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-   -   Predict M47 (https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=10655)

Mini-Geek 2008-09-17 20:20

[quote=philmoore;142939]1) Purely a statistical deviation.[/quote]
This one, IMHO. Assuming (the unproven statement that...) Mersenne primes are infinite (or that they're finite but the last one is very large), you'll eventually run into a group that are tightly bunched beyond normal statistical chance.

T.Rex 2008-09-17 21:41

[QUOTE=nngs;142797]I use a [URL="http://www.ittvis.com/ProductServices/IDL.aspx"]IDL[/URL] route called LMFIT. [/QUOTE]Sems that this is not a free tool... I have some Math tool on my PC. I'll see if it can help.
[QUOTE]If I use A+B*n only (which will give me B=0.561...), the residuals show a sinusoidal pattern. So I add a sine term in my guess function.[/QUOTE]Nice. Bob (Silverman) should say that it is not Math, but maybe you should send an email to Chris Caldwell or to Mr Wagstaff. Why not. Though this Poisson' process does not really help to find the next Mersenne, it is interesting to do some guesses. It's like doing Physic: you observe phenomenons, you find a law that seems to be in accordance with the data, and then you analyse the consequences of the law, and search if it can help to guess other things, and if it continues to represent the reality...
Good !
Tony

sylvester 2008-09-18 04:48

[QUOTE=T.Rex;142963]Sems that this is not a free tool...[/QUOTE]

From the name LMFIT one can make a guess that this was some implementation of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Perhaps that will make your search easier.

Uncwilly 2008-10-09 20:16

[code]petrw1 29,000,000 11/1/2009
ixfd64 43,112,609 12/1/2008
Primeinator 47,300,000 10/1/2009
Raman 50,000,000 3/1/2009 <50mil or w/in next 6-9 mon
MiniGeek 50,000,000 9/1/2009
uigrad 51,500,000 8/1/2009
ATH 52,300,000 11/1/2009
davieddy 60,000,000 1/1/2012
MoooMoo 75,860,000 5/1/2013
nngs 90,087,850
henryzz 8/31/2009
ET 12/20/2012
Yzzyx 1/19/2038
Bob Silverman pointless[/code]

XYYXF 2008-10-11 13:11

88M, Nov 2011.

Damian 2008-10-11 19:40

45M, next week.

davieddy 2008-10-13 14:47

[quote=Damian;145136]45M, next week.[/quote]
Nobody has returned a 44M test yet, so I don't see
who will discover 45M this week:smile:

retina 2008-10-13 14:52

[QUOTE=davieddy;145271]Nobody has returned a 44M test yet, so I don't see
who will discover 45M this week:smile:[/QUOTE]Perhaps Damian meant M45 next week. As in, M47 will actually be the current M45 because two more primes less than the current M45 will be discovered next week.

davieddy 2008-10-13 15:12

[quote=retina;145273]Perhaps Damian meant M45 next week. As in, M47 will actually be the current M45 because two more primes less than the current M45 will be discovered next week.[/quote]
You mean a dyslexic confusion between 45M and M45?

Edit: No. On re-reading you were proposing an even more
bizarre explanation:)

retina 2008-10-13 15:35

[QUOTE=davieddy;145274]You mean a dyslexic confusion between 45M and M45?[/QUOTE]Could be dyslexia, or just a typo.[QUOTE=davieddy;145274]Edit: No. On re-reading you were proposing an even more
bizarre explanation:)[/QUOTE]If it is something bizarre then that is definitely what I meant :wink:

ATH 2008-10-14 11:22

[QUOTE=davieddy;145271]Nobody has returned a 44M test yet, so I don't see
who will discover 45M this week:smile:[/QUOTE]

I got 46M exponent and I use "First time test"-option.


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