. I had listened to many talks (and 40+ weekly Hospital internal zoom townhalls, and those guys are really good; one is on the FDA panel). I digested (without giving proper attribution) multiple sources. the latest of them was a long talk by Prof. [URL="https://gvn.org/sars-cov-2-response-efforts/gvn-center-and-member-spotlight-konstantin-chumakov/"]K.Chumakov[/URL] (GWU, FDA), I would give a link but [URL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yh8BFa-2ZHQ"]it is all in Russian[/URL]. In Russia, covid dissidence is an enormous problem, but everyone notes that the same single reason is playing out in nearly every country: there is no single government that doesn't lie (or at least is perceived to lie), and it is universal. So, there are many folks who in effect think "To spite my mother, I will run in the yard without a hat and freeze off my ears." (Russian proverb loses in translation :-) literally: "Назло мамке - отморожу уши".

So, the argument for vaccination after having had covid is relatively new but sound. The main gist of it is that the active covid disease has a distinct path (from vaccination) with one important component is that live virus as part of its own function deliberately weakens your immune system in general and also blinds immune system to itself initially*. So, vaccination really instructs and teaches you immune system without suppressing it. (Rather, it greatly boosts it, so you will for a while have less colds etc.)

After recovering from covid, people are better protected than 'naive' subpopulation but less so than from vaccination. For covid veterans, some vaccines will be better than others - preferably mRNA vaccines; adenovirus-based vaccines not so much but still good to have.
There is also compassionate argument: if you are a covid veteran, get other people vaccinated first and then still do it, - let's say after 3 months or so.

___
*[I]footnote[/I]: cancer has the same characteristics! When cancer vaccinations will be available (it is not a fantasy - there is active research for a decade ongoing) also be much better for you than having a cancer and surviving it.

Uncwilly 2021-03-31 22:56

[QUOTE=Batalov;574879]*[I]footnote[/I]: cancer has the same characteristics! When cancer vaccinations will be available (it is not a fantasy - there is active research for a decade ongoing) also be much better for you than having a cancer and surviving it.[/QUOTE]The HPV vaccine provides preventative benefit against several cancers. Shirely you know that.

Dr Sardonicus 2021-04-01 13:33

[QUOTE=Batalov;574879]<snip>
So, the argument for vaccination after having had covid is relatively new but sound. The main gist of it is that the active covid disease has a distinct path (from vaccination) with one important component is that live virus as part of its own function deliberately weakens your immune system in general and also blinds immune system to itself initially*. So, vaccination really instructs and teaches you immune system without suppressing it.
<snip>
*[I]footnote[/I]: cancer has the same characteristics! When cancer vaccinations will be available (it is not a fantasy - there is active research for a decade ongoing) also be much better for you than having a cancer and surviving it.[/QUOTE]
So, the vaccine creates a specific "challenge" (the "spike protein" with the mRNA vaccines) and your immune system clearly recognizes it as foreign, and responds accordingly. No viral trickery or attack on the immune system.

Meanwhile, a month after my second jab (Moderna), I have had no indication yet of genetic mutation. As you can see, my appearance still remains completely normal

:crgreathouse:

EdH 2021-04-01 13:47

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;574913]. . .As you can see, my appearance still remains completely normal

:crgreathouse:[/QUOTE]That doesn't quite match your other picture (avatar)!

Dr Sardonicus 2021-04-01 14:49

[QUOTE=EdH;574917]That doesn't quite match your other picture (avatar)![/QUOTE]It doesn't? I suppose you're going to say it's also different from the identical image [url=https://mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=570284&postcount=64]here[/url]...

EdH 2021-04-01 15:03

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;574924]It doesn't? I suppose you're going to say it's also different from the identical image [URL="https://mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=570284&postcount=64"]here[/URL]...[/QUOTE]No! I can tell that was just from a different camera.

ATH 2021-04-01 17:57

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;574841]There is at least one study underway to determine whether vaccinated people can still be "silently" infected (I have heard of at least one fully vaccinated person who tested positive), and if so, whether the virus they shed is still infectious.[/QUOTE]

My grandmother is 102 and living in a nursing home in Stockholm. She got her 2nd vaccine mid to late February, but on March 19th she was tested positive, and was isolated. She had slight fever and runny nose just 1-2 days and then nothing. Now she is negative again and out of isolation.

