mersenneforum.org

mersenneforum.org (https://www.mersenneforum.org/index.php)
-   Lounge (https://www.mersenneforum.org/forumdisplay.php?f=7)
-   -   Miscellany about COVID (https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=25153)

a1call 2020-01-29 19:42

Miscellany about COVID
 
The article is somewhat too detailed for my time, but:

[QUOTE]Models are only as good as the assumptions on which they are based. If a model makes predictions which are out of line with observed results and the mathematics is correct, the initial assumptions must change to make the model useful.[/QUOTE][URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infectious_disease[/URL]

In regards to the [B]CoronaVirus[/B]:

* (I assume that,) it is assumed that the virus can only be spread from animals to humans or from humans to other humans

* Earlier on during the outbreak there were News-Articles from China that some people in the epicenter of the outbreak had contracted the disease without having any contact with people from the market where the disease is thought to have initiated

* There are now consensuses among Chinese-Researchers that the disease can be transmitted asymptomatically by carriers which have no symptoms

** This assumption was doubted by other researchers in the beginning and now is expressed as the transmission is much more likely by symptomatic carriers than asymptomatic ones

* I find it short-sighted not to consider that the virus may procreate in the environment without the help of (Macro)-animal or human carriers. It is known that the flu viruses can persist on inanimate objects for some time and there may just be other means (perhaps other microorganisms) that may help [URL="https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/336850/is-reprocreate-a-word"]re-procreation[/URL] of viruses.

** This might explain the explosive spread of flu viruses where symphonic carriers have been ruled out

*Assuming an incubation period of 14 days:

**Theoretically speaking if all the people avoid close contact for just 15 days then the carriers could be recognized and the epidemic could be eradicated

**Theoretically speaking if all the people would live in close contact in groups numbering a maximum of 2 people avoiding close contact for just 30 days would be sufficient to eradicate the epidemic

** ...
..
**Theoretically speaking if all the people would live in close contact in groups numbering a maximum of n people avoiding close contact for just n.(14+1) days would be sufficient to eradicate the epidemic

Just my 2 cents:smile:

a1call 2020-01-29 22:34

[QUOTE]
Based on these results, the authors said the 2019-nCoV likely originated in bats. However, no bats were sold at the Huanan seafood market, which suggests that another yet-to-be-identified animal acted as a steppingstone of sorts to transmit the virus to humans.
...

A previous study suggested snakes, which were sold at the Huanan seafood market, as a possible source of 2019-nCoV. However, some experts have criticized the study, saying it's unclear if coronaviruses can infect snakes.
[/QUOTE]

[url]https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-origin-bats.html[/url]

nomead 2020-01-30 00:19

[QUOTE=a1call;536199]
* Earlier on during the outbreak there were News-Articles from China that some people in the epicenter of the outbreak had contracted the disease without having any contact with people from the market where the disease is thought to have initiated

* There are now consensuses among Chinese-Researchers that the disease can be transmitted asymptomatically by carriers which have no symptoms
[/QUOTE]
Asymptomatic spreading is very much a thing. For example, the four confirmed cases in Germany. A person came from China for a couple days of training at a car parts supplier. She only started feeling ill while on the return flight to China, and upon arrival was tested and confirmed to have the virus. Before the trip she had recently visited her parents in Wuhan, but no information on whether they were ill at that point. But a few days after that training session, one German person (who had attended the same training session) started feeling ill, and was confirmed to have the virus as well. Then the next day three more persons were confirmed to have the virus. They didn't attend the training, but were coworkers in close contact with that first infected person.

Timeline:
Jan 21 - training session
Jan 23 - return flight (and Chinese woman feeling ill)
Jan 27 - First German case, feeling ill and case confirmed
Jan 28 - Three more cases confirmed

So it is fast and effective, at least in those cases. A couple references:
[URL="https://www.thelocal.de/20200128/first-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-germany-bavarian-health-ministry"]https://www.thelocal.de/20200128/first-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-germany-bavarian-health-ministry[/URL]
[URL="https://www.thelocal.de/20200128/number-of-german-coronavirus-patients-jumps-to-four"]https://www.thelocal.de/20200128/number-of-german-coronavirus-patients-jumps-to-four[/URL]

Dr Sardonicus 2020-01-30 00:45

[QUOTE=nomead;536216]Asymptomatic spreading is very much a thing.
<snip>[/QUOTE]This brings to mind a story I read many years ago, in an old (1946) SF anthology, [u]Adventures in Time and Space[/u] (Editors: Raymond J. Healy and J. Francis McComas):

[i]Seeds of the Dusk[/i] (Novelette) by Raymond Z. Gallun
First published in [i][b]Astounding Science-Fiction[/b][/i], June 1938

CRGreathouse 2020-01-30 00:48

[QUOTE=a1call;536199]* There are now consensuses among Chinese-Researchers that the disease can be transmitted asymptomatically by carriers which have no symptoms[/QUOTE]

Chinese researchers say there are asymptomatic carriers; US researchers have not been able to verify this. I would bet a large amount of money that the Chinese researchers are correct.

[QUOTE=a1call;536199]** This assumption was doubted by other researchers in the beginning and now is expressed as the transmission is much more likely by symptomatic carriers than asymptomatic ones[/QUOTE]

Probably.

[QUOTE=a1call;536199]* I find it short-sighted not to consider that the virus may procreate in the environment without the help of (Macro)-animal or human carriers.[/QUOTE]

Definitely not.

[QUOTE=a1call;536199]It is known that the flu viruses can persist on inanimate objects for some time and there may just be other means (perhaps other microorganisms) that may help [URL="https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/336850/is-reprocreate-a-word"]re-procreation[/URL] of viruses.[/QUOTE]

It's a freaking RNA virus. It can barely survive outside a body at all.

[QUOTE=a1call;536199]*Assuming an incubation period of 14 days:[/QUOTE]

Too long. Initial estimates were 2-14 days, true, but good data suggests around 5 days now. No one seriously thinks it's longer than a week.

[QUOTE=a1call;536199]**Theoretically speaking if all the people avoid close contact for just 15 days then the carriers could be recognized and the epidemic could be eradicated[/QUOTE]

Yes.

[QUOTE=a1call;536199]**Theoretically speaking if all the people would live in close contact in groups numbering a maximum of 2 people avoiding close contact for just 30 days would be sufficient to eradicate the epidemic[/QUOTE]

No, because a person could be sick for more than 25 days (plus the incubation period of ~5 days).

a1call 2020-01-30 00:54

There YouTube tag didn't work so here is what I was looking to:
[url]https://youtu.be/x5UY8Xrg6ec[/url]

a1call 2020-01-30 01:23

[QUOTE]

Most flu viruses can live one to two days on nonporous surfaces, and 8 to 12 hours on porous surfaces. But a 2006 study found that avian influenza seemed particularly hardy, surviving as long as six days on some surfaces.
[/QUOTE]

Source:
[url]https://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/15/health/15real.html[/url]

While I agree that snakes are not likely to suffer from flu, I still think that single cell organisms with DNA should not necessarily be ruled out as virus replicators.
More microbes are likely present in an uncapped body of water than the entire population of China.

ETA

[QUOTE]
Even bacteria can get a virus! The viruses that infect bacteria are called bacteriophages, and certain bacteriophages have been studied in detail in the lab (making them some of the viruses we understand best).

[/QUOTE]


[url]https://www.khanacademy.org/science/biology/biology-of-viruses/virus-biology/a/bacteriophages[/url]

ETA Ii For the record & FWIW from the same paper:

[QUOTE]


Bacteriophages attack only their host bacteria, not human cells, so they are potentially good candidates to treat bacterial diseases in humans.

[/QUOTE]

CRGreathouse 2020-01-30 02:35

[QUOTE=a1call;536224]While I agree that snakes are not likely to suffer from flu, I still think that single cell organisms with DNA should not necessarily be ruled out as virus replicators.[/QUOTE]

I want you to stop and think this through. Of course single-celled organisms can be used by certain viruses to replicate themselves (bacteriophages, as you mention, are a common example). But what made you say that snakes are unlikely to suffer from the flu? Probably that they're too different from us so that the influenza virus can't replicate in snakes -- perhaps because they're poikilotherms (variable body temperature) or because of some other major difference between snakes and humans. But snakes are very similar to humans compared to how radically different humans and snakes are to bacteria. Bacteria have cell walls, they have microcompartments instead of organelles, etc. Since they don't have mitochondria, it's not even clear to me how compatible their metabolisms are with ours. And when you're hijacking a cell, the details -- and especially the ribosomes -- matter, and since these differ, it seems like a big problem for them to go back and forth.

I don't want to say it's impossible, but it would be a very hard feat.

CRGreathouse 2020-01-30 02:39

[QUOTE=a1call;536224]ETA Ii For the record & FWIW from the same paper:[quote]Bacteriophages attack only their host bacteria, not human cells, so they are potentially good candidates to treat bacterial diseases in humans.[/quote][/QUOTE]

This is called "phage therapy" if you want to learn more. It was more popular in the past, and it's making a comeback as antimicrobial resistance is becoming a bigger issue. It's a very surgical approach, no real side effects (unlike antibiotics, which can kill a lot more than the targeted organism), but it can take a lot of work and money to develop a therapy.

a1call 2020-01-30 03:29

Thanks for the info and the replies Mr Greathouse.

----------

There is a lot of news and articles about surgical masks and pointers that they are unnecessary, they are ineffective/slightly-effective, in short supply....
I find it surprising that there is no news about there being a run on biohazard masks (which I assume are more effective than surgical masks). Shouldn't there be an effort to mass produce those rather than 3M lose fitting surgical masks?

pinhodecarlos 2020-01-30 20:14

“ Coronavirus outbreak declared global public health emergency” by WHO.

