What we have at the moment:

[ATTACH]25784[/ATTACH]

Probably kriesel's forecast will be closer to the fact than mine. But it is not exactly :)

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[QUOTE=greenskull;588889]Probably kriesel's forecast will be closer to the fact than mine. But it is not exactly[/QUOTE]Did anyone claim to be able to project the conclusion exactly? Given the quantizations of lowest exponent completed, number of exponents remaining, exponent ETAs, client reporting time interval, server view of state of completion of each exponent, and perhaps more, mathematical fits to the historical data, of linear equations that are analog models, will necessarily be inexact representations.

Transition from cat2 systems' assignments expiring to cat0 systems for reassigned exponents creates a substantial increase in slope of the number of remaining exponents versus time. A model that forces overall linear extrapolation on the nonlinear behavior inherent in the assignment rules does not represent that well.

Currently it looks like ~2021-10-02 conclusion with Syntony's assignment, although it could come sooner.

Last update.

[ATTACH]25788[/ATTACH]

All hope for the slow computer OldQC of the user GrunwalderGIMP and Syntony's Kilderkin that process the data a teaspoon per hour :)

[QUOTE=kriesel;588895]Currently it looks like ~2021-10-02 conclusion with Syntony's assignment, although it could come sooner.[/QUOTE]That month looks like it will have the 58M DC and 105M FTC milestones too. There are a few assignments in the 105-106 interval that [B][U]will[/U][/B] expire after October. George has a hold out too. Otherwise it [I]would[/I] be favourable for meeting the 106M milestone in October.

[QUOTE=greenskull;588896]Last update.

[ATTACH]25788[/ATTACH]

All hope for the slow computer OldQC of the user GrunwalderGIMP and Syntony's Kilderkin that process the data a teaspoon per hour :)[/QUOTE]

Thanks for making these graphs. I appreciate seeing the data presented this way.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;588897]George has a hold out too. [/QUOTE]

Thanks. The gpuowl python script thought the result was uploaded successfully. Resubmitted it manually.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;588897]That month looks like it will have the 58M DC and 105M FTC milestones too.[/QUOTE]Ben Delo has several nearing expiration with substantial progress made and no updates in nearly a month, in the 105M-[URL="https://www.mersenne.org/assignments/?exp_lo=104815069&exp_hi=106000000&execm=1&exp1=1&extf=1&exdchk=1&excert=1"]106M[/URL] range. It would be unfortunate for all that work to be lost.

[QUOTE=kriesel;588928]Ben Delo has several nearing expiration with substantial progress made and no updates in nearly a month, in the 105M-[URL="https://www.mersenne.org/assignments/?exp_lo=104815069&exp_hi=106000000&execm=1&exp1=1&extf=1&exdchk=1&excert=1"]106M[/URL] range. It would be unfortunate for all that work to be lost.[/QUOTE]

If they aren't completed within a couple days after they start processing, his exponents generally expire out. There's any of a number of possible reasons for it. I imagine sometimes he has something else he needs to direct some portion of his fleet of machines to do.

You can find plenty of cases where his exponent expired out then he picked it up for assignment again and 2nd time around processed it to completion.

Hi people.

Which exponents are left to verify M48?

I can help in double-checking.

There are only three exponents left and those are all already assigned and being worked on, but you can of course help with verifying M49. :smile:

[QUOTE=slandrum;588957]You can find plenty of cases where his exponent expired out then he picked it up for assignment again and 2nd time around processed it to completion.[/QUOTE]Since Ben alone accounts for ~half of primality tests completed, Ben's scripts taking a second crack at the same exponent after an expiration is a coin toss. But the lost progress of the first expired attempt is still a regrettable loss.