Nick 2021-04-01 18:10

[QUOTE=ATH;574943]Now she is negative again and out of isolation.[/QUOTE]
Good to hear! :smile:

Dr Sardonicus 2021-04-01 18:41

[QUOTE=ATH;574943]My grandmother is 102 and living in a nursing home in Stockholm. She got her 2nd vaccine mid to late February, but on March 19th she was tested positive, and was isolated. She had slight fever and runny nose just 1-2 days and then nothing. Now she is negative again and out of isolation.[/QUOTE]Her being 102, I'm glad it was a mild case and she's recovered! This is the first case I have heard of where a fully-vaccinated person had COVID-19 with symptoms.

People living in nursing homes getting it is never good news. I hope everyone else living there had been vaccinated too.

Which vaccine was it?

ATH 2021-04-01 20:27

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;574951]Her being 102, I'm glad it was a mild case and she's recovered! This is the first case I have heard of where a fully-vaccinated person had COVID-19 with symptoms.

People living in nursing homes getting it is never good news. I hope everyone else living there had been vaccinated too.

Which vaccine was it?[/QUOTE]

All of the nursing home has been vaccinated, I'm not sure about the staff but I think so.

I do not know which vaccine she got, I forgot to ask my aunt. I can ask her tomorrow if she knows/remembers. I live in Denmark and have not been able to visit my family in Stockholm since August 2020.

My aunt got 1st shot of Moderna and 2nd shot on April 16th. She will turn 80 on May 25th, imagine turning 80 with your mother still alive.


Edit: [URL="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/03/vaccine-breakthrough-cases/618330/"]Don’t Be Surprised When Vaccinated People Get Infected[/URL]

[QUOTE]Since mid-December, when the rollout of the newly authorized vaccines began, nearly 40 million Americans have received the jabs they need for full immunization. A vanishingly small percentage of those people have gone on to test positive for the coronavirus. The post-shot sicknesses documented so far seem to be mostly mild, reaffirming the idea that inoculations are powerful weapons against serious disease, hospitalization, and death. This smattering of cases is a hazy portent of our future: Coronavirus infections will continue to occur, even as the masses join the ranks of the inoculated. The goal of vaccination isn’t eradication, but a détente in which humans and viruses coexist, with the risk of disease at a tolerable low.[/QUOTE]

Batalov 2021-04-01 20:55

[QUOTE=ATH;574960]...imagine turning 80 with your mother still alive.
[/QUOTE]
Two answers (please don't take offense, just an attempt at light humor):
1. ...imagine turning 80 with your mother-in-law still alive. :jvang:
2, We have to ask [URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles,_Prince_of_Wales"]Charles[/URL] that question.

slandrum 2021-04-01 21:55

[QUOTE=Batalov;574962]
1. ...imagine turning 80 with your mother-in-law still alive. :jvang:
[/QUOTE]

I imagine that's much more common. In fact your mother-in-law could be younger than you are.

Batalov 2021-04-01 22:50

[QUOTE=https://ru.citaty.net/tsitaty/470503-andrei-garoldovich-knyshev-odin-umnyi-malchik-zhenilsia-na-bogatoi-starushke-a/]One smart young man married a rich old woman. And when he died, she got all his fortune.

~~ A.Knyshev[/QUOTE]
(I actually had thought that someone else said that.)

ryanp 2021-04-01 23:01

2nd dose of Moderna for me today. Arm's a bit sore -- no factoring for me tonight!
:chappy:

petrw1 2021-04-02 04:50

[QUOTE=ryanp;574970]2nd dose of Moderna for me today. Arm's a bit sore -- no factoring for me tonight!
:chappy:[/QUOTE]

So that's why I'm not finding as many factors as you.
I'm not using my arm.
Sheesh.

Dr Sardonicus 2021-04-02 14:00

[QUOTE=ryanp;574970]2nd dose of Moderna for me today. Arm's a bit sore -- no factoring for me tonight!
:chappy:[/QUOTE]Soreness, especially around the injection site, is common. The RN who gave me my first jab said to use the arm, which I did, "to tolerance." It worked out the stiffness and relieved the soreness. I like to think that exercise helps "flush the crud out."

MooMoo2 2021-04-05 05:42

I got both doses (Pfizer) last month. Here's how it went for those who're interested:

March 3 - got dose 1 in the afternoon. Ran a few miles in the evening and felt a bit more tired than usual, but had no other symptoms
March 4 - had a really sore arm and fatigue, but did not have fever or any other symptoms
March 5 - felt normal again aside from that sore arm, which I could barely move. The injection site appears to be slightly red and swollen.
March 8 - arm soreness finally goes away

March 20 - ran 1200m in 3:42.9 (pre-second dose baseline fitness test)

March 23 - got dose 2 in the afternoon in the same arm. Ran in the evening and felt a bit tired, but had no other symptoms (this was similar to March 3).
March 24 - got hit hard by the vaccine's side effects. Endured fever, chills, headache, fatigue, and loss of appetite throughout the entire day. Going from the couch to the bathroom felt like climbing a mountain.
March 25 - symptoms were mostly but not completely gone. Weirdly enough, my arm wasn't as sore as it was two days after the first dose. Went on a 20 minute run and felt similar to the evenings of March 23 and March 3.
March 26 - no noticeable symptoms aside from a slightly sore arm
March 27 - no arm soreness or any other noticeable symptoms. Ran 1200m but felt very tired right from the beginning. Was expecting a horrendously slow time but finished in 3:44.6, which was similar to my 3:42.9 time on March 20.