Dr Sardonicus 2020-01-30 21:43

A recent newspaper article about phage therapy may be found [url=http://www.startribune.com/antibiotics-failed-and-minnesota-man-faced-loss-of-leg-then-he-turned-to-an-old-remedy-that-worked/566462062/]here[/url].

In other virus outbreak news, [url=https://apnews.com/9713a99abb7a582351e09e1711344c6c]US reports 1st case of person-to-person spread of new virus[/url].

a1call 2020-01-30 23:45

[QUOTE=pinhodecarlos;536258]“ Coronavirus outbreak declared global public health emergency” by WHO.[/QUOTE]
Official Declaration:

[url]https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov[/url])

a1call 2020-01-30 23:56

For what it's worth the death rate graph seems no where near stabilizing:
[url]https://www.google.ca/amp/s/futurism.com/coronavirus-death-toll-graph/amp[/url]
The latest number I can find is 217 which is 28% higher than the 170 in the above graph.

But to keep things in perspective it is miniscule compared to the 7.7 G population of the world or even the millions in the epicenter city.

nomead 2020-01-31 11:35

This is a rather good, but simple lin-log graph:
[URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Log-linear_plot_of_coronovirus_cases_with_linear_regressions.png"]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Log-linear_plot_of_coronovirus_cases_with_linear_regressions.png[/URL]

pinhodecarlos 2020-01-31 17:09

2019-nCoV Global Cases (by Johns Hopkins CSSE)


[url]https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6[/url]

nomead 2020-01-31 20:09

[URL="https://ncov.r6.no/"]https://ncov.r6.no/[/URL]

Time series graph of 2019-nCoV vs. SARS 2003 vs. Swine Flu 2009, switchable between 45-day and 100-day plots, and linear/log scale for the y-axis. I presume it's updated once a day, as are the other data souces thus far.

ewmayer 2020-01-31 20:24

[QUOTE=a1call;536274]But to keep things in perspective it is miniscule compared to the 7.7 G population of the world or even the millions in the epicenter city.[/QUOTE]

To use an alternate perspective I deployed in the Science News thread discussion about the Coronavirus epidemic, the half-dozen atoms fissioned by the implosion-triggered neutron source at the heart of the fission core of a nuclear bomb is miniscule compared to the roughly 2^85 atoms of U235 or Pu239 contained in the core. Nonetheless, within a few microseconds a significant fraction of the 2^85 atoms have fissioned, resulting in a nuclear blast which can level a city. The branching ratios for both the fission chain reaction and the Coronavirus spreading appear to be similar, between 2 and 3. The crucial question is, will the usual obstacles to regional epidemics turning into global pandemics - geographic/climate barriers, viral mutation to less-harmful strain, emergency public health measures, crach-course-developed vaccines - work in the present case? The rapidity with which the virus spread across all of China and now elsewhere is deeply worrisome.

And a must-read re. the race against the clock by scientists in China which identified the novel-human-pathogen aspect of the outbreak, and the ensuing "what the government did with this information":

[url=http://chinamediaproject.org/2020/01/27/dramatic-actions/]The Truth About "Dramatic Action"[/url] | China Media Project
[quote]The period from December 8 to December 31 was a crucial 23-day period. During this time, scientists in China were not in fact idle, but raced against the clock trying to trace the virus – and their performance was remarkable. Meng Xin (孟昕), a researcher at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, has since disclosed:

So originally they [NOTE: Meng is referring here to the government] had one ace card in their hand. My colleagues worked hard through the night, and within one week had managed to: successfully isolate the disease, sequence the coronavirus genome (测完了序列), and confirmed the origin of the disease. In less than two weeks, they had developed test reagents and had distributed them to provincial CDCs, and they had reviewed anywhere from dozens to hundreds of specimens from Wuhan (the specific number is still unknown), actions that would earn unanimous praise from international colleagues and the World Health Organization, and that would save precious time in the prevention and control of the epidemic.

Meng is referring here specifically to the actions taken by scientists in Beijing. But Shanghai scientists were not far behind. According to a report in Health News (健康报), the official publication of China’s National Health Commission, the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center (上海市公共卫生临床中心) had isolated a new strain of coronavirus by January 5, within just 10 days of its receiving samples from patients in Wuhan on December 26, and scientists at the center had obtained the entire genome sequence.

On January 11, on the basis of the latest research developments in Beijing and Shanghai, China officially confirmed that this new coronavirus was the pathogen causing the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic, and it shared the new coronavirus gene sequence information with the WHO.

But while the Chinese authorities informed the World Health Organization about these developments at the earliest opportunity, they did not inform their own people...[/quote]

a1call 2020-01-31 21:45

[QUOTE=nomead;536331][URL="https://ncov.r6.no/"]https://ncov.r6.no/[/URL]

Time series graph of 2019-nCoV vs. SARS 2003 vs. Swine Flu 2009, switchable between 45-day and 100-day plots, and linear/log scale for the y-axis. I presume it's updated once a day, as are the other data souces thus far.[/QUOTE]
As awful as that "Deaths" graph looks, there seems to be a consensus among some experts and other intelligent people that a more deadly virus will have to stabilise faster since it will destroy it's means of propagation more effectively.

a1call 2020-02-01 01:42

Newscientist article from from January 29:

[url]https://www.newscientist.com/article/2231864-new-coronavirus-looks-set-to-cause-a-pandemic-how-do-we-control-it/[/url]

richs 2020-02-01 05:18

Interesting article: [URL="https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-contains-hiv-insertions-stoking-fears-over-artificially-created-bioweapon"]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-contains-hiv-insertions-stoking-fears-over-artificially-created-bioweapon[/URL]

LaurV 2020-02-01 06:59

1 Attachment(s)
.
[ATTACH]21705[/ATTACH]

(we guess we haz to open a condoms shop and get rich..)

Like [URL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NUJddhz5NE"]Ellen used to say[/URL], boneheads...

ewmayer 2020-02-01 21:34

[QUOTE=LaurV;536363].
[ATTACH]21705[/ATTACH]

(we guess we haz to open a condoms shop and get rich..)

Like [URL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NUJddhz5NE"]Ellen used to say[/URL], boneheads...[/QUOTE]
Note: per the flyer, unprotected sex with truly wild, non-native animals appears to be OK, though, so you may just have to do your hiking farther afield in order to find safe invasive-species dating prospects which fit your wild-n-crazy latex-free lifestyle. :)

Dr Sardonicus 2020-02-02 01:46

[QUOTE=LaurV;536363].
[ATTACH]21705[/ATTACH]

(we guess we haz to open a condoms shop and get rich..)

Like [URL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NUJddhz5NE"]Ellen used to say[/URL], boneheads...[/QUOTE]
If this was an English translation of a health warning in a non-English-speaking country, I could entertain the notion of "sex" being a translation oopsadaisy for "contact" or some such. But [i]Australia[/i]? It's a bit hard to explain, short of mischief.

Hmm, [i]you[/i] were just in Australia, weren't you? :devil:

LaurV 2020-02-02 07:17

Well... technically, if it is not native, then it is feral... Actually, that is a good question, are the rabbits, for example, feral? Or the foxes? They were never "domesticated" stuff, they were introduced from the start like wild animals, to pray on some local (or introduced, in case of foxes) species, but on the other hand, once humans took them under their "wings", they are feral, even if they escaped and went wild, or were released deliberately.

To reply to Dr.S, yes, we were there, where we could only see Chinese/Asian and Indian/Indonesian people everywhere, and in all social hierarchy, so what you say in the other part of your post, about "lost in translation" may be totally true... But it is funny anyhow.

Dr Sardonicus 2020-02-02 14:13

The term "native" would include all indigenous wildlife -- kangaroos, koalas, dingoes, etc.

Usually, "feral" means something like "a captive or domesticated species gone wild." I suppose that would include the camels and house cats running around the countryside.

However, introduced ("alien") non-domesticated, non-captive animal species -- rabbits, foxes, mice, etc -- do not appear to fall under any of the warned categories. (My understanding is, the rabbits, like the foxes, were introduced "for sport" rather than as captive animals.)

I think the warning would be clearer (though still extremely comical and nonsensical) if all the modifiers of the word "animals" were dropped.

My [strike]febrile[/strike] fertile imagination has concocted another possible scenario for its genesis: hasty editing. Things would at least make sense if the last warning were replaced by two:
[list][*]Avoid unprotected sex[/list][list][*]Avoid contact with [domesticated, feral, or native] animals[/list]
I can just see it. The warning is all ready, then some suit says, "You have to shorten the list!"

a1call 2020-02-03 01:47

Canadian Health Minister States that asymptomatic people do not transmit the virus.

[url]https://globalnews.ca/video/rd/e17a62ee-449f-11ea-aa37-0242ac110003/?jwsource=em[/url]

Makes you kind of proud to be a Canadian and not to give in to unjustified panic like most of the rest of the world.:smile:

ewmayer 2020-02-03 19:25

[QUOTE=a1call;536533]Canadian Health Minister States that asymptomatic people do not transmit the virus.

[url]https://globalnews.ca/video/rd/e17a62ee-449f-11ea-aa37-0242ac110003/?jwsource=em[/url]

Makes you kind of proud to be a Canadian and not to give in to unjustified panic like most of the rest of the world.:smile:[/QUOTE]

And the Canadian Health Minister has how many Canadian cases on which to base this sweeping claim?

Here the latest 2019-nCoV news roundup over on NC, which is not known for being a sky-is-falling kind of blog:

[url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/02/china-coronavirus-watch-transmission-methods-travel-potential-mutation-aids-connection-debunked.html]China Coronavirus Watch: Transmission Methods, Travel, Potential Mutation, AIDS Connection Debunked[/url] | naked capitalism

I draw your attention to 4 snippets - first from the "Once again, from Bloomberg" article:
[quote]The novel coronavirus was detected in the loose stool of the first U.S. case — a finding that hasn’t featured among case reports from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak. However, that doesn’t surprise scientists who have studied coronaviruses, nor doctors familiar with the bug that caused SARS.

