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-   -   [Mission Accomplished] Let's finish primality verification through Mp#48*, M(57 885 161) (https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=26591)

greenskull 2021-10-03 16:19

[QUOTE=retina;589294]I think the exponent has turned out to make a Mersenne prime, and there is a huge conspiracy among the elites to suppress the knowledge until they think the rest of the world can handle it without panic. :evil:

All the talk about power failures, or connection issues are just a ruse to throw us off the scent, right?

:razz:[/QUOTE]
Why are you revealing all the secrets?

Prime95 2021-10-03 18:52

[QUOTE=greenskull;589262]
But it increases the validity of my forecast for November 16th.
And interference with the natural course of events makes the game unfair.[/QUOTE]

If you or Ken were to poach that would be unfair in your entertaining prediction game. Historically speaking, it is likely one or two users have already noticed the stalled exponent are busily poaching as we converse.

greenskull 2021-10-03 19:40

[QUOTE=Prime95;589317]If you or Ken were to poach that would be unfair in your entertaining prediction game. Historically speaking, it is likely one or two users have already noticed the stalled exponent are busily poaching as we converse.[/QUOTE]

Please no!

kriesel 2021-10-03 20:16

1 Attachment(s)
[QUOTE=Prime95;589317]If you or Ken were to poach[/QUOTE]greenskull has no motivation to poach. Getting an assignment under another alias and stalling it, or getting such deceptive help from a friend, would help move the milestone toward his prediction of 22 November or revised to 16 November. Another expiration/assignment cycle would be needed to reach them.
If [M]57773081[/M] expires, gets reassigned, and runs to completion in the usual Cat0 ~7 days, that would be ~2021-10-30. If it's resumed, or poached, it could be completed any day now. George knows, but some others may not realize, that such a run is ~7 hours on a Radeon VII.

[QUOTE=greenskull;589276]It seems to me that this is a mortal sin.[/QUOTE]Not likely. Unless you know of skullduggery that we don't. Assignments can be and have been transferred from one participant to another by mutual agreement. [URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortal_sin[/URL]

[QUOTE=greenskull;589288]I consider it unacceptable to break or change the rules during the game, especially when the bets are made.[/QUOTE]What game, what bets? You stated you did not bet a kidney.

For the 56M milestone, it went from 21 left to 0 in 12 days. For Mp#48*, it was at 21 left at ~2021-09-19. By that measure, the milestone is overdue (2021-10-01). To have one or two stall out near the finish line is unusual.

greenskull 2021-10-03 20:21

There are an infinite number of unverified exponents.
The sky will not fall to the ground if you choose any of them that are free.

We are cultured civilized people with ethical principles. Why behave like cavemen, eating each other for handful of shells?

Uncwilly 2021-10-04 06:07

If I were to poach the exponent, I might wait to turn in the results until the date exactly between the 2 predictions.....

greenskull 2021-10-04 09:17

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;589359]If I were to poach the exponent, I might wait to turn in the results until the date exactly between the 2 predictions.....[/QUOTE]
Do not do this pls :)
If you are itching to manipulate it, then try to hit exactly on November 16.

kriesel 2021-10-04 12:26

1
 
3 Attachment(s)
[QUOTE=Uncwilly;589359]I might wait to turn in the results until the date exactly between the 2 predictions.....[/QUOTE]Waiting longer than you might usually, would be rigging the outcome. (I suppose that could apply to the rest of us too...)

Now only AndersM's assignment on [M]57773081[/M] remains, which is still stalled at 26%(since 2021-09-27 last update a week ago).

From [URL]https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/:[/URL]
[B]Progress toward next GIMPS milestones [I](last updated 2021-10-04 12:15:09 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)[/I][/B]

[LIST][*] All exponents below [COLOR=blue]57 773 081[/COLOR] have been tested and verified.[*] All exponents below [COLOR=blue]104 815 069[/COLOR] have been tested at least once.[*] Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 105 million: [URL="https://www.mersenne.org/assignments/?exp_lo=104815069&exp_hi=105000000&execm=1&exp1=1&extf=1&exdchk=1&excert=1"]2[/URL][*] Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 106 million: [URL="https://www.mersenne.org/assignments/?exp_lo=104815069&exp_hi=106000000&execm=1&exp1=1&extf=1&exdchk=1&excert=1"]73[/URL][*] Countdown to verifying all tests below M(57 885 161): [URL="https://www.mersenne.org/assignments/?exp_lo=57773081&exp_hi=57885161&execm=1&exp1=1&extf=1&exfirst=1"]1[/URL][*] Countdown to verifying all tests below 58 million: [URL="https://www.mersenne.org/assignments/?exp_lo=57773081&exp_hi=58000000&execm=1&exp1=1&extf=1&exfirst=1&excert=1"]3[/URL][*] Countdown to verifying all tests below 59 million: [URL="https://www.mersenne.org/assignments/?exp_lo=57773081&exp_hi=59000000&execm=1&exp1=1&extf=1&exfirst=1&excert=1"]1 624[/URL] [COLOR=black](994 available)[/COLOR][*] Countdown to verifying all tests below M(74 207 281): [COLOR=blue]269 225[/COLOR][*] Countdown to verifying all tests below M(77 232 917): [COLOR=blue]324 747[/COLOR][*] Countdown to verifying all tests below M(82 589 933): [COLOR=blue]423 450[/COLOR][/LIST]

kriesel 2021-10-06 08:56

zero, milestone reached
 
4 Attachment(s)
1 LL and 1 PRP on [M]57773081[/M]. Server called it done. Milestone reached.
So just for good measure, I subsequently reported in an LLDC run earlier, that confirmed Sven Laubner's LL res64.
M[M]57885161 [/M]is confirmed as the 48th Mersenne prime.

On to [URL="https://www.mersenne.org/report_exponent/?exp_lo=74207281&exp_hi=&full=1"]Mp#49*[/URL]. That will take a while.

greenskull 2021-10-06 09:06

Oh, no!
The game was not fair :evil: But it was excitingly interesting :banana:

What are the timing assumptions for the next exponent: 74,207,281?

firejuggler 2021-10-06 09:15

First post on march with 20k test left.
so that's about 6 month.
number of test left to MP#49 is around 270 k
Thats 13.5 * 6month... lets add a bit of time because tests take longer.. and we're looking at 7 or 8 years.


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