April 3 - Fitness has fully recovered. Ran 1500 meters in a personal best time of 4:40.52 (slightly faster than 5:01 min / mile pace), but got thrashed by almost everyone else: [url]https://www.tfrrs.org/results/67606/4169866/APU_Invitational_and_Distance_Carnival/[/url]


10/10, would recommend again.

Xyzzy 2021-04-05 13:21

We are scheduled to get our second dose on Wednesday.

The weather is scheduled for rain that day. We ride a motorcycle and we don't want to get wet and cold. (The hospital is 100 miles away, so 200 miles round trip.)

Should we get the second dose a day early or a day late?

:mike:

retina 2021-04-05 13:31

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;575233] Should we get the second dose a day early or a day late?[/QUOTE]The UK is delaying the second dose in order to get more people with the first dose. So I'd guess that it doesn't matter much if you leave it till next week, or next month.

Dr Sardonicus 2021-04-05 13:45

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;575233]We are scheduled to get our second dose on Wednesday.

The weather is scheduled for rain that day. We ride a motorcycle and we don't want to get wet and cold. (The hospital is 100 miles away, so 200 miles round trip.)

Should we get the second dose a day early or a day late?[/QUOTE]They [i]schedule[/i] the weather where you live? I'm impressed! Where I live, they only try to [i]forecast[/i] the weather, and the forecast for two days ahead is iffy.

If you can actually reschedule your shot for a day earlier, that might be the easiest solution. Kind of depressing in a way that that would be an option, though - when I got my shots, the clinic was booked solid pretty quickly for both rounds, so it was either go when I was scheduled, or wait until the next round.

I'm just thinking - what the weather will be tomorrow is probably significantly less uncertain than what it will be on Thursday. Be a shame to reschedule and get rained on anyway...

xilman 2021-04-05 15:06

[QUOTE=retina;575236]The UK is delaying the second dose in order to get more people with the first dose. So I'd guess that it doesn't matter much if you leave it till next week, or next month.[/QUOTE]Yup. It doesn't much matter as long as you get the second within 3 months of the first.

For the avoidance of doubt: that's what the medics say and I'm just repeating it. Please don't be tempted to shoot the messenger.

The Carnivore 2021-04-06 02:37

[QUOTE=Xyzzy;575233]We are scheduled to get our second dose on Wednesday.

The weather is scheduled for rain that day. We ride a motorcycle and we don't want to get wet and cold. (The hospital is 100 miles away, so 200 miles round trip.)

Should we get the second dose a day early or a day late?

:mike:[/QUOTE]
A day late would be better than a day early:
[url]https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/clinical-considerations.html[/url]

"The second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines should be administered as close to the recommended interval as possible, but not earlier than recommended (i.e., 3 weeks [Pfizer-BioNTech] or 1 month [Moderna]). However, second doses administered within a grace period of 4 days earlier than the recommended date for the second dose are still considered valid. If it is not feasible to adhere to the recommended interval and a delay in vaccination is unavoidable, the second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines may be administered up to 6 weeks (42 days) after the first dose. Currently, only limited data are available on efficacy of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines administered beyond this window."

[QUOTE=MooMoo2;575211]I got both doses...
March 4 - had a really sore arm and fatigue...
March 5 - ...that sore arm, which I could barely move. The injection site appears to be slightly red and swollen.
March 24 - got hit hard by the vaccine's side effects. Endured fever, chills, headache, fatigue, and loss of appetite throughout the entire day. Going from the couch to the bathroom felt like climbing a mountain.