Squat latrines, common in China, lacking covers and hands that aren’t washed thoroughly with soap and water after visiting the bathroom could be a source of virus transmission, said [John Nicholls, a clinical professor of pathology at the University of Hong Kong], who was part of the research team that isolated and characterized the SARS virus.

A virus-laden aerosol plume emanating from a SARS patient with diarrhea was implicated in possibly hundreds of cases at Hong Kong’s Amoy Gardens housing complex in 2003. That led the city’s researchers to understand the importance of the virus’s spread through the gastrointestinal tract, and to recognize both the limitation of face masks and importance of cleanliness and hygiene, Nicholls said.[/quote]
So there is a wide range with respect to 'symptomatic' - absent other clear symptoms, most people would not consider a bout of diarrhea as 'symptomatic' of something. Second, transmission doesn't get much more asymptomatic than via an inanimate surface - this from the American Society for Microbiology "fomites" paper linked/excerpted:
[quote]Virus spread by person-to-person contact can be interrupted with isolation of the viral carrier. Yet, isolation may prove to be impractical or difficult if there are many people or if the source of infection is unknown (69). Consequently, interrupting disease spread via indoor fomites is one of the more practical methods for limiting or preventing enteric and respiratory viral infections.

A majority of respiratory viruses are enveloped (parainfluenza virus, influenza virus, RSV, and coronavirus) and survive on surfaces from hours to days….

Studies have demonstrated that viral transfer from hands to surrounding surfaces is possible in 7 out of 10 viruses reviewed.[/quote]
Third, here is the [i]New England Journal of Medicine[/i] (a reader posted this in the comments section of the above NC article) on the [url=https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191]first confirmed U.S. case[/url] of 2019-nCoV:
[quote]...We report the first case of 2019-nCoV infection confirmed in the United States and describe the identification, diagnosis, clinical course, and management of the case, including the patient’s initial mild symptoms at presentation with progression to pneumonia on day 9 of illness...[/quote]
So not completely asymptomatic, but "initial mild symptoms", the kind that don't cause people to self-isolate or go to hospital. Note the above does not say how the patient contracted the virus - that is typically difficult or impossible to do for any individual case - but presumably the patient was infective during the "initial mild symptoms" phase.

And lastly, from the "one bioinformatics research had to say" about the now-withdrawn bioRxiv manuscript which essentially claimed this had to be an engineered virus, feeding into a popular conspriacy theory making the rounds:
[quote][2019-nCoV's] symptom profile, degree of transmissibility, severity, mortality rate, duration, incubation and latent period, ability to jump from animals to humans, and [b]ability to transmit asymptomatically and by skin contact are all within the precedents established by other human coronaviruses.[/b][/quote]

Dr Sardonicus 2020-02-03 21:32

[QUOTE=ewmayer;536580]<snip>
Third, here is the [i]New England Journal of Medicine[/i] (a reader posted this in the comments section of the above NC article) on the [url=https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191]first confirmed U.S. case[/url] of 2019-nCoV:

So not completely asymptomatic, but "initial mild symptoms", the kind that don't cause people to self-isolate or go to hospital.
<snip>[/QUOTE]
[url=https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-study/index.html]This CNN story[/url] has a [url=https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468]link[/url] to another article in NEJM that bears directly on the subject:
[quote](CNN)The nation's top infectious disease doctor says [url=https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?query=featured_home]a new study published Thursday night[/url] shows people can spread the Wuhan coronavirus before symptoms set in.

German researchers found that the virus was transmitted by people without symptoms in five instances in one cluster of people: from a parent to a daughter; from that daughter to two colleagues; and from one of those colleagues to two other coworkers.

"There's no doubt after reading this paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "This study lays the question to rest."[/quote]

a1call 2020-02-03 23:30

[QUOTE]

Study claiming new coronavirus can be transmitted by people without symptoms was flawed

According to people familiar with the call, she felt tired, suffered from muscle pain, and took paracetamol, a fever-lowering medication. (An RKI spokesperson would only confirm to Science that the woman had symptoms.)

[/QUOTE]

[url]https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong[/url]

ATH 2020-02-03 23:52

2 Attachment(s)
Daily reports on the China CDC site:
[url]http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm[/url]

I made 2 charts from the data.

kladner 2020-02-04 00:24

[QUOTE=ATH;536604]Daily reports on the China CDC site:
[URL]http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm[/URL]

I made 2 charts from the data.[/QUOTE]
So Recoveries overtook Deaths just yesterday, Feb 2. I guess that bespeaks initial lack of detection and treatment, leaving some patients fatally unsupported. It's good to see that countermeasures seem to be taking hold.

a1call 2020-02-04 00:35

More graphs added to an earlier posted link:

[url]https://ncov.r6.no[/url]

ewmayer 2020-02-04 02:56

[QUOTE=ATH;536604]Daily reports on the China CDC site:
[url]http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm[/url]

I made 2 charts from the data.[/QUOTE]

Official figures out of China are to be taken with a huge grain of salt, especially any related to things that might cast the leadership of the CCP in a negative light.

Dr Sardonicus 2020-02-04 03:19

[QUOTE=kladner;536607]So Recoveries overtook Deaths just yesterday, Feb 2. I guess that bespeaks initial lack of detection and treatment, leaving some patients fatally unsupported. It's good to see that countermeasures seem to be taking hold.[/QUOTE]My take on it is, it bespeaks how long it takes for the disease to run its course, how fast it's spreading, and how virulent it is.

Note that the numbers of deaths and recoveries are in the hundreds, while the number of cases is in the tens of thousands. According to the figures in the charts, around 95% of cases are neither dead nor recovered.

You could keep the number of deaths greater than the number of recoveries if the disease were spreading fast enough. Using the estimate of a 2% mortality rate, and a 2-week time for the disease to completely run its course (whatever that means; perhaps when the patient is no longer shedding virus), that would require a more than 50-fold increase in cases every two weeks. That might happen initially, but it couldn't continue for long.

a1call 2020-02-04 03:41

Not having a medical degree, I won't know the answer to the following question unless I ask:
Is there anyway to isolate the antibodies from people who have recovered and create vaccines using them?
Thank you for any clarification.

BTW Relevant thread on my old board:


[url]https://forum.cosmoquest.org/showthread.php?170332-Disease-and-pandemics-thread-(because-it-s-science)&p=2503798#post2503798[/url]



I found the following after posting:
[url]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_immunity[/url]

[QUOTE]
Artificially acquired passive immunity is a short-term immunization achieved by the transfer of antibodies, which can be administered in several forms; as human or animal blood plasma or serum, as pooled human immunoglobulin for intravenous (IVIG) or intramuscular (IG) use, as high-titer human IVIG or IG from immunized donors or from donors recovering from the disease, and as monoclonal antibodies (MAb). Passive transfer is used to prevent disease or used prophylactically in the case of immunodeficiencydiseases, such as hypogammaglobulinemia.[11][12] It is also used in the treatment of several types of acute infection, and to treat poisoning.[2] Immunity derived from passive immunization lasts for a few weeks to three to four months.[13][14]There is also a potential risk for hypersensitivity reactions, and serum sickness, especially from gamma globulin of non-human origin.[8]Passive immunity provides immediate protection, but the body does not develop memory, therefore the patient is at risk of being infected by the same pathogen later unless they acquire active immunity or vaccination.[8]

[/QUOTE]

ewmayer 2020-02-04 20:38

[QUOTE=a1call;536623]Not having a medical degree, I won't know the answer to the following question unless I ask:
Is there anyway to isolate the antibodies from people who have recovered and create vaccines using them?[/QUOTE]

Yes, for example for Ebola there has been some progress made on this front:

[url=https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/21/3/14-1838_article]Treatment of Ebola Virus Infection with Antibodies from Reconvalescent Donors[/url] | CDC
[quote]Clinical evidence suggests that antibodies from reconvalescent donors (persons who have recovered from infection) may be effective in the treatment of Ebola virus infection. Administration of this treatment to Ebola virus–infected patients while preventing the transmission of other pathogenic viruses may be best accomplished by use of virus-inactivated reconvalescent plasma.[/quote]
But if you read beyond the abstract of this CDC article, you'll note progress has been a slow, multiyear slog, and even if an effective antibody-based vaccine is found, scaling it up to fight a global pandemic does not seem to be in the cards - had such cutting-edge methods been used against, say, the 1918 Spanish flu, the progress of the disease would have not been slowed one whit, because it would have circled the globe by the time the vaccine development had just got its boots on, to paraphrase Winston Churchill's famous saying about lies vs truth.

a1call 2020-02-04 21:28

Nice find [B]ewmayer[/B].
Thank you for sharing it.
As the expected development of a vaccine is 1 year away and the fact that one might expect that in a few weeks there will be thousands of recovered individuals in the outbreak center, the treatment might be a useful tool in fighting the spread of the coronavirus.
To paraphrase an artist currently known as the unknown artist, desperate times call for desperate measures. Consider the immediate passive immunization of limited number of people willing to go to the outbreak regions as aid, delivery-personnel and health-care professionals until a vaccine is developed.

ETA A non medical alternative would be to use the same recovered individuals for the above tasks if feasible, rather than cutting them off from the rest of the world, once it can be established that they are not coronavirus carriers.

ewmayer 2020-02-04 23:53

Meanwhile, there may be a large-scale outbreak occurring in Kerala, India:

[url=https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/kerala-declares-coronavirus-a-state-calamity-hong-kong-reports-first-death/article30732263.ece]Kerala declares coronavirus a state calamity, Hong Kong reports first death[/url] | Hindu Business Line
[quote]Kerala, the first [Indian] state to report infection of nCoronavirus with three confirmed cases till now, has declared it a state level disaster with 84 persons in hospitals and 2,155 other under home quarantine.[/quote]
Note that Kerala is on the SW coast, about as far from China as one can get in India. It remains to be seen how many of those in-hospital and under-quarantine persons have 2019-nCov.

LaurV 2020-02-05 02:42

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;536620]My take on it is, it bespeaks how long it takes for the disease to run its course, how fast it's spreading, and how virulent it is.
[/QUOTE]
Haha, reading all this thread in the light of the new title is really funny... Sorry, I could not stop myself. That was a good spark from whoever renamed the thread, but now I am a bit afraid to talk math (even at the crackpot level), because some official here will put me in quarantine... This guys didn't go to church/temple too often :razz:

Dr Sardonicus 2020-02-05 03:17

A worldwide health emergency, huh?
 
Meanwhile, here in the good ol' USA, the CDC reports that the 2019-2020 seasonal flu has so far infected around 19 million people, hospitalized 180,000 people, and killed 10,000 people.

VBCurtis 2020-02-05 05:03

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;536709]Meanwhile, here in the good ol' USA, the CDC reports that the 2019-2020 seasonal flu has so far infected around 19 million people, hospitalized 180,000 people, and killed 10,000 people.[/QUOTE]

A death rate of 1 in 2000. Meanwhile, the death rate for this coronavirus is (naively) 2%, but likely quite a bit higher as many of the "confirmed" cases are people still hospitalized.

An illness 40-50 times more deadly than the flu is rather important to keep from infecting as frequently as the flu does, don't you think? For the regular population (say, those between 7 and 70 years old), the coronavirus may be 100x as deadly or more. That's kind of a big deal.

EDIT: "naively" refers to dividing the deaths by the confirmed number of cases, per the Johns Hopkins data linked & referenced earlier in this thread.

kladner 2020-02-05 06:15

Thank you for making those points, Curtis. Just the flu statistics stunned me: the epitome of naivete. I have so long evaded the annual flu, with or without the vaccine, that I don't really appreciate its severity.

I got both the current flu shot and the pneumonia vaccine a week ago. I'm amazed that I haven't gotten sick more often in almost seven years of an intensely public contact occupation. I'm not ready to start wearing a mask, but I am going to increase my hand washing routine, and start hitting the hand sanitizer, that's all over the place at work, a lot more.

a1call 2020-02-05 06:16

A Google search is the only thing I can do.
[url]https://www.google.com/search?q=Treating+influenza+by+blood+transfusion[/url]
Perhaps it can somehow help.

CRGreathouse 2020-02-05 06:41

[QUOTE=ewmayer;536668]But if you read beyond the abstract of this CDC article, you'll note progress has been a slow, multiyear slog, and even if an effective antibody-based vaccine is found, scaling it up to fight a global pandemic does not seem to be in the cards - had such cutting-edge methods been used against, say, the 1918 Spanish flu, the progress of the disease would have not been slowed one whit, because it would have circled the globe by the time the vaccine development had just got its boots on, to paraphrase Winston Churchill's famous saying about lies vs truth.[/QUOTE]

There's a much quicker approach here -- there's an existing (research) vaccine for another coronavirus, SARS, which completed Phase I trials. The current proposal, as I understand it, is to follow a similar path to the development of that vaccine. It's expected that it would only take around 3-4 months (!) to develop the vaccine, but of course longer than that to test it -- call it 3 months minimum for Phase I, then you could just possibly get it licensed for compassionate use while further testing is done. (The company behind it would want to accelerate testing as much as possible because they can only give it away under compassionate use, IIRC.)

So best-case scenario would be July 2020, a more reasonable timeline would be early 2021.

ewmayer 2020-02-05 22:23

Couple guest posts, with intros by site owner Yves Smith, over on NC:

[url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/02/coronavirus-australia-faces-calamity.html]Coronavirus: Australia Faces Calamity[/url] | naked capitalism

[url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/02/public-health-officials-offer-scant-details-on-u-s-coronavirus-patients.html]Public Health Officials Offer Scant Details On U.S. Coronavirus Patients[/url] | naked capitalism: In this one Yves' intro is more or less an override, she lists a bunch of critical issues not mentioned in the guest post from Kaiser Health News. Starting with touchscreens-as-disease-vectors, she then gets to the broken-by-design US Healthcare system and the vulnerability of key supply chains to a global pandemic:
[quote]The second basis for concern is what looks to be overconfidence of US officials in our “public health system,” as if we have one. The fact that, depending on how the study was conducted, between 44% and 64% of Americans say they skip or delay medical treatment alone says we have huge gaps in our “system”. And remember, in the early stages, the coronavirus symptoms seem like those of a winter flu until they progress to pneumonia in severe cases.
...
Perhaps much more is happening behind the scenes, but what has kept infection numbers and therefore risk in the US low so far is the (admittedly a bit late) lockdown of Wuhan and other key cities in Hubei, the halting of passenger flights to the US, and putting evacuees in quarantine.

But while the potential for transmission from China has been throttled down to close to nil, enough people left Hubei before the lockdown to allow for infection through other countries, and we may see those avenues become meaningful risks. Thailand admitted a full week ago that it can’t stop the spread of the coronavirus. Kerala just announced that the coronavirus was a “state emergency” although it is not clear what that means.
...
Epidemiologists are concerned that airlines were slow to cut off flights from China to Africa. Another issue is that while passenger transportation can be shut down fairly quickly, freight is another matter. Readers have no doubt seem much gnashing of teeth over the damage the coronavirus poses to global supply chains, both due to restrictions on transport as well as restrictions on movements of people, which will have knock-on effects to production. But there’s also the disease transmission issue. China has land transport routes though Asia to the Middle East; truckers may have taken infection with them.

Needless to say, disease containment measures could have even more severe knock-on effects, as sometimes discussed in comments. From Transport Geography:

[b]o Food.[/b] Contemporary food production and distribution rely on low levels of inventory, particularly to avoid wastes of perishable products on store shelves. On average, supermarkets have between 2 to 5 days of inventory of perishable goods (dairy, produce, meat) and about 1 to 2 weeks for other goods (pasta, canned goods, etc.). It is worth underlining that these figures are for a normal and stable demand. In the case of a pandemic, available food supplies could quickly be exhausted through hoarding behavior. Such behavior is commonly observed during an acute weather event such as a hurricane where store shelves are quickly emptied. Food security is therefore defined by the ability of the transportation workers to move food from producers to the bulk-storage facilities, to the processor and lastly to the grocer.

[b]o Energy.[/b] The provision and distribution of energy are critical to the functioning of a modern economy and society. For instance, about 40% of the world’s supply of electricity is generated by burning coal (50% for the United States). Coal power plants maintain a fairly low stockpile, about 30 days, and rely on a constant supply from major coal mining regions, which tend to be far away. While a pandemic would not directly damage energy systems, many energy distribution systems could be threatened through the removal of essential personnel from the workplace for weeks or months and impaired transportation capabilities to supply power plants.

[b]o Medical supplies.[/b] A pandemic is obviously associated with a surge in the use of medical facilities, equipment and pharmaceutical products. Global drug production is controlled by a few large conglomerates that maintain a limited number of facilities at selected locations. Commonly, a single drug is produced at a single plant. If global distribution systems were impaired during a pandemic, many essential drugs would have difficulties to reach patients while limited stockpiles maintained at medical facilities would quickly run out. For instance, over 95% of all generic drugs used in the United States are made offshore, primarily in China and India. A similar pattern applies to critical medical equipment such as ventilators. Even simple respiratory masks could quickly run out. In 2017, Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico and substantially damaged infrastructures, particularly the power generation system. In the aftermath, a shortage of saline solutions was felt because Puerto Rico was a major supplier of these solutions to hospitals across the Americas. All these shortages are likely to result in additional deaths.

In other words, the US may continue to be lucky. But I wouldn’t bet on our ability to respond well to a real crisis.[/quote]

sdbardwick 2020-02-06 02:16

Arrgh! Sloppy research really damages credibility. Why throw in erroneous figures that aren't key to the central point?
[QUOTE]o Energy. The provision and distribution of energy are critical to the functioning of a modern economy and society. For instance, about 40% of the world’s supply of electricity is generated by burning coal (50% for the United States). Coal power plants maintain a fairly low stockpile, about 30 days, and rely on a constant supply from major coal mining regions, which tend to be far away. While a pandemic would not directly damage energy systems, many energy distribution systems could be threatened through the removal of essential personnel from the workplace for weeks or months and impaired transportation capabilities to supply power plants.[/QUOTE]
As of 2018, [URL="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3"]US generates 27.5% of electricity from coal.[/URL]

ewmayer 2020-02-06 02:36

[QUOTE=sdbardwick;536838]Arrgh! Sloppy research really damages credibility. Why throw in erroneous figures that aren't key to the central point?

As of 2018, [URL="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3"]US generates 27.5% of electricity from coal.[/URL][/QUOTE]

Thanks for the link - but I note total fossil fuel is nearly 2/3 of the total, so 50% of US power generation relying on sources that have long supply lines and cannot be stockpiled on-site for multi-month supply interruptions seems not unreasonable.

CRGreathouse 2020-02-06 03:31

[QUOTE=ewmayer;536840]Thanks for the link - but I note total fossil fuel is nearly 2/3 of the total, so 50% of US power generation relying on sources that have long supply lines and cannot be stockpiled on-site for multi-month supply interruptions seems not unreasonable.[/QUOTE]

Almost all of the rest is gas, which use pipelines. They don't keep anything on hand.

sdbardwick 2020-02-06 03:47

[QUOTE=ewmayer;536840]Thanks for the link - but I note total fossil fuel is nearly 2/3 of the total, so 50% of US power generation relying on sources that have long supply lines and cannot be stockpiled on-site for multi-month supply interruptions seems not unreasonable.[/QUOTE]
Yes, your point is valid; had the original author stated something similar I wouldn't take issue. However, that validity is rather besides my point (which, I admit wasn't sufficiently explicit) that portraying incorrect information as fact severely damages credibility.

EDIT: Although the author of the NC post gets a partial pass; the error is in the quoted article from [URL="https://transportgeography.org/?page_id=8869"]Transport Geography[/URL].

ewmayer 2020-02-06 21:36

[url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/death-toll-tops-560-testing-lab-opens-in-wuhan-virus-update]Hospital Says Chinese Doctor Has Officially Died: Virus Update[/url] | Bloomberg News
[quote]The Chinese doctor [Li Wenliang] who issued an early warning about the coronavirus has died, said the hospital where he worked, ending hours of confusion about his status.

The city of Wuhan told residents to begin reporting their body temperature daily, and the large port city of Tianjin said it would restrict residents’ movement, part of steps across the country to stop the coronavirus outbreak from spreading. In Beijing, the Chinese government voiced anger as countries placed more restrictions on travelers.

Tesla temporarily closed its stores in the nation, and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV warned that a China-related parts shortage could force it to idle a European plant, according to a report. Equities rose on China’s plans to cut tariffs on U.S. imports and optimism the global economy can withstand the impact of the virus.[/quote]
Aside: Ah, so that's why the insane run-up in TSLA shares - up more than 2x from 1 January's already hugely-inflated-based-on-fundamentals level to the [url=https://wolfstreet.com/2020/02/04/im-in-awe-of-how-tesla-is-now-a-supernatural-phenomenon/]insane 20% pop on 4 Feb[/url] - has been dented a smidge in the past 2 days.
[quote]The doctor’s status had been subject to hours of confusion after earlier reports of his death on Chinese social media were deleted and replaced by messages saying he was being treated.

“Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist at our hospital had unfortunately been infected when he worked on fighting against the coronavirus outbreak,” Wuhan Central Hospital said in a post on the Chinese social platform Weibo.

The hospital said he died at 2:58 a.m. in China “after all efforts to save him failed.”

Li was in his 30s, according to a report by the Chinese media outlet Caixin.[/quote]

ewmayer 2020-02-07 21:23

Forgot to note yesterday - I'm a bit worried about George: He and his wife are in midst of a nearly-2-month-long cruise along the Asian coast, with originally-scheduled stops including places like Hong Kong. Have heard about several cruise ships in that area having been quarantined, some as a precaution, others due to an actual outbreak onboard of 2019-nCov. I see George's last forum activity was today, but last post was 29 Jan.

George, if you happen to read this thread, would you be so kind as to let us know how you're doing?

Prime95 2020-02-08 01:14

All is well, in Darwin today.

Yesterday the cruise line informed us they were cancelling the Hong Kong stop. A major headache for the cruise line and many passengers as that was a disembarkation/embarkation point. Once they pick a replacement port they'll need to reroute about a thousand airline itineraries.

I'm a little surprised at the decision as there are still only 26 virus cases in Hong Kong. I suppose both airlines and cruise passengers are panicky about flying into or out of there.

tServo 2020-02-08 15:09

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;536846]Almost all of the rest is gas, which use pipelines. They don't keep anything on hand.[/QUOTE]

Not true. They store it in huge underground caverns. As of 2000, there was 3.9 trillion cubic feet of storage space available. I don't know the current usage %.

[URL="http://naturalgas.org/naturalgas/storage/"]http://naturalgas.org/naturalgas/storage/[/URL]

Dr Sardonicus 2020-02-08 15:23

[QUOTE=tServo;537075]Not true. They store it in huge underground caverns. As of 2000, there was 3.9 trillion cubic feet of storage space available. I don't know the current usage %.

[URL="http://naturalgas.org/naturalgas/storage/"]http://naturalgas.org/naturalgas/storage/[/URL][/QUOTE]
In 2015, there was one [i]heck[/i] of a leak from a storage well near LA. Try search parameters "aliso canyon gas leak" or "porter ranch gas leak" if you care to look it up.

kladner 2020-02-10 06:10

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;537078]In 2015, there was one [I]heck[/I] of a leak from a storage well near LA. Try search parameters "aliso canyon gas leak" or "porter ranch gas leak" if you care to look it up.[/QUOTE]
I was remembering the same event. It was an awful greenhouse gas emission. Such a facility leaked near Houston and made an immense torch that was visible many miles away. I have tried to track this down, but can't find the right search terms. However, I saw it while traveling from Houston to Chicago.

When I was [U]much younger[/U] there was an oil well blowout between Houston and Galveston, Texas. It burned for a long time, and could be seen and heard at a considerable distance. It also produced some kind of ash that fell on our yard miles away in Dickinson, TX.

Uncwilly 2020-02-11 01:00

[QUOTE=kladner;537192]I was remembering the same event. It was an awful greenhouse gas emission. Such a facility leaked near Houston and made an immense torch that was visible many miles away.[/QUOTE]The issue with the LA one vs the one that you mentioned is that when the CH[SUB]4[/SUB] is burnt it makes CO[SUB]2[/SUB]. While CH[SUB]4[/SUB] may not last as long in the atmosphere, it is a much more potent GHG. Flare it off and the problem is reduced. That is part is why landfills flare off their gas (if they don't burn it in a power plant or co-gen.

ewmayer 2020-02-12 21:36

[url=www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/viewpoint/viral-alarm-when-fury-overcomes-fear]Viral Alarm: When Fury Overcomes Fear[/url] | China File: [i]An Essay by Xu Zhangrun, Translated and Annotated by Geremie R. Barmé[/i]
[quote][b]Translator’s Introduction[/b]
In July 2018, the Tsinghua University professor Xu Zhangrun published an unsparing critique of the Chinese Communist Party and its Chairman of Everything, Xi Jinping. Xu warned of the dangers of one-man rule, a sycophantic bureaucracy, putting politics ahead of professionalism and the myriad other problems that the system would encounter if it rejected further reforms. That philippic was one of a cycle of works that Xu wrote during a year in which he alerted his readers to pressing issues related to China’s momentous struggle with modernity, the state of the nation under Xi Jinping and the mixed prospects for its future. Those essays will be published in a collection titled Six Chapters from the 2018 Year of the Dog by Hong Kong City University Press in May this year.

Although he was demoted by Tsinghua University in March 2019 and banned from teaching, writing and publishing, Xu has remained defiant. His latest polemical work—“When Fury Overcomes Fear”—translated below, appeared online on February 4, 2020 as the coronavirus epidemic swept China and infections overseas sparked concern around the world.[/quote]

a1call 2020-02-13 17:50

[QUOTE=a1call;536718]A Google search is the only thing I can do.
[url]https://www.google.com/search?q=Treating+influenza+by+blood+transfusion[/url]
Perhaps it can somehow help.[/QUOTE]

Glad someone is thinking alike:


helpful (@lifetree22)
2020-02-13, 12:03 PM
After tried in 12 ICU patients who were at a life survival critical period with the processed plasma from the recently fully recovered #coronavirus patients, all of them are now getting much better! China began to encourage the recent fully recovered patients to donate blood. pic.twitter.com/ydQVk0bcun

Download the Twitter app

a1call 2020-02-14 04:06

More on an earlier subject from "An expert from Wuhan":
[QUOTE]
"There are large numbers of antibodies in recovered patients and this can fight the virus. I sincerely hope the recovered patients can come to hospitals to donate plasma so that we can work together to rescue the patients who are still struggling with the disease."

[/QUOTE]

[url]http://chinaplus.cri.cn/podcast/detail/2/44387[/url]

ewmayer 2020-02-14 21:21

More on the antibody front, in readable-article 9as opposed to podcast) form: [url]https://www.btimesonline.com/articles/126667/20200214/coronavirus-treatment-antibodies-from-recovered-patients-raise-hopes-for-potential-cure.htm[/url]

More on traditional-vaccine development efforts: [url]https://www.btimesonline.com/articles/126666/20200214/here-s-why-who-coronavirus-vaccine-18-months-away.htm[/url]

And experts remind us that, like other rapidly mutating RNA viruses such as influenza, a vaccine developed based on one strain of 2019-nCoV will likely provide at best partial immunity from subsequently emerging strains: [url]https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/its-possible-for-coronavirus-to-reinfect-recovered-patients-chinese-expert-warns/[/url]

ewmayer 2020-02-19 21:51

[url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0]Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro[/url] | Nature

And on the cruise-ship clusterf*ck:

[url=https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/science-health/quarantine-cruise-ship-yokohama-comes-question-hit-virus-incubator/]Quarantined vessel or virus incubator? Scientists skeptical of Diamond Princess protocols[/url] | Japan Times -- Related reader discussion over on NC, with link to suitably appalling video, [url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/02/links-2-19-2020.html#comment-3295674]here[/url].

Uncwilly 2020-02-19 22:07

[QUOTE=ewmayer;537952]Quarantined vessel or virus incubator? [/QUOTE]RIP George?

ewmayer 2020-02-19 22:25

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;537953]RIP George?[/QUOTE]

George checked into this thread last week - he didn't say which crusie ship he was on, but it wasn't the Diamond Princess, thank goodness. Said they were anchored off Darwin, Autralia, and all was well. Hopefully that remains the case. But given just this one horrific example of tourists spreading the virus far and wide -- yeesh. And all those "repatriation flights" we've been hearing about ... do we really know what the appropriate quarantine period is? I'm reminded of the fact that tourists were the pandemic vector in the underrated Terry Gilliam film [i]12 Monkeys[/i].