April 3 - Ran 1500 meters in a personal best time of 4:40.52: [url]https://www.tfrrs.org/results/67606/4169866/APU_Invitational_and_Distance_Carnival/[/url]
[/QUOTE]
Marjorie Taylor Greene says you can skip the vaccine misery and just rely on your workout to protect you from the virus: [url]https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-workout-video.amp[/url]

storm5510 2021-04-06 23:46

[QUOTE=MooMoo2]March 23 - got dose 2 in the afternoon in the same arm. Ran in the evening and felt a bit tired, but had no other symptoms (this was similar to March 3).
March 24 - got hit hard by the vaccine's side effects. Endured fever, chills, headache, fatigue, and loss of appetite throughout the entire day. Going from the couch to the bathroom felt like climbing a mountain.
March 25 - symptoms were mostly but not completely gone. Weirdly enough, my arm wasn't as sore as it was two days after the first dose. Went on a 20 minute run and felt similar to the evenings of March 23 and March 3.
March 26 - no noticeable symptoms aside from a slightly sore arm
March 27 - no arm soreness or any other noticeable symptoms.[/QUOTE]

I am due for my 2nd dose in six days. The 1st was Moderna. I do not see why the local hospital, where I received the 1st dose, would change. The name is shown on the CDC card I was given.

I fear a lot of the things in the quote above. This may seem silly: The first shot was in my right arm. I am going to insist the second be in my left arm. I had one day of noticeable soreness a day after the first shot. Otherwise, I felt fine. and still do.

Uncwilly 2021-04-06 23:55

[QUOTE=storm5510;575385]I am due for my 2nd dose in six days. The 1st was Moderna. I do not see why the local hospital, where I received the 1st dose, would change. The name is shown on the CDC card I was given.[/QUOTE]I worked at a mass vaccination site early in Feb. We were giving out Moderna. If someone was coming in for a second dose and they had gotten Pfizer, the official word was it was ok but they had to be consulted with by the on-site Pharmacist. Either one can be the second dose for the other.

Batalov 2021-04-07 00:02

Our site's official position is that they will match. In operations, they'd acquired mostly Pfizer now (and 2 of us got Moderna x2, and 2 others from our family got Pfizer x2), but the hospital keeps some offset Moderna for 2nd shots, and some J&J for people who are allergic to some component of Pfizer (it is not alum, something else, lipids probably).

I still attend internal townhalls (though my acute interest to vaccine is now greatly diminished - all kids* are protected). I did hear that they received clearance for mix-and-match as the last resort; FDA allows for it. Their best effort is aimed at matching shot 1 and 2.

* [SPOILER]I call them kids, though they are >25.[/SPOILER]

frmky 2021-04-07 05:37

My actual kid is my biggest concern now. All of the adults in my immediate family have had both shots. I know outcomes for children are good but worry about currently unknown longer term effects.

chalsall 2021-04-07 20:38

Finally...
 
I'm scheduled for tomorrow morning. Happy! :chalsall:

Batalov 2021-04-07 21:37

...April's first bloom!
:tu:

gd_barnes 2021-04-08 06:00

Got my first one on April 5th. Second one is scheduled for May 3rd. :smile:

chalsall 2021-04-08 18:45

[QUOTE=chalsall;575438]I'm scheduled for tomorrow morning.[/QUOTE]

Three hours in a very chaotic queue (Bajans don't do Time and Motion studies well), but I'm now "jabbed"! :tu:

Batalov 2021-04-08 18:55

[QUOTE=frmky;575396]My actual kid is my biggest concern now. All of the adults in my immediate family have had both shots. I know outcomes for children are good but worry about currently unknown longer term effects.[/QUOTE]
If under 16, then there is a path of clinical trial (I know some friends who just started; granted, this is a 50-50% placebo* thing); and if above 16, then soon, very soon, -- on the 15th, I believe. If you were not 2hrs away on a train, I could recommend our site. I sent our local folks the links that hospital gives out to us (empoyees) and at our site, lines are ridiculously short. I took my wife and kids there; it was much better than our infamous baseball park site, where my daughter went (that visit was 2-3 hours, blech.)
___
* Actually, I have seen trials with a 67-33% placebo split design. Could be one of those.

Xyzzy 2021-04-09 12:41

1 Attachment(s)
[COLOR=White].[/COLOR]

MattcAnderson 2021-04-11 01:23

Received my first Covid19 dose in March 2021. Second dose scheduled for April.

Matt

R. Gerbicz 2021-04-19 10:29

Today got the first dose of AstraZeneca.
Need 12 weeks for the 2nd dose.

storm5510 2021-04-23 22:26

I received my 2nd Moderna dose on April 12. Other than a sore arm, no issues at all. They said two weeks from that point for 95% protection.

Xyzzy 2021-04-27 12:35

[QUOTE]Many Americans want to know, 'What's in it for me?'[/QUOTE][URL]https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/27/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html[/URL]

:snapoutofit:

xilman 2021-04-27 16:29

SWMBO now fully vaccinated.


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