Prime95 2020-02-20 06:08

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;537953]RIP George?[/QUOTE]

Leaving the land of LaurV today. Cambodia and Vietnam are next.

a1call 2020-02-20 10:28

[QUOTE=Prime95;537972]Leaving the land of LaurV today. Cambodia and Vietnam are next.[/QUOTE]
It's good to see you are having a good time, while we are suffering here in silence waiting for M52 to show up.:smile:
Enjoy and keep safe and thanks for the Quick-Mathematics.:smile:

Prime95 2020-02-20 10:59

[QUOTE=Prime95;537972]Leaving the land of LaurV today. Cambodia and Vietnam are next.[/QUOTE]

Correction. Rest of cruise is essentially cancelled. Heading to Manila where we will be thrown off the boat on March 1.

Sigh, was looking forward to seeing Asia and Japan.

No need to fell sorry for me, I'm sure the cruise line will "make it right".

Prime95 2020-02-21 06:15

[QUOTE=Prime95;537981]Correction. Rest of cruise is essentially cancelled. Heading to Manila where we will be thrown off the boat on March 1.[/QUOTE]

Correction. Being evicted tomorrow in Bangkok.

Uncwilly 2020-02-21 15:00

[QUOTE=Prime95;538076]Correction. Being evicted tomorrow in Bangkok.[/QUOTE]Ben better hurry up and announce his new Prime before you get forcefully repatriated to the states.

ewmayer 2020-02-23 20:07

[url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51603251]Coronavirus: South Korea declares highest alert as infections surge[/url] - BBC News

Additional worrisome outbreaks in Italy and Iran, as evidence mounts of carriers who remain asymptomatic beyond the 14 days of the currently-standard quarantine regimen. I'm starting to think the odds of Japan being forced to cancel the upcoming Tokyo summer olympics are non-negligible. Of course the wider economic impacts are more important - proxy measurements such as air those of air pollution over China indicate to a huge % of industrial production there being shut down. In 2019 China had a net trade surplus with the rest of the world of roughly $1 trillion, i.e. the world sourced that net amount of good and services from China. What % of the production involved in that massive net outflow is currently idled due to the Coronavirus?

Looking just at the U.S., sure, we could go without much of the made-in-China stuff we buy every day for either the rest of the year or forever, but there are some crucial subcategories which will lead to major pain, if not outright crisis – notably pharmaceuticals, medical supplies, and a huge fraction of our industrial equipment and tooling. Sure, in the very long run some kind of global trade rebalancing and reshoring would be good for much of the neoliberalism-afflicted West, but in the near term, some very critical goods supply lines which will be difficult and time-consuming to recreate elsewhere will be significantly impacted. You better hope that any key prescriptions you or yours relies on to manage some nontrivial medical condition are not sourced in a now-shut-down part of China or rest of Asia, for example.

ewmayer 2020-02-25 21:08

o Possibly very bad news: [url=https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/]You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus[/url] | The Atlantic

o Possibly good news: [url=https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html]Moderna ships first batch of its rapid-developed experimental vaccine[/url] | CNN
[quote]Drugmaker Moderna Inc. has shipped the first batch of its rapidly developed coronavirus vaccine to U.S. government researchers, who will launch the first human tests of whether the experimental shot could help suppress the epidemic originating in China.

Moderna on Monday sent vaccine vials from its Norwood, Mass., manufacturing plant to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Md., the company said. The institute expects by the end of April to start a clinical trial of about 20 to 25 healthy volunteers, testing whether two doses of the shot are safe and induce an immune response likely to protect against infection, NIAID Director Anthony Fauci said in an interview. Initial results could become available in July or August.[/quote]

o [url=https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/20-0198_article]Potential Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Zhejiang Province, China, 2020 Emerging Infectious Diseases[/url] | CDC

o The ever-so-helpful World Health Organization, apparently concerned that talk of a Coronavirus pandemic might alarm hoi polloi, [url=https://fortune.com/2020/02/25/coronavirus-pandemichttps://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/-who/]has decided to retire the word "pandemic" from its official lexicon[/url]. So from now, one can discuss, say, "a set of largely overlapping regional outbreaks", but the dreaded P-word is [i]verba non grata[/i]. (Or would it be [i]verbus non gratus[/i]? Or maybe [i]E pluribus unum[/i]? Or possibly [i]Romani ite domum[/i]? Latin speakers, please help me out!)

o Interesting op-ed in [i]The Lancet[/i]: [url=https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930405-0]Facts are not enough[/url] (PDF)
[quote][W]e must ask questions usually considered outside the scope of international health. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern gives us a unique opportunity. First, what are the supreme guiding values of global health? Hitherto, the answer has been equity. But, as we have seen from China’s efforts to contain COVID-19, perhaps we should consider liberty an equally fundamental value. Without liberty of expression—for health workers, policy makers, the public, and media—there is no means to forge a common view about the future (including the future health) of a society. Second, how important is the political system for health? Global health is typically agnostic about the kind of political system a country chooses to adopt. Global health and its institutions see health systems as separate—technically, socially, economically—from the political ideologies of nations. This view is not sustainable. We cannot say that the terms of political engagement within a country are irrelevant to our hopes for health. Third, what is prosperity? Conventionally, prosperity means monetary wealth. But could we redefine prosperity to mean something else, something more? Prosperity as the well-being of the community in synchrony with its environment. Fourth, how should we consider the place of the human body in society? How do we better connect the social to the biological? How do we incorporate the world in which we live into our biological selves? Our bodies and the illnesses they express tell stories about our lives. Our task is to uncover those stories and to link them back to our bodies and our health. Fifth, what do we mean by health anyway? Whatever we say about the absence of disease or a state of complete wellbeing, the idea of health is also related to our sense of what our lives have been and what they might be in the future. Isn’t health contingent on the purpose we envision for our life, and the possibilities we have for enacting that purpose? In other words, isn’t health also about our capacity to achieve meaning in our lives?[/quote]
Here in the US, with its profoundly broken - but oh so profitable for the corporate for-profit breakers - healthcare system, perhaps the Cornavirus pandemic will help bring into much sharper focus the huge stakes in the Medicare For All debate going on in the run-up to this November's presidential election. As with the "common wisdom" about the "lifts all boats" benefits of a globalized economy and rich countries offshoring all their nasty, dirty "making stuff" industries to low-wage/low-environmental-standards which has resulted in the very extended supply chains whose vulnerability is being exposed by the current viral outbreak, perhaps reframing universal healthcare not just as a social justice imperative but as a national-security one will help.

kladner 2020-02-25 23:29

[QUOTE=ewmayer;538325]
................................................
o Interesting op-ed in [I]The Lancet[/I]: [URL="https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930405-0"]Facts are not enough[/URL] (PDF)

Here in the US, with its profoundly broken - but oh so profitable for the corporate for-profit breakers - healthcare system, perhaps the Cornavirus pandemic will help bring into much sharper focus the huge stakes in the Medicare For All debate going on in the run-up to this November's presidential election. As with the "common wisdom" about the "lifts all boats" benefits of a globalized economy and rich countries offshoring all their nasty, dirty "making stuff" industries to low-wage/low-environmental-standards which has resulted in the very extended supply chains whose vulnerability is being exposed by the current viral outbreak,[U] perhaps reframing universal healthcare not just as a social justice imperative but as a national-security one will help.[/u][/QUOTE]


Won't happen unless Mega-Giganto-Super Pharma gets their cut up front, guaranteed for a century, at least. Consider: "Making people healthier means we can't sell as great a volume of drugs. This is Discrimination! We demand Compensation!"

ewmayer 2020-02-27 21:34

[I split off the this-Latin-parrot-is-not-dead-he's-resting discussion into its own thread.]

o [url=https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-pandemic-frieden/index.html]Former CDC director: A coronavirus pandemic is inevitable. What now?[/url] | CNN

o [url=https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-will-mark-the-end-of-affluence-politics/]Covid-19 Will Mark the End of Affluence Politics[/url] | Matt Stoller, Wired
[quote][T]he coronavirus is going to introduce economic conditions with which few people in modern America are familiar: the prospect of shortages. After 25 years of offshoring and consolidation, we now rely on overseas production for just about everything. Now in the wake of the coronavirus, China has shut down much of its production; South Korea and Italy will shut down as well. Once the final imports from these countries have worked their way through the supply chains and hit our shores, it could be a while before we get more. This coronavirus will reveal, in other words, a crisis of production—and one that’s coming just in time for a presidential election.[/quote]

Dr Sardonicus 2020-02-27 22:43

[QUOTE=ewmayer;538473][I split off the this-Latin-parrot-is-not-dead-he's-resting discussion into its own thread.][/quote]

Thanks!

[quote]o [url=https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-pandemic-frieden/index.html]Former CDC director: A coronavirus pandemic is inevitable. What now?[/url] | CNN

o [url=https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-will-mark-the-end-of-affluence-politics/]Covid-19 Will Mark the End of Affluence Politics[/url] | Matt Stoller, Wired[/QUOTE]
Don't worry about a thing! [i]Il Duce[/i] has put Mike Pence in charge of the US response to the new coronavirus.

I guess his fumbling and bumbling an HIV outbreak while he was governor of Indiana proved "he has a certain talent for this."

a1call 2020-02-27 22:57

I recall reading somewhere at some point in time that Rare-Earth-Magnet manufactures in US all went bankrupt because they could not compete with cheap prices from Chinese manufacturers. The same mentioned that this left US in a vulnerable situation and dependant on China for the supply of this important to many businesses item.
I wonder how true this was/is.

VBCurtis 2020-02-28 00:12

The main American rare-earths mine was closed for many years, but re-opened (along the 15 freeway between LA and Vegas) in 2018 or so. Alas, the processing of the ore still mostly happens in China, so our self-reliance is still suspect. I wonder how difficult it will be to onshore such processing.

Dr Sardonicus 2020-02-28 23:42

Now, it seems an HHS employee has [url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/27/us-workers-without-protective-gear-assisted-coronavirus-evacuees-hhs-whistleblower-says/]filed a whistleblower complaint[/url] alleging that HHS workers sent to meet the first US evacuees from Wuhan had neither protective gear nor proper training. And that when she raised her concerns with her superiors, she was disregarded, apart from being given a choice between reassignment and termination.

From what I read in the article, if everything it says about the whistleblower is accurate, I imagine the higher-ups at HHS already know her identity.

ewmayer 2020-02-29 22:35

More on the WHO's conflicts of interest:
[i]
Why did Australia’s government declare #coronavirus a pandemic? It doesn’t trust the WHO. “The information from multiple international sources is that the WHO is under intense pressure from the Chinese government, and succumbing to it.” @V2019N [url]https://t.co/lHHy1VVChx[/url]

— James Massola (@jamesmassola) [url=https://twitter.com/jamesmassola/status/1233642990205169664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]February 29, 2020[/url]
[/i]
Another possible reason the WHO has so diligently avoided the dreaded P-word relates to financial interests -- apparently the triggering criterion for payouts of this special class of bonds started in 2017 is that the WHO pronounce it a pandemic:

[url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-pandemic-insurance-idUSKBN19J2JJ]World Bank launches 'pandemic bond' to tackle major outbreaks[/url] | Reuters

Dr Sardonicus 2020-03-01 00:54

Following news reports on COVID-19, I notice that the apparent fatality rate seems higher than the 2.5% or so it seemed to be previously.

This is especially noticeable with

Iran: 593 reported cases, 43 deaths (7.2%)

and

China: 79,251 reported cases, 2,835 deaths (3.57%)

The obvious explanation being put forth is that there are a [i]lot[/i] of undetected cases.

It is certainly possible that there are a lot of asymptomatic cases. It is also AFAIK possible that some people whose deaths have been laid to coronavirus had another significant contributing factor, or even died of something else. It is also possible that the virus has mutated to make it more virulent, or AFAIK so that it is [i]less[/i] virulent for a significant fraction of the population, making them asymptomatic, and their cases harder to detect.

ewmayer 2020-03-02 00:19

[url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-reinfection.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage]Article in the NYT just now re viral persistence in “recovered” individuals[/url]

And in associated "never let a crisis go to waste" news:

[url=https://theintercept.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-spending-bill-surveillance-patriot-act/]Coronavirus Spending Bill Could Be Used to Cement Spying Powers, Surveillance Critics in Congress Warned[/url] | The Intercept

CRGreathouse 2020-03-02 02:30

[QUOTE=ewmayer;538603]Another possible reason the WHO has so diligently avoided the dreaded P-word relates to financial interests -- apparently the triggering criterion for payouts of this special class of bonds started in 2017 is that the WHO pronounce it a pandemic:

[url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-pandemic-insurance-idUSKBN19J2JJ]World Bank launches 'pandemic bond' to tackle major outbreaks[/url] | Reuters[/QUOTE]

What are you suggesting, exactly? That a coalition of PEF bondholders are holding WHO hostage? That WHO has secretly purchased its own bonds so it could rake in German and Japanese money by failing to call pandemics? (As opposed to calling everything a pandemic and stealing bondholder money for use in nominally pandemic-stricken countries.)

CRGreathouse 2020-03-02 02:32

[QUOTE=Dr Sardonicus;538610]Following news reports on COVID-19, I notice that the apparent fatality rate seems higher than the 2.5% or so it seemed to be previously.

This is especially noticeable with

Iran: 593 reported cases, 43 deaths (7.2%)

and

China: 79,251 reported cases, 2,835 deaths (3.57%)

The obvious explanation being put forth is that there are a [i]lot[/i] of undetected cases.

It is certainly possible that there are a lot of asymptomatic cases. It is also AFAIK possible that some people whose deaths have been laid to coronavirus had another significant contributing factor, or even died of something else. It is also possible that the virus has mutated to make it more virulent, or AFAIK so that it is [i]less[/i] virulent for a significant fraction of the population, making them asymptomatic, and their cases harder to detect.[/QUOTE]

Yes, all of this. (But also note that stressed medical systems have higher death rates and can't be extrapolated easily.)

masser 2020-03-02 15:24

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;538681]What are you suggesting, exactly? That a coalition of PEF bondholders are holding WHO hostage? That WHO has secretly purchased its own bonds so it could rake in German and Japanese money by failing to call pandemics? (As opposed to calling everything a pandemic and stealing bondholder money for use in nominally pandemic-stricken countries.)[/QUOTE]

Are there any rules governing conflicts of interest regarding WHO employees? If so, who enforces those rules? I seem to recall a few cases in world history where people were shocked, shocked, to learn that the COI rules were weak, not enforced and/or abused.

ewmayer 2020-03-02 20:22

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;538681]What are you suggesting, exactly? That a coalition of PEF bondholders are holding WHO hostage? That WHO has secretly purchased its own bonds so it could rake in German and Japanese money by failing to call pandemics? (As opposed to calling everything a pandemic and stealing bondholder money for use in nominally pandemic-stricken countries.)[/QUOTE]

I simply noticed the curious recent deletion of the word "pandemic" from WHO's official lexicon, and the reports that China is pressuring the agency in matters regarding the coronavirus pa-, um, "really really widespread and growing bit of nastiness". When there' big money at stake, it's certainly far from unprecedented for influential wealthy people wth money on the line to exert pressure, often by way of politicians they have bought (or perhaps better, rented).

So how would a country like China "pressure" the WHO? Money is one obvious tack - the US has a long history of withholding (or threatening to) funding for the WHO's parent agency, the UN - surely they are not unique in that regard, they are simply the biggest $ contributor, giving them the most leverage. Wikipedia on WHO funding:
[quote]The WHO is financed by contributions from member states and outside donors. As of 2012, the largest annual assessed contributions from member states came from the United States ($110 million), Japan ($58 million), Germany ($37 million), United Kingdom ($31 million) and France ($31 million).[116] The combined 2012–2013 budget has proposed a total expenditure of $3,959 million, of which $944 million (24%) will come from assessed contributions.[/quote]
Note the mere 24% of funding that comes from "assessed contributions", i.e. assessed to member states. Thus, the "and outside donors" bit looms large. And by way of an example of the WHO bowing to pressure from a major member state, we again have China, which in the past has exerted its influence with regard to Taiwan's membership - same Wikipedia article:
[quote]Between 2009 and 2016 Taiwan was allowed to attend WHO meetings and events as an observer but was forced to stop due to renewed pressure from China.[150]

Political pressure from China has led to Taiwan being barred from membership of the WHO and other UN-affiliated organizations, and in 2017 to 2020 the WHO refused to allow Taiwanese delegates to attend the WHO annual assembly.[151] On multiple occasions Taiwanese journalists have been denied access to report on the assembly.[152]

In May 2018, the WHO denied access to its annual assembly by Taiwanese media reportedly due to demands from China.[153] Later in May 172 members of the United States House of Representatives wrote to the Director General of the World Health Organization to argue for Taiwan's inclusion as an observer at the WHA.[154] The United States, Japan, Germany, and Australia all support Taiwan's inclusion in WHO.[155][/quote]
More on the $ issue - I was unable to find anything on funding at the WHO homepage - perhaps it's there, but certainly not in any obvious spot or sidebar. But did find some more detail [url=https://www.cs.mcgill.ca/~rwest/wikispeedia/wpcd/wp/w/World_Health_Organization.htm]here[/url]:
[quote]WHO is financed by contributions from member states and from donors. In recent years, WHO's work has involved more collaboration, currently around 80 such partnerships, with NGOs and the pharmaceutical industry, as well as with foundations such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation. Voluntary contributions to the WHO from national and local governments, foundations and NGOs, other UN organizations, and the private sector (including pharmaceutical companies), now exceed that of assessed contributions (dues) from its 193 member nations.[/quote]

CRGreathouse 2020-03-03 02:40

[QUOTE=ewmayer;538754]So how would a country like China "pressure" the WHO?[/QUOTE]

You're answering the part that needs no answer. It's easy to exert pressure, I assume that the agency and its members can trivially be pressured. But who would pressure, and to what end? You've been too vague and it makes it hard to guess what you're pointing at.

ewmayer 2020-03-03 03:04

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;538779]You're answering the part that needs no answer. It's easy to exert pressure, I assume that the agency and its members can trivially be pressured. But who would pressure, and to what end? You've been too vague and it makes it hard to guess what you're pointing at.[/QUOTE]

I thought that was obvious - major holders of such pandemic-insurance bonds who are suffering business/investmen losses as a result of the, um, don't-call-it-a-pandemic.

More broadly, there is a very real and growing risk of a huge global economic disruption at least as bad as the 2008-9 global financial crisis, possibly approaching that of the 1930s Great Depression. The reason is globalization, which has both effectively guaranteed that [a] the virus will sweep the globe - the rapid rise in local case clusters in multiple countries including the US, which just began wider-scale testing, i.e. likely has hundreds of as-yet-undiagnosed cases, bears this out - and [b] that economic impacts will be amplified by the resulting huge reliance on global supply chains, in weakest-link fashion. The resulting utter loss of national-economic self-reliance ('autarky' is the fancy word the economists use for it, often in pejorative, isolationist-connoting fashion) by most of the 'developed' world is a recipe for catastrophe. NC post on this today:

[url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/03/coronavirus-bracing-for-the-economic-shockwave.html]Coronavirus: Bracing for the Economic Shockwave[/url] | naked capitalism

CRGreathouse 2020-03-03 05:05

[QUOTE=ewmayer;538780]I thought that was obvious - major holders of such pandemic-insurance bonds who are suffering business/investmen losses as a result of the, um, don't-call-it-a-pandemic.[/QUOTE]

So the premise is that there's a conspiracy of major bondholders to pressure the WHO and/or its members to avoid labeling this outbreak a pandemic. Evidence for this might include kompromat used on WHO members or evidence of bondholders conspiring. Evidence suggesting against this hypothesis might include the WHO labeling the outbreak a pandemic (not impossible under the scenario of course, but presumably less likely).

Dr Sardonicus 2020-03-03 12:58

I'd never heard of "pandemic bonds," so I looked them up. It only took a few minutes to find that, surprise surprise, the contracts under which these things are issued are designed to minimize the chances of having to pay out. Anyone who's filed an insurance claim is likely familiar with the concept.

Specifically, the "parametric triggers" for a payout for these "pandemic bonds" are, by design, extremely difficult to trip. They basically only kick in after an epidemic is already out of control, or well on the way. This has come up before, WRT the major Ebola outbreak a few years ago.

Generally speaking, these things have been criticized as having been designed so only the investors can win. They receive a high rate of return because the investment is supposedly risky. OTOH the terms of payout are written so as to make the bonds practically useless for what they were supposedly designed to do, which is to allow capital to move quickly to assist poor countries deal with a pandemic.

So there's no need to invoke a "conspiracy of bondholders." It's all in the fine print.

ewmayer 2020-03-03 19:35

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;538786]So the premise is that there's a conspiracy of major bondholders to pressure the WHO and/or its members to avoid labeling this outbreak a pandemic. Evidence for this might include kompromat used on WHO members or evidence of bondholders conspiring. Evidence suggesting against this hypothesis might include the WHO labeling the outbreak a pandemic (not impossible under the scenario of course, but presumably less likely).[/QUOTE]

You used the word 'conspiracy' - I did not. I merely allowed for the possibility that one or more parties, not necessarily acting in concert, with a financial interest in having WHO pronouce, or not pronounce, 'pandemic', might be pressuring the agency to serve their interests.

ewmayer 2020-03-07 00:01

[url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/03/coronavirus-kids-about-as-likely-as-adults-to-become-infected-what-happens-when-school-closures-become-widespread.html]Coronavirus: Kids About as Likely as Adults to Become Infected; What Happens When School Closures Become Widespread?[/url] | naked capitalism

ewmayer 2020-03-07 21:41

Sorry to again be the bearer of bad tidings, but w.r.to Covid-19, "all the news that is credible is not good, and all the news that is good is not credible":

o [url=https://theweek.com/speedreads/900488/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-all-fake-whistleblowers-residents-claim]China's coronavirus recovery is 'all fake,' whistleblowers and residents claim[/url] | The Week
[quote]China's claims of how it's handling coronavirus recovery should be taken with more than a few grains of salt.

Even before COVID-19 became a global crisis, Chinese leaders had been criticized for their handling of the situation and lack of transparency about the disease's progression. Things now look like they're on the upswing, and businesses even appear to be headed back to work — but whistleblowers and local officials tell [i]Caixin[/i] that's just a carefully crafted ruse.

Beijing has spent much of the outbreak pushing districts to carry on business as usual, with some local governments subsidizing electricity costs and even installing mandatory productivity quotas. Zhejiang, a province east of the epicenter city of Wuhan, claimed as of Feb. 24 it had restored 98.6 percent of its pre-coronavirus work capacity.

But civil servants tell [i]Caixin[/i] that businesses are actually faking these numbers. Beijing had started checking Zhejiang businesses' electricity consumption levels, so district officials ordered the companies to start leaving their lights and machinery on all day to drive the numbers up, one civil servant said. Businesses have reportedly falsified staff attendance logs as well — they "would rather waste a small amount of money on power than irritate local officials," [i]Caixin[/i] writes.

In Wuhan, officials have tried to make it appear that recovery efforts are going smoothly. But when "central leaders" personally survey disinfecting regimens and food delivery, local officials "make a special effort" for them and them alone, one resident told [i]Caixin[/i]. And in a video circulating on social media, residents can be seen shouting at visiting leaders from the apartments where they're being quarantined — "Fake, it's all fake." [url=https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-03-04/lights-are-on-but-no-ones-working-how-local-governments-are-faking-coronavirus-recovery-101524058.html]Read more at [i]Caixin[/i][/url].[/quote]

o [url=https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3]One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they’re preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds[/url] | Business Insider

Related, on NC's [url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/03/links-3-7-2020.html]daily Links page today[/url]:
[quote]This tweetstorm (hat tip guurst) is today’s must read. Unless infection rates slow down due to the weather getting warm and/or a LOT of social distancing, the US will be out of hospital beds and masks in May. The big qualifier is this won’t be evenly distributed. Cities where the disease hits first will have much faster spread, while small cities in states that haven’t had any cases yet will reach the crunch point a bit later. Oh, and since non-seniors who have health insurance are almost entirely in HMOs and PPOs, it’s not as if they have much in the way of choices as to where they go:
[i]
I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n

— Liz Specht (@LizSpecht) [url=https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]March 7, 2020[/url][/i][/quote]

tServo 2020-03-08 14:39

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539124]Sorry to again be the bearer of bad tidings, but w.r.to Covid-19, "all the news that is credible is not good, and all the news that is good is not credible":

o [url=https://theweek.com/speedreads/900488/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-all-fake-whistleblowers-residents-claim]China's coronavirus recovery is 'all fake,' whistleblowers and residents claim[/url] | The Week


o [url=https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3]One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they’re preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds[/url] | Business Insider

Related, on NC's [url=https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/03/links-3-7-2020.html]daily Links page today[/url]:[/QUOTE]

Liz Specht's predictions are chilling.

Also on NC's homepage is an article about how Taiwan is handling Covid and keeping it relatively under control ( only 45 cases so far ) despite a dense population on an island just a few miles from mainland China. The contrast to the U.S. is fascinating and depressing.

Dr Sardonicus 2020-03-09 01:33

Also making for sobering reading, [url=http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2020/cbnreport-02272020.html]What US Hospitals Should Do Now to Prepare for a COVID-19 Pandemic[/url]. It recommends using the planning assumptions for a flu pandemic.

The disparity between what is available, and what might be needed, is distressing.

Xyzzy 2020-03-09 11:07

[url]https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/[/url]

ewmayer 2020-03-09 18:54

[url=https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/]Testimony of a surgeon working in Bergamo, in the heart of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak[/url] | Reddit
[quote]«In one of the non-stop e-mails that I receive from my hospital administration on a more than daily basis, there was a paragraph on "how to be responsible on social media", with some recommendations that we all can agree on. After thinking for a long time if and what to write about what's happening here, I felt that silence was not responsible. I will therefore try to convey to lay-people, those who are more distant from our reality, what we are experiencing in Bergamo during these Covid-19 pandemic days. I understand the need not to panic, but when the message of the danger of what is happening is not out, and I still see people ignoring the recommendations and people who gather together complaining that they cannot go to the gym or play soccer tournaments, I shiver. I also understand the economic damage and I am also worried about that. After this epidemic, it will be hard to start over.

Still, beside the fact that we are also devastating our national health system from an economic point of view, I want to point out that the public health damage that is going to invest the country is more important and I find it nothing short of "chilling" that new quarantine areas requested by the Region has not yet been established for the municipalities of Alzano Lombardo and Nembro (I would like to clarify that this is purely personal opinion). I myself looked with some amazement at the reorganization of the entire hospital in the previous week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly "emptied", elective activities interrupted, intensive care unit freed to create as many beds as possible. Containers arriving in front of the emergency room to create diversified routes and avoid infections. All this rapid transformation brought in the hallways of the hospital an atmosphere of surreal silence and emptiness that we did not understand, waiting for a war that had yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would never come with such ferocity (I open a parenthesis: all this was done in the shadows, and without publicity, while several newspapers had the courage to say that private health care was not doing anything).

I still remember my night shift a week ago spent without any rest, waiting for a call from the microbiology department. I was waiting for the results of a swab taken from the first suspect case in our hospital, thinking about what consequences it would have for us and the hospital. If I think about it, my agitation for one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I have seen what is happening. Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. [u]Let's stop saying it's a bad flu[/u]. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few...[/quote]
[Italian Original: [url=https://bergamo.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_marzo_07/coronavirus-bergamo-medico-humanitas-facebook-situazione-drammatica-altro-che-normale-influenza-4fdf6866-6088-11ea-8d61-438e0a276fc4.shtml]Coronavirus a Bergamo, medico Humanitas su Facebook: «Situazione drammatica, altro che normale influenza»[/url].]

retina 2020-03-09 19:23

[QUOTE=ewmayer;539231][url=https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/]Testimony of a surgeon working in Bergamo, in the heart of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak[/url] | Reddit

[Italian Original: [url=https://bergamo.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_marzo_07/coronavirus-bergamo-medico-humanitas-facebook-situazione-drammatica-altro-che-normale-influenza-4fdf6866-6088-11ea-8d61-438e0a276fc4.shtml]Coronavirus a Bergamo, medico Humanitas su Facebook: «Situazione drammatica, altro che normale influenza»[/url].][/QUOTE]When all you see is the bad stuff then everything looks bad.

ewmayer 2020-03-09 19:35

[QUOTE=retina;539233]When all you see is the bad stuff then everything looks bad.[/QUOTE]

And the "good stuff" amidst what is happening in multiple countries and likely coming soon in the US as well, is what - stock markets offering discounts on their wares?


All times are UTC. The time now is 04:23